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Differential Hydrological Grey Model (DHGM) with self-memory function and its application to flood forecasting

Science china(Technological sciences) 2009年第4期52卷 1039-1049页

作者： chen xiangdong1, xia jun1,2 & xu qian3.1 key laboratory of water cycle and related land surface processes, {3. of geographic sciences and natural resources Research, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100101, china 2 State key laboratory of {13. resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 43.072, china 3.School of Hydrology and {13. resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, china 1. key laboratory of water {3. and related land surface processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China 2. State key laboratory of water {3. and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China 3. School of Hydrology and water resources Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China

This paper addresses a problem of flood forecasting with the self-memory function. Considering flood forecasting’s uncertainty and updating demand, a hybrid hydrological model, namely Differential Hy- drological Grey Model with self-memory function (DHGM-SM), is developed. The model has two fold features. One is to establish a self-memorization equation linked with DHGM, that could extract useful information from past data series and realize updating of hydrological dynamic process. The other is that this model has higher efficiency relative to original hydrological model without self-memory func- tion. This approach was applied to river flow forecasting of two representative basins in Tunxi of South china and Daqinggou of North china. It is shown that this hybrid method has satisfactory forecasting accuracy by examination of both calibration and validation.

关键词： differential grey model the self-memorization principle real-time forecasting faded-memory recursive least square method

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Impact of Lower Boundary Condition of Richards＇ Equation on water, Energy, and Soil Carbon Based on Coupling land surface and Biogeochemical Models

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Pedosphere 2018年第3期28卷 497-510页

作者： chen xiangdong xu LIANG {3. jun SHE Dun{3.n china institute of water {3. and Hydropower Research Beijing 100036( China) State key laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of water {3. in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100036( China) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 15261( USA) State key laboratory of water {3. and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072( China)

Soil moisture has a significant influence on water, energy, and carbon biogeochemical cycles. A numerical method for solving Richards＇ equation is usually used for simulating soil moisture. Selection of a lower boundary condition for Richards＇ equation will further affect the simulation results for soil moisture, water cycle, energy balance, and carbon biogeochemical processes. In this study, the soil water movement dynamic sub-model of a hydrologically based land surface model, the variable infiltration capacity （VIC） model, was modified using the finite difference method （FDM） to solve a mixed form of Richards＇ equation. In addition, the VIC model was coupled with a terrestrial biogeochemical model, the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus （CASACNP model）. The no-flux boundary （NB） and free-drainage boundary （FB） were selected to investigate their impacts on simulations of the water, energy, and soil carbon cycles based on the coupling model. The NB and FB had different influences on the water, energy, and soil carbon simulations. The water and energy simulations were more sensitive, while the soil carbon simulation was less sensitive to FB than to NB. Free-drainage boundary could result in lower soil moisture, evaporation, runoff, and heterotrophic respiration and higher surface soil temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil carbon content. The impact of the lower boundary condition on simulation would be greater with an increase in soil permeability. In the silt loam soil case, evaporation, runoff, and soil respiration of FB were nearly 169, 13., and 1% smaller, respectively, compared to those of NB.

关键词： CASACNP model free-drainage boundary no-flux boundary simulation model soil moisture VIC model water and energy balance

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