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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 27-34页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin chen zi-tong Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Guangzhou 510641 China

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was *** ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than *** general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south ***,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the *** results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.

关键词： model initialization conditions GRAPES torrential rain cold bias

EVALUATION OF THE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES AND NUDGING TECHNIQUES IN GRAPES FOR WARM SECTOR TORRENTIAL RAINS USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第3期25卷 353-364页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin YANG Shuai chen zi-tong Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyCMAGuangzhou 510080 China Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 China

Sensitivities of parameterization schemes were conducted based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES) model. Surface observations were used to evaluate the simulations and to improve the model’s ability to simulate the extreme precipitation over southern China on 20 July 2016. The results showed that GRAPES captured the large-scale precipitation over southern China but failed to predict the extreme precipitation over Xinyi. The model showed a systematic cold biases by adopting different parameterization schemes. In particular, the ECMWF analyses data showed a strong cold bias over Guangdong province and Guangxi region. Observational nudging results showed that the surface temperature could largely help to alleviate the cold bias. The alleviation in the warm sector accounted for main improvement by the nudging scheme, and the RMSE was reduced by 1.56 degree from 3.25 degree to 1.69 degree by 1-h simulation and with 1.3 degree alleviation by 2-h simulation. Sensitivities using different parameterizations and the nudging scheme showed that the model’s underestimation of the precipitation was still present despite improvements in the predictions of surface temperature.

关键词： GRAPES extreme precipitation warm sector cold bias observational nudging

CAPABILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF GRAPES SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER A COMPLEX OROGRAPHY

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第2期25卷 180-191页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin YANG Shuai GUO Chun-ya chen zi-tong Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology CMA Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangdong Meteorological Observatory CMA

A comprehensive observational study on a warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) on 20 May 2016 over south China is presented with a pioneering examination of simulation capabilities based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM). The results show that the meso-scale convective boundary formed between north wind from mountainous areas and the south wind from plain regions as well as the cold outflows boundary both contribute to the convections over Xinyi, and the convections were blocked and stayed stagnant in the trumpet-shaped topography for about 8 hours which eventually caused the torrential *** verifications of the observational studies by simulations showed that GRAPES_TMM had better estimations of large-scale frontal precipitation than the local warm-sector torrential rains. The simulations of local torrential rains in the warm sector showed strong biases in precipitation location and amount. GRAPES_TMM also showed overestimated surface winds and a faster moving speed bias, as well as an overall underestimation of the nocturnal surface temperature during the WSTR. This work may lead to several prospective researches of its model improvements on model physics such as land surface process and PBL parameterization.

关键词： warm sector torrential rain(WSTR) trumpet-shaped topography GRAPES_TMM mesoscale convective boundary

Applicability of Temperature Discrete Equation to NMRF Boundary Layer Scheme in GRAPES Model

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第1期28卷 12-28页

作者： ZHANG Yan-xia chen zi-tong MENG Wei-guang XU Dao-shen Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

By deriving the discrete equation of the parameterized equation for the New Medium-Range Forecast(NMRF)boundary layer scheme in the GRAPES model,the adjusted discrete equation for temperature is obviously different from the original equation under the background of hydrostatic equilibrium and adiabatic *** the present research,three discrete equations for temperature in the NMRF boundary layer scheme are applied,namely the original(hereafter NMRF),the adjustment(hereafter NMRF-gocp),and the one in the YSU boundary-layer scheme(hereafter NMRF-TZ).The results show that the deviations of height,temperature,U and V wind in the boundary layer in the NMRF-gocp and NMRF-TZ experiments are smaller than those in the NMRF experiment and the deviations in the NMRF-gocp experiment are the *** deviations of humidity are complex for the different forecasting lead time in the three ***,there are obvious diurnal variations of deviations from these variables,where the diurnal variations of deviations from height and temperature are similar and those from U and V wind are also ***,the diurnal variation of humidity is relatively *** root means square errors of 2m temperature(T2m)and 10m speed(V10m)from the three experiments show that the error of NMRF-gocp is the smallest and that of NMRF is the *** is also a diurnal variation of T2m and V10m,where T2m has double peaks and V10m has only one *** of the discrete equations between NMRF and NMRF-gocp experiments shows that the deviation of temperature is likely to be caused by the calculation of vertical eddy diffusive coefficients of heating,which also leads to the deviations of other elements.

关键词： NMRF boundary layer scheme turbulent equation temperature discrete equation CMA-GD model

Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 319-329页

作者： chen zi-tong DAI Guang-feng WU Kai-xin ZHONG Shui-xin XU Dao-sheng Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

To support short-range weather forecasts,a high-resolution model(1km)is developed and technically upgraded in the South China Regional Center,including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and the predictor-corrector method for semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian(SISL)in model dynamical core,as well as the improvement of physical ***,the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developed and have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing *** experimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time *** batch test shows that the precipitation forecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km *** 1-km model is in operation with a rapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals,which can be applied to short-range forecasts and nowcasting.

