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Can patients with mild non-neoplastic lesions diagnosed at baseline screening be safely exempt from surveillance: evidence from multicenter community-based cohorts

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Science China Life Sciences 2025年第1期 263-271页

作者： Siyi He Zhiyi Zhang Guohui song Zhenhai Wang Chunyun Dai Shipeng Yan Kun Jiang bingbing song He Li Maomao Cao Dianqin Sun Fan Yang Xinxin Yan Shaoli Zhang Yi Teng Qianru Li Changfa Xia Wanqing Chen Office of Cancer Screening National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Department of Gastroenterology Gansu Wuwei Tumor Hospital Cixian Cancer Institute Linzhou Cancer Hospital Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Sheyang County Department of Cancer Prevention and Control Hunan Cancer Hospital and The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of MedicineCentral South University Luoshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Office for Cancer Control and Research Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Harbin Medical University

Surveillance recommendations for gastric cancer（GC） in current guidelines focused on advanced precancerous lesions and were based on precise diagnosis of severity/extent of baseline lesions. We aimed to develop a less endoscopy-related equipment-dependent risk-stratification tool, and assessed whether mild-precursor-lesion patients can be safely exempt from surveillance. In the multicenter communitybased cohort, 75,051 participants receiving baseline endoscopy were enrolled during 2015–2017 and followed-up until 2021. Cumulative incidence rates（CIRs） of GC for precancerous-conditions were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method and compared by Log-rank tests. Mixedeffects Cox regression models were used to detect potential factors for progression towards GC. A risk score was calculated as counts of selected factors. An independent cohort, including 26,586 participants was used for external validation. During a median follow-up of 6.25 years, CIRs of GC were 0.302%, 0.436%, and 4.756% for normal group, non-neoplastic（atrophic gastritis/intestinal metaplasia） and neoplastic lesions（low-grade/high-grade dysplasia）, respectively(Ptrend<0.001). Four predictors, including male, ≥60 years, smoking, and limited vegetable consumption, were selected for risk-stratification. High-risk patients（≥3 risk factors） with non-neoplastic lesions showed higher GC risks（adjusted HR=7.73, 95%CI: 4.29–13.92）, and their four-year CIR reached the one-year CIR of neoplastic lesions. Further categorizing non-neoplastic lesions by histological grade, both patients with moderate-to-severe lesions（aHR=3.07, 95%CI: 1.67–5.64） and high-risk patients with mild lesions（aHR=7.29, 95%CI: 3.58–14.86） showed higher risks. Consistent trends were observed in validation cohort. High-risk mild-precursor-lesion patients should receive surveillance within 3–5 years after baseline screening. Our study provides evidence on supplementing current guideline recommendations.

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Incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China,2013

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Chinese Journal of Cancer Research 2017年第6期29卷 471-476页

作者： bingbing song Chao Ding Wangyang Chen Huixin Sun Maoxiang Zhang Wanqing Chen Tumor Prevention and Treatment Institute Harbin Medical UniversityHarbin 150086China Heilongjiang Academy of Medical Sciences Harbin 150086China National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100021China

Objective： Estimating the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer became necessary to establish prevention measures and healthy policies. The aim of this study was to estimate the updated incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in 2013 in China. Methods： According to the evaluation criteria developed by the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the data submitted from 255 cancer registries met the required standards in 2013. Cervical cancer cases were retrieved from the national database and combined with the 2013 national population data. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were based on the demographic structure of the national census 2000 and Segi＇s world population. Results： In 2013, the estimated number of new cases and deaths from cervical cancer were 100,700 and 26,400, respectively. The etude incidence of cervical cancer was 15.17/100,000. The age-standardized incidence rates based on the Chinese standard population （ASIRC） and the world standard population （ASIRW） were I 1.30/100,000 and I0.30/100,000, respectively. The incidence of cervical cancer in urban areas was 15.62/100,000 and the ASIRC was 11.12/100,000. The incidence of cervical cancer in rural areas was 14.65/100,000 and the ASIRC was 11.47/100,000. The mortality rate of cervical cancer was 3.98/100,000. The age-standardized mortality rates based on the Chinese （ASMRC） and world standard populations （ASMRW） were 2.76/100,000 and 2.62/100,000, respectively. The mortality rate of cervical cancer in urban areas was 3.85/100,000 and in rural areas was 4.14/100,000. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality increased with age. Urban areas had a higher incidence of cervical cancer and lower mortality rates when compared with rural areas. Conclusions： Dynamic monitoring of cervical cancer incidence and mortality is the fundamental work of cervical cancer prevention and control. Cervical cancer is a serious issue in women＇s health, and prevention strategies need to be en

