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Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 233-246页

作者： Qin SU buwen dong Fangxing TIAN Nicholas P.KLINGAMAN Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters and Climate Resources in the Great Mekong Subregion Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingRG66BBUK Geofysisk Institut University of BergenBergen 5007Norway Citadel Investment Group Moor House120 London WallLondonRG66BBUK

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

关键词： concurrent hot and dry events decadal variation greenhouse gases aerosol emissions

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Drivers of the Severity of the Extreme Hot Summer of 2015 in Western China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 1002-1010页

作者： Wei CHEN buwen dong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading

Western China experienced an extreme hot summer in 2015,breaking a number of temperature records.The summer mean surface air temperature(SAT)anomaly was twice the interannual variability.The hottest daytime temperature(TXx)and warmest night-time temperature(TNx)were the highest in China since 1964.This extreme hot summer occurred in the context of steadily increasing temperatures in recent decades.We carried out a set of experiments to evaluate the extent to which the changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/sea ice extent(SIE)and anthropogenic forcing drove the severity of the extreme summer of 2015 in western China.Our results indicate that about 65%–72% of the observed changes in the seasonal mean SAT and the daily maximumand daily minimum(Tmin)temperatures over western China resulted from changes in boundary forcings,including the SST/SIE and anthropogenic forcing.For the relative role of individual forcing,the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic forcing explain about 42% of the SAT warming and 60%(40%)of the increase in TNxand Tmin(TXxand Tmax)in the model response.The changes in SST/SIE contributed to the remaining surface warming and the increase in hot extremes,which are mainly the result of changes in the SST over the Pacific Ocean,where a super El Ni?o event occurred.Our study indicates a prominent role for the direct impact of anthropogenic forcing in the severity of the extreme hot summer in western China in 2015,although the changes in SST/SIE,as well as the internal variability of the atmosphere,also made a contribution.

关键词： severity of temperature extremes summer 2015 western China anthropogenic forcing

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Forced Decadal Changes in Summer Precipitation Characteristics over China:The Roles of Greenhouse Gases and Anthropogenic Aerosols

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第6期34卷 1226-1241页

作者： Bo ZHANG buwen dong Ronghua JIN National Meteorological Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG66URUK

We investigated the decadal changes in the different types of summer mean precipitation over China across the mid-1990 s based on observational datasets.The spatial variations in the observed decadal changes were estimated by comparing the present day(PD)time period of 1994–2011 with an earlier period of 1964–1981.The summer total precipitation increased in southern China and decreased in northern China from the early period to the PD.The increases of precipitation in southern China were due to increases in the frequency of heavy and moderate rainfall,whereas the decreases over northern China were mainly due to decreases in the frequency of moderate and light rainfall.Based on a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a multilevel mixed-layer ocean model,we found that the increase of precipitation frequency forced by greenhouse gases is the main reason of increasing precipitation over southern and northeastern China,while the decrease of frequency caused by anthropogenic aerosol(AA)induces the decreasing precipitation over northern China.The water vapor flux convergence and water vapor flux strengthen in southern China and northeastern China by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.This distribution is also conducive to precipitation in most of southern China and northeastern China.Under the control of weakened southwesterly winds and 850-h Pa divergence,precipitation decreases over northern and southwestern China by AA.

关键词： decadal changes in precipitation frequency and intensity numerical experiments China

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Interdecadal Enhancement of the Walker Circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the Late 1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第2期30卷 247-262页

作者： buwen dong 陆日宇 National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

关键词： Walker circulation interdecadal change Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation late 1990s

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Response of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第5期25卷 723-736页

作者：陆日宇 buwen dong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading Reading UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Reading UK

Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon Atlantic thermohaline circulation dynamical process

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Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2007年第1期24卷 152-162页

作者：陆日宇李颖 buwen dong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG） and Center for Monsoon System Research （ CMSR） Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate （ NCAS） Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading United Kingdom

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

关键词： internal atmospheric variability North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation extratropical climate anomalies East Asian winter monsoon

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Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第4期7卷 275-278页

作者： CHEN Wei LU Ri-Yu buwen dong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Department of Meteorology University of Reading

This study investigated the relationship between the asymmetry in the duration of El Ni?o and La Ni?a and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Ni?o and La Ni?a are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Ni?a in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.

关键词：拉尼娜现象不对称性厄尔尼诺衰减海气相互作用持续时间纬向风异常热带太平洋

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Where were the monsoon regions and arid zones in Asia prior to the Tibetan Plateau uplift?