关键词： numerical weather prediction reference atmosphere semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian rapidly updating cycle short-range forecast

Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第4期27卷 406-417页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin ZHUANG Yan HU Sheng chen zi-tong DING Wei-yu FENG Ye-rong DENG Tao LIU Xian-tong ZHANG Yan-xia XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China Hubei Meteorological Service Center Wuhan 430205 China

In the present study,the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were *** impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further *** results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over *** maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan *** 24-h and 48-h Threat Score(TS)of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and *** comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score(FSS)verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and *** water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(IVT)of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7·*** north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye(Cempaka)over south *** IVT over the lower troposphere(<500 hPa)showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level,especially in the planetary boundary layer(<700 hPa).More practical technique needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall,as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.

关键词： extreme rainfall CMA-GD IVT double-eyes distribution

Performance Evaluation of the GRAPES Model in Wind Simulations Over South China

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第1期27卷 1-9页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin chen zi-tong DING Wei-yu XU Dao-sheng ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin LIANG Jia-hao TIAN Qun WANG Li-wen Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510080 China

In the present study,the performance of the GRAPES model in wind simulation over south China was *** simulations were evaluated by using surface observations and two sounding stations in south *** results show that the GRAPES model could provide a reliable simulation of the distribution and diurnal variation of the *** showed a generally overestimated southerly wind speed especially over the Pearl River Delta region and the south of Jiangxi Province as well as the coastal region over south *** also exhibited a large number of stations with the opposite surface wind directions over the east of Guangxi and the south of Jiangxi during the nocturnalto-morning period,as well as an overall overestimation of surface wind over the coastal regions during the *** GRAPES could simulate the general evolutional characteristics of vertical wind profile,it underestimated wind speed above 900 hPa and overestimated wind speed below 900 *** the parameterization scheme of gravity wave drag proved to be an effective method to alleviate the systematic deviation of wind simulation,GRAPES still exhibited large errors in wind simulation,especially in the lower and upper troposphere.

关键词： GRAPES wind simulation overestimated surface wind systematic deviation

A Review on GRAPES-TMM Operational Model System at Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第4期26卷 495-504页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin chen zi-tong XU Dao-sheng DAI Guang-feng MENG Wei-guang ZHANG cheng-zhong ZHANG Yan-xia WU Kai-xin FENG Ye-rong chen De-hui XUE Ji-shan Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction/Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510641 China

This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for landsurface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

关键词： GRAPES-TMM TRAMS physical processes 9-3-1 forecasting system

Identification and analysis of root causes of desertification in semi-arid region of China──a case study from Ejin Horo Banner, Inner Mongolia

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2000年第2期10卷 108-118页

作者： chen Jie, GONG zi-tong, GAO Shang-yu (Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000, China)

A case study on the driving forces of desertification in the semi-arid region was carried out in the Ejin Horo Banner of Inner Mongolia. The occurrence and development of desertification were demonstrated and its driving factors were identified and analyzed. The results obtained indicated that over-reclamation of land overgrazing and denudation of natural vegetation cover were immediate and dominant factors causing land vulnerability to desertification. For a better understanding of the deep-rooted causes of the inappropriate land use and agricultural practices, the problems arising from various socioeconomic facets were comprehensively discussed.

关键词： desertification, land degradation send-arid region human activities, climatic variation

GRAPES模式中地面通量在一次台风数值模拟中的敏感性试验研究

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热带气象学报 2013年第3期29卷 403-410页

作者：戴光丰陈子通中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/区域数值天气预报重点实验室广东广州510080

在中尺度天气数值预报模式(GRAPES)的边界层方案(MRF)中,地面通量的计算与模式分层有直接关系,可能引起计算结果的不准确。在模式中引入Beljaars方案,通过比较分析模拟的台风地表特征量及形势场和风场表明,引入的方案对台风强度和路径... 详细信息

在中尺度天气数值预报模式(GRAPES)的边界层方案(MRF)中,地面通量的计算与模式分层有直接关系,可能引起计算结果的不准确。在模式中引入Beljaars方案,通过比较分析模拟的台风地表特征量及形势场和风场表明,引入的方案对台风强度和路径的预报效果都起到改善作用。对台风"巨爵"个例的模拟表明,引入Beljaars方案之后,其地表的潜热、感热通量均明显增强,摩擦速度最大值增大,说明地表向上传输的热通量、水汽通量、动量通量均增强,这都有利于台风的发展和加强,因此模拟的台风路径和强度也更接近实况;从台风结构来看,方案二模拟的台风倾斜垂直结构没有方案一的明显,暖心结构有所加强;从风场分析来看,台风眼区的风速低值中心可延伸到500 hPa的高度上,明显高于方案一。

关键词：应用气象学台风边界层方案地面通量数值模拟