关键词： Cervical cancer cancer registration epidemiology

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Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality data in Heilongjiang province cancer registries, China, 2015

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Oncology and Translational Medicine 2019年第4期5卷 182-187页

作者： Huixin Sun bingbing song Maoxiang Zhang Institute of Cancer Prevention and Treatment Harbin Medical UniversityHeilongjiang Academy of Medical ScienceHeilongjiang Cancer Center

Objective In recent years, the rising incidence of cancer has increased patients’ living and economic burdens. This study analyzed the incidence and death due to malignant tumors in tumor registries in Heilongjiang province (China) in 2015 to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors in this province. Methods Data on tumor incidence and patient deaths were collected from seven tumor registries in Heilongjiang province (China) in 2015. According to the stratification of urban and rural areas and patient sex, the crude, standard, and accumulative rates (0–74 years of age) were calculated. The 2000 China Population Census data and Segi’s standard population were used to calculate the age-standardized rates. Results In 2015, the incidence rate of malignant tumors in Heilongjiang cancer registries was 259.90/100 000. The age-standardized incidence rates in the Chinese and world standard populations were 158.89/100 000 and 155.06/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative incidence rate (0–74 years) of 17.68%. The incidence of malignant tumors in urban areas was 273.55/100 000, while that in rural areas was 220.32/100 000. The incidence of malignant tumors in men was 270.89/100 000, higher than that in women (249.04/100 000). Lung cancer had the highest incidence, followed by breast cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and thyroid cancer. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in Heilongjiang cancer registries was 164.69/100 000. The age-standardized mortality rates in Chinese and in world standard populations were 95.29/100 000 and 94.35/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate (0–74 years) of 10.44%. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in urban areas was 169.51/100 000, while that in rural areas was 150.72/100 000. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in men was 201.64/100 000, higher than that in women (128.21/100 000). Lung cancer had the highest mortality, followed by liver cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal

关键词： tumor registration incidence mortality Heilongjiang province, China

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计及短路电流限制的输电网双层扩展规划模型

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电工技术学报 2016年第7期31卷 92-101页

作者：宋柄兵顾洁上海交通大学电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室上海200240 上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院上海200240

在传统输电网规划中考虑限流措施的优化配置,建立计及短路电流限制的输电网双层扩展规划模型。上层规划模型以输电线路投资和限流电抗器配置投资总成本最小为目标,下层规划模型在上层规划模型得出的线路方案下以限流电抗器优化配置投资... 详细信息

在传统输电网规划中考虑限流措施的优化配置,建立计及短路电流限制的输电网双层扩展规划模型。上层规划模型以输电线路投资和限流电抗器配置投资总成本最小为目标,下层规划模型在上层规划模型得出的线路方案下以限流电抗器优化配置投资最小为目标,上下层交互影响作用,最终由上层规划模型给出满足短路电流水平要求的总体规划方案,包括输电线路建设方案和限流电抗器配置方案。将遗传算法和粒子群算法相结合求解所建立的输电网双层扩展规划模型,并通过18节点算例及其扩展算例验证了该模型和算法的有效性。

关键词：输电网扩展规划短路电流裕度限流电抗器优化配置双层优化混合优化算法

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Annual cost of illness of stomach and esophageal cancer patientsin urban and rural areas in China： A multi-center study

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Chinese Journal of Cancer Research 2018年第4期30卷 439-448页