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National Science Review 2015年第4期2卷 403-416页

作者： Xiaodong Liu Qingchun Guo Zhengtang Guo Zhi-Yong Yin buwen dong Robin Smith State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of Environmental & Ocean Sciences University of San Diego National Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading

The impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplit on the Asian monsoons and inland arid climates is an important but also controversial question in studies of paleoenvironmental change during the Cenozoic. In order to achieve a good understanding of the background for the formation of the Asian monsoons and arid environments, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the distribution of monsoon regions and arid zones in Asia before the plateau uplit. In this study, we discuss in detail the paterns of distribution of the Asian monsoon and arid regions before the plateau uplit on the basis of modeling results without topography from a global coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, compare our results with previous simulation studies and available biogeological data, and review the uncertainties in the current knowledge. Based on what we know at the moment, tropical monsoon climates existed south of 20?N in South and Southeast Asia before the plateau uplit, while the East Asian monsoon was entirely absent in the extratropics. hese tropical monsoons mainly resulted from the seasonal shits of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. here may have been a quasi-monsoon region in central-southern Siberia. Most of the arid regions in the Asian continent were limited to the latitudes of 20–40?N, corresponding to the range of the subtropical high pressure year-around. In the meantime, the present-day arid regions located in the relatively high latitudes in Central Asia were most likely absent before the plateau uplit. he main results from the above modeling analyses are qualitatively consistent with the available biogeological data. hese results highlight the importance of the uplit of the Tibetan Plateau in the Cenozoic evolution of the Asian climate patern of dry–wet conditions. Future studies should be focused on efects of the changes in land–sea distribution and atmospheric CO2 concentrations before and ater the plateau uplit, and also on cross-comparisons between numerical simulations and geological evidence, so tha

关键词： the Tibetan Plateau uplit the Asian monsoons

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The dynamic and thermodynamic processes dominating the reduction of global land monsoon precipitation driven by anthropogenic aerosols emission

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第7期63卷 919-933页

作者： Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Lixia ZHANG Xuebin ZHANG Yun QIAN dongdong PENG Shuangmei MA buwen dong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Environment and Climate Change Canada 4905 Dufferin StreetTorontoONCanada Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichlandWashington 99352USA Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationGuangzhou 510640China National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading RG66BBUK

Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions.Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon precipitation during the second half of the 20 th century.Understanding the cause of this change,especially possible anthropogenic origins,is important.Here,we compare observed changes in global land monsoon precipitation during 1948–2005 with those simulated by 5 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-phase 5(CMIP5)under different external forcings.We show that the observed drying trend is consistent with the model simulated response to anthropogenic forcing and to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in particular.We apply the optimal fingerprinting method to quantify anthropogenic influences on precipitation and find that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to 102%(62–144%for the 5–95%confidence interval)of the observed decrease in global land monsoon precipitation.A moisture budget analysis indicates that the reduction in precipitation results from reduced vertical moisture advection in response to aerosol forcing.Since much of the monsoon regions,such as India and China,have been experiencing rapid developments with increasing aerosol emissions in the past decedes,our results imply a further reduction in monsoon precipitation in these regions in the future if effective mitigations to reduce aerosol emissions are not deployed.The observed decline of aerosol emission in China since 2006 helps to alleviate the reducing trend of monsoon precipiptaion.

关键词： Global monsoon Detection Attribution Aerosol forcing Dynamic and thermodynamic processes

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Continental drift, plateau uplift, and the evolutions of monsoon and arid regions in Asia, Africa, and Australia during the Cenozoic

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第7期62卷 1053-1075页

作者： Xiaodong LIU buwen dong Zhi-Yong YIN Robin S.SMITH Qingchun GUO State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of Sciences CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences National Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Department of Environmental & Ocean Sciences University of San Diego School of Environment and Planning Liaocheng University

Monsoon and arid regions in the Asia-Africa-Australia(A-A-A) realm occupy more than 60% of the total area of these continents. Geological evidence showed that significant changes occurred to the A-A-A environments of the monsoon and arid regions, the land-ocean configuration in the Eastern Hemisphere, and the topography of the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in the Cenozoic. Motivated by this background, numerical experiments for 5 typical geological periods during the Cenozoic were conducted using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to systemically explore the formations and evolutionary histories of the Cenozoic A-A-A monsoon and arid regions under the influences of continental drift and plateau uplift. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that the timings and causes of the formations of monsoon and arid regions in the A-A-A realm were very different. The northern and southern African monsoons existed during the mid-Paleocene, while the South Asian monsoon appeared in the Eocene after the Indian Subcontinent moved into the tropical Northern Hemisphere. In contrast, the East Asian monsoon and northern Australian monsoon were established much later in the Miocene. The establishment of the tropical monsoons in northern and southern Africa, South Asia, and Australia were determined by both the continental drift and seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ), while the position and height of the TP were the key factor for the establishment of the East Asian monsoon. The presence of the subtropical arid regions in northern and southern Africa,Asia, and Australia depended on the positions of the continents and the control of the planetary scale subtropical high pressure zones, while the arid regions in the Arabian Peninsula and West Asia were closely related to the retreat of the Paratethys Sea. The formation of the mid-latitude arid region in the Asian interior, on the other hand, was the consequence of the uplift of the TP.These results from this study provide insight to the import

关键词： Cenozoic Monsoon region Arid region Continental drift Tibetan Plateau uplift Climate simulation

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