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Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals:A case study of Guangzhou,China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2022年第11期32卷 2251-2270页

作者： HU Xintao LI Zhihui cai yumei WU Feng Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchCASBeijing 100101China College of Land Science and Technology China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100193China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Research Centre for Territorial Spatial Planning Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of ChinaBeijing 100812China

Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon *** on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial *** study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction ***,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use *** Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals *** simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development ***’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern *** the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in *** with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more ***,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development *** study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spati

关键词： carbon peak and neutrality goals urban construction land demand prediction spatial pattern simulation Guangzhou

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Transmission identification of Escherichia coli aerosol in chicken houses to their environments using ERIC-PCR

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Science China(Life Sciences) 2008年第2期51卷 164-173页

作者： DUAN HuiYong CHAI TongJie cai yumei ZHONG ZhaoBing YAO MeiLing ZHANG XingXiao College of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine Shandong Agricultural UniversityTai'an 271018China

In order to study E. coli aerosol spreading from chicken houses to their surrounding air, air samples, including indoor and outdoor air (upwind 10 and 50 m as well as downwind 10, 50, 100, 200 and 400 m away) of 5 chicken houses were collected using six-stage Andersen microbial samplers and Reuter-Centrifugal samplers (RCS). E. coli concentrations (CFU/m3 air) collected from different sampling sites were calculated. E. coli strains from chicken feces samples were also isolated. Furthermore, the enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus (ERIC)-PCR method was applied to amplify the isolated E. coli strain DNA samples. Through the genetic similarity analyses of the E. coli obtained from different sampling sites, the spreading of bioaerosol from animal houses to the ambient air was characterized. The results showed that the isolated E. coli concentrations in indoor air (9―63 CFU/m3) in 5 chicken houses were higher than those in upwind and downwind air, but there were no significant differences between the indoor and downwind sites 10 m away from all the 5 houses (P>0.05). The phylogenetic tree indicated that a part of the E. coli (34.1%) isolated from indoor air had 100% similarity with those isolated from feces, and that most of E. coli isolated (54.5%) from downwind at 10, 50, 100 or even 200 m had 100% similarity with those isolated from indoor air or feces too. But those isolated from upwind air had a lower similarity (73%―92%) with corresponding strains isolated from indoor air or feces. Our results suggested that some strains isolated from downwind air and indoor air originated in the chicken feces, but most of isolates obtained from upwind air samples did not come from the chicken feces or indoor air. Effective hygienic measures should be taken in animal farms to prevent or minimize downwind spreading of microorganism aerosol.

关键词： chicken house spread of E.coli aerosol ERIC-PCR similarity identification epidemiological significance

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Recrystallization of High Carbon Steel during High Strain Rate

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Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing 2001年第1期8卷 55-58页

作者： Di Tang, Qingwu cai, Yueqin Li, yumei Pu, Yuzhou Zhu National Engineering Rolling Center of University of Science & Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China Iron & Steel Research Inst. Maan Shan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd., Maan Shan 243000, China National Engineering Rolling Center Univ. of Sci. and Technology Beijing Beijing 100083 China

The recrystallization of high carbon steel during high temperature and high speed rolling has been studied by analyzing the stress-strain curves and the austenite grain size. Isothermal multi-pass hot compression at high strain rate was carried out by Gleeble-200D. The austenite grain size was measured by IBAS image analysis system. The results show that static recrystallization occurred at interpass time under pre-finish rolling, and at the finish rolling stage, due to the brief interpass time, static recrystallization can not be found.

关键词： high strain rate stress-strain curve recrystallization austenite grain

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The expression of immune-related gene of ducks infected with Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli(APEC)

The expression of immune-related gene of ducks infected with...

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中国畜牧兽医学会动物微生态学分会第五届第十二次全国学术研讨会

作者： Rong Li Ning Li Jinzhou Zhang Yao Wang Jiyuan Liu yumei cai Tongjie Chai Liangmeng Wei College of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine Shandong Agricultural University Sino-German Cooperative Research Centre for Zoonosis of Animal Origin Shandong Province Collaborative Innovation Centre for the Origin and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases of Taishan Medical College

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli(APEC) can cause a serious disease in ducks,characterized by perihepatitis,pericarditis and *** the studies of bacteria isolation and methods of detection have been already reported,the host immune responses to APEC infection were still *** this research,we examined the expression of immune-related genes and bacteria distribution in APEC-infected ducks *** results demonstrated that APEC could quickly replicate in multiple tissues with the highest bacteria content in the spleen at 2 day post infection at early *** expressions of Toll-like receptors(TLRs),avian P-defensins(AvBDs) and Major histocompatibility complex(MHC) were tested in the liver,spleen and brain of the infected ***2,TLR4,TLRS and TLR15 showed different expression pattern,which indicated they were all response to APEC *** expression of AvBD2 was up-regulated in all the tested tissues,whereas the expression of AvBD4,AvBD5,AvBD7 and AvBD9 were down-regulated during three tested ***,MHC-Ⅰ was up-regulated at all tested days,but MHC-Ⅱ was dramatically *** study suggested that APEC could replicate in various tissues in a short time,and the activation of host immune responses begins at the initial time of *** results were useful to understand the immune responses of ducks infection with APEC and put insight into pathogenesis of APEC due to host facts.