作者： Zhixun Yang Hongmei Zeng Ruyi Xia Qian Liu Kexin Sun Rongshou Zheng Siwei Zhang Changfa Xia He Li Shuzheng Liu Zhiyi Zhang Yuqin Liu Guizhou Guo Guohui song Yigong Zhu Xianghong Wu bingbing song Xianzhen Liao Yanfang Chen Wenqiang Wei Guihua Zhuang Wanqing Chen National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing 100021 China School of Public Health Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center Xi'an 710061 China Henan Office for Cancer Control and Research the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University Henan Cancer Hospital Zhengzhou 450008China Gansu Wuwei Tumor Hospital Wuwei 733000 China Cancer Epidemiology Research Center Gansu Provincial Cancer HospitalLanzhou 730050 China Linzhou Cancer Hospital Linzhou 456500 China Cixian Cancer Institute Handan 056500 China Luoshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Xinyang 464299 China Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Sheyang County Sheyang 224300China Heilongjiang Office for Cancer Control and Research Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital Harbin 150081 China Hunan Office for Cancer Control and Research Hunan Cancer Hospital Changsha 410006 China Yueyang Lou District Center for Disease Prevention and Control Yueyang 414021 China

Objective： Stomach and esophageal cancer are imposing huge threats to the health of Chinese people whereasthere were few studies on the financial burden of the two ***： Costs per hospitalization of all patients with stomach or esophageal cancer discharged betweenSeptember 2015 and August 2016 in seven cities/counties in China were collected, together with their demographicinformation and clinical details. Former patients in the same hospitals were sampled to collect information onannual direct non-medical cost, indirect costs and annual number of hospitalization. Annual direct medical cost wasobtained by multiplying cost per hospitalization by annual number of hospitalization. Annual cost of illness （ACI）was obtained by adding the average value of annual direct medical cost, direct non-medical cost and indirect cost,stratified by sex, age, clinical stage, therapy and pathologic type in urban and rural areas. Costs per hospitalizationwere itemized into eight parts to calculate the proportion of each part. All costs were converted to 2016 US dollars（1 USD：6.6423 RMB）.Results： Totally 19,986 cases were included, predominately male. Mean ages of stomach cancer and urbanpatients were lower than that of esophageal cancer and rural patients. ACI of stomach and esophageal cancerpatients were $10,449 and $13,029 in urban areas, and $2,927 and $3,504 in rural areas, respectively. Greater ACIwas associated with male, non-elderly patients as well as those who were in stage I and underwent *** medicine fee took the largest proportion of cost per ***： The ACI of stomach and esophageal cancer was tremendous and varied substantially among thepopulation in China. Preferential policies of medical insurance should be designed to tackle with this burden andfurther reduce the health care inequalities.

关键词： Cost of illness stomach neoplasms esophageal neoplasms China

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考虑电网输电能力改善的超导储能装置优化选址定容

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电力系统及其自动化学报 2017年第11期29卷 92-98页

作者：宋柄兵顾洁上海交通大学电气工程系电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室上海200240

超导储能装置接入电网后,能够改善网络潮流分布、优化系统运行、有效提高电网输电能力。首先分析了超导储能装置功率输出特性,在建立计及超导储能装置接入的电网最大输电能力计算模型基础上,综合考虑超导储能装置的投资费用及其接入电... 详细信息

超导储能装置接入电网后,能够改善网络潮流分布、优化系统运行、有效提高电网输电能力。首先分析了超导储能装置功率输出特性,在建立计及超导储能装置接入的电网最大输电能力计算模型基础上,综合考虑超导储能装置的投资费用及其接入电网所带来的输电能力提高对应的折现收益;然后以接入超导储能装置后系统净收益最大为目标函数,通过遗传算法求解得到超导储能装置的优化安装地点和容量,并进一步提出了基于灵敏度分析的SMES优化配置方法,以压缩搜索空间,提高模型求解效率;最后通过IEEE30节点系统仿真计算,验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词：超导储能最大输电能力选址定容净收益灵敏度分析遗传算法