关键词： Cherry Valley ducks APEC Host immune responses TLRs AvBDs MHCs

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基于GIS的村级土地生态评价研究——以重庆市江津区燕坝村为例

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北京大学学报（自然科学版） 2012年第6期48卷 982-988页

作者：程伟吴秀芹蔡玉梅北京林业大学水土保持学院北京100083 中国土地勘测规划院北京100035

在梳理土地生态评价的内涵和国内外研究现状的基础上,以重庆市江津区龙华镇燕坝村为案例,基于GIS技术,对燕坝村土地进行了生态评价。根据当地的实际情况和资料的可得性,构建了由4个目标层、10个指标层和18个因子组成的指标体系。然后,... 详细信息

在梳理土地生态评价的内涵和国内外研究现状的基础上,以重庆市江津区龙华镇燕坝村为案例,基于GIS技术,对燕坝村土地进行了生态评价。根据当地的实际情况和资料的可得性,构建了由4个目标层、10个指标层和18个因子组成的指标体系。然后,利用专家打分法确定权重,并应用GIS的栅格分析功能,逐一对各个指标层和目标层因子得分进行了计算。最终得到各个栅格单元的生态综合评价得分。结果显示:燕坝村一等地和二等地生态质量较好,占总面积32%左右,主要分布在中部及东南部较平坦的区域;三等地生态质量适中,所占比例最大,为42.87%,主要分布在嘉陵江河漫滩等地;其余为四等地和五等地,生态质量较差,主要分布在海拔相对较高的丘陵集中区和地质灾害易发点的影响范围内。该生态评价结果可为进一步实施村域参与式土地利用规划提供科学支持。

关键词：土地生态空间分析评价 ArcGIS 燕坝村

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基于CLUE-S模型县域土地利用情景模拟与碳排放效应分析

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农业工程学报 2022年第9期38卷 288-296页

作者：顾汉龙马天骏钱凤魁蔡玉梅沈阳农业大学土地与环境学院沈阳110161 耕地立体保护与监测重点实验室沈阳110161 土肥高效利用国家工程研究中心沈阳110161 中国土地勘测规划院北京100035

土地利用与变化产生的碳排放是国家温室气体排放清单核算中的重要组成部分。该研究以辽宁省沈阳市法库县为研究区域,基于2013年土地利用现状数据,运用CLUE-S模型对法库县2019年土地利用变化格局进行模拟与验证。在此基础上,通过设置基... 详细信息

土地利用与变化产生的碳排放是国家温室气体排放清单核算中的重要组成部分。该研究以辽宁省沈阳市法库县为研究区域,基于2013年土地利用现状数据,运用CLUE-S模型对法库县2019年土地利用变化格局进行模拟与验证。在此基础上,通过设置基线情景、农业发展、建设发展、生态保护、土地利用结构优化5种模拟情景预测2030年法库县土地利用分布空间格局及各情景下土地利用碳收支状况。结果表明:1)CLUE-S模型对法库县土地利用格局变化具有良好的模拟能力,Kappa系数为0.989 6,模拟总体精度达到99.14%;2)在5种模拟情景中,土地利用结构优化情景下2030年法库县土地资源利用效果最优,是法库县中长期发展阶段较为适宜的土地利用模式;3)法库县2013—2019年碳排放量增长5.53%。5种模拟情景同2019年相比,除生态保护和农业发展情景外,其余模拟情景下法库县碳排放量均呈现增长趋势,其中土地利用结构优化情景增幅最小,为2.29%。研究结果可为法库县土地利用优化布局、国土空间规划编制及碳减排相关政策制订提供参考依据和决策支持,研究方法也可为其他区域土地利用格局预测及碳收支变化提供借鉴。

关键词：模型土地利用规划情景碳排放法库县

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德国空间规划理论与实践的特点和启示

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城市发展研究 2020年第7期27卷 49-54页

作者：强海洋周璞蔡玉梅中国自然资源经济研究院国土资源规划所中国国土勘测规划院土地利用重点实验室

德国是世界上最早开展空间规划的国家。以德国2006年和2016年空间规划为基础,就规划理念、规划目标和主要内容演变进行比较,剖析规划面临空间开发与竞争力营造、空间规划与可持续发展、政策引导与乡村地区发展、土地利用与自然生态基础... 详细信息

德国是世界上最早开展空间规划的国家。以德国2006年和2016年空间规划为基础,就规划理念、规划目标和主要内容演变进行比较,剖析规划面临空间开发与竞争力营造、空间规划与可持续发展、政策引导与乡村地区发展、土地利用与自然生态基础等四项问题及采取的对应措施。结合我国国土空间规划现状,提出应重视影响空间变化的元素、重视平衡的城乡、区域国土空间发展格局、重视区域政策的衔接、重视过程与实施机制的创新等四点建议。

关键词：德国空间规划发展理念和行动战略空间发展政策特点和启示

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Results of flexible 3D-conformal radiotherapy for patients with diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma and comparative study of this technique with conventional radiotherapy

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The Chinese-German Journal of Clinical Oncology 2008年第5期7卷 292-295页

作者： Fengwei Wang Siwei Zhu Xinzhuo Wang yumei cai Chao Zhang Qiang Yao Yukun Qing Peijie Jia Weilian Li Department of Radiation Oncology Tianjin People＇s Hospital Tianjin 300130 China

Objective： To observe the effects of the new technique of flexible 3D-conformal radiotherapy with combination of photon and electron （3DCRT） in the treatment of the patients with diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma （MPM）, and carry out the comparative study between flexible 3DCRT and hemithoracic conventional radiotherapy （CRT）. Methods： From January 2004 to October 2007, 8 patients with MPM were treated with flexible 3DCRT. 5 patients had received cycles of chemotherapy before radiation. New technique of flexible 3DCRT with combination of photon and electron was used in our study, and DT 32.2-64 Gy with conventional split were delivered. CRT technique was mimicked to compare with 3DCRT technique to predict the possibility of lung damage in two methods. Results： One patient reached CR and other 7 patients got PR after radiation. Two patients died during the follow-up. The median survival time （MST） was 15.4 months and it was 18.8 months for sequential chemotherapy and radiotherapy group and 9.7 months for radiotherapy alone group. The V20, V30, and ipsilateral and contralateral median lung dosage （MLD） were 20.5%, 15.6%, 18.8 Gy and 2.2 Gy respectively when the flexible 3DCRT technique was used, whereas they were 36.8%, 27.9%, 31.1 Gy and 1.2 Gy respectively when the CRT technique was used. They were statistically different for the lung V20, V30 and ipsilateral MLD between the two techniques （P 〈 0.01）, whereas there was no different for the contralateral MLD （P = 0.08）. All patients received radiation were found to have lung fibrosis and classified as grades 1-2 radiation pneumonitis. The quality of life was increased from score 2.83 to 3.76 and it was significantly different （P 〈 0.01）. Conclusion： MPM is moderately sensitive to radiation. The flexible 3DCRT technique is feasible in the treatment of MPM and lung damage is reduced apparently comparing with the CRT technique. The quality of life of patients with MPM is improved after irradiation.

关键词： diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) radiation damage radiation pneumonitis

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体悟式教学在初中道德与法治课中的实践研究

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当代教研论丛 2020年第7期7卷 86-86,99页

作者：蔡育妹福建省莆田市城厢区文献中学福建莆田351100

随着教学改革的不断深入,体悟式教学对学科教学有着极大的帮助,它越来越受到学校的重视。因此本篇文章对体悟式教学在初中道德与法治课中的实践进行研究,并且提出一定的意见,为体悟式教学在初中道德与法治课中的发展提供一定参考。

关键词：体悟式教学初中道德与法治课实践研究

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通胀预期是否对意外盈余做出反应?

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经济研究 2018年第5期53卷 161-174页

作者：孙坚强吴灏蔡玉梅华南理工大学经济与贸易学院邮政编码510006

本文探讨加总的意外盈余是否传递出未来通货膨胀的信号,以及经济主体的通胀预期是否对该信息做出反应。论文根据公司管理层的盈余预测计算加总意外盈余的五种测度,实证发现加总的意外盈余显著传递出未来CPI通货膨胀的信号,有助于增益经... 详细信息

本文探讨加总的意外盈余是否传递出未来通货膨胀的信号,以及经济主体的通胀预期是否对该信息做出反应。论文根据公司管理层的盈余预测计算加总意外盈余的五种测度,实证发现加总的意外盈余显著传递出未来CPI通货膨胀的信号,有助于增益经济主体对通货膨胀的预测,公司盈余信息在加总层面具有预测宏观经济变量的价值。论文进而根据人民银行储户问卷调查计算居民公众的通胀预期和通胀预测误差,实证发现居民公众的通胀预测误差与历史的加总意外盈余显著相关,加总意外盈余对通胀预测误差具有显著解释力。可见,居民公众预测通胀、形成通胀预期的过程中并没有充分使用加总的公司盈余信息,并未对加总意外盈余传递出的通胀信号做出反应。实证结果对加总意外盈余、通胀预期的不同测度,以及工业子样本均稳健。

关键词：通胀预期意外盈余盈余预测业绩预告

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