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基于混沌粒子群-高斯过程回归的饱和负荷概率预测模型

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电力系统自动化 2017年第21期41卷 25-32,155页

作者：彭虹桥顾洁胡玉宋柄兵上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院大数据工程技术研究中心上海市200240 国家电网公司华东分部上海市200120

饱和负荷预测能有效预估区域电网的发展方向和最终规模,为电网规划及电力市场中长期交易提供指导。针对饱和负荷预测不确定性强、时间跨度大的特点,文中采用基于高斯过程回归(GPR)的概率预测模型进行饱和负荷预测,并通过改进混沌粒子群... 详细信息

饱和负荷预测能有效预估区域电网的发展方向和最终规模,为电网规划及电力市场中长期交易提供指导。针对饱和负荷预测不确定性强、时间跨度大的特点,文中采用基于高斯过程回归(GPR)的概率预测模型进行饱和负荷预测,并通过改进混沌粒子群算法(MCPSO)实现以和方差(SSE)最小为目标的模型超参数优化求解;在综合考虑饱和负荷影响因素随机性的基础上,建立了改进混沌粒子群—高斯过程回归(MCPSO-GPR)饱和负荷预测模型,并在多情景下利用上述模型进行饱和负荷预测,同时结合饱和判据得到多情景下饱和负荷的规模和时间。算例分析表明,所述模型不仅具有较高的预测精度,而且可增强预测的弹性。

关键词：饱和负荷负荷预测高斯过程回归混沌粒子群优化概率预测

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生态保护对长江经济带高质量发展影响研究

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人民长江 2024年第8期55卷 1-7页

作者：宋冰冰李友根重庆交通大学经济与管理学院重庆400074

为更好实现长江经济带生态保护和高质量发展的耦合协调,利用熵权法测算长江经济带11个省(市)在2013~2021年间的生态保护和高质量发展水平,采用空间杜宾模型进行空间计量分析,研究生态保护对高质量发展的空间影响效应,最后利用耦合协调... 详细信息

为更好实现长江经济带生态保护和高质量发展的耦合协调,利用熵权法测算长江经济带11个省(市)在2013~2021年间的生态保护和高质量发展水平,采用空间杜宾模型进行空间计量分析,研究生态保护对高质量发展的空间影响效应,最后利用耦合协调模型分析生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调度的时序演化特征与空间演化特征。研究结果表明:长江经济带高质量发展水平呈逐年上升趋势,但存在地区异质,下游地区高质量发展水平相较于中游和上游地区更加突出;生态保护能够促进高质量发展,且对周围地区存在正向空间溢出效应;高质量发展与生态保护的耦合协调度从以中度协调为主转变为高度协调为主。长江经济带各省市在加快高质量发展的过程中,不仅要注重生态保护,还需重视区域发展的均衡性和协调性。

关键词：长江经济带生态保护高质量发展耦合协调度空间杜宾模型空间溢出效应

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基于多维变量筛选-非参数组合回归的长期负荷概率预测模型

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电网技术 2018年第6期42卷 1768-1775页

作者：彭虹桥顾洁宋柄兵马睿时亚军上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院上海市闵行区200240 国家电网公司华东分部上海市浦东区200120

长期负荷预测是电网规划及电力市场中长期交易的基础。针对长期负荷受多维因素驱动、不确定性强的特点,提出了非参数组合回归的长期负荷概率预测模型。通过Granger因果分析对驱动负荷长期发展的多维变量进行初步筛选;为提高预测精度,基... 详细信息

长期负荷预测是电网规划及电力市场中长期交易的基础。针对长期负荷受多维因素驱动、不确定性强的特点,提出了非参数组合回归的长期负荷概率预测模型。通过Granger因果分析对驱动负荷长期发展的多维变量进行初步筛选;为提高预测精度,基于逐步平均组合将筛选后的变量集进行非参数组合回归建模,在实现最优组合模型的同时综合各变量对长期负荷的动态驱动;基于随机变化率对最优组合模型包含的多维变量进行不确定性建模,并应用于长期负荷概率预测,获得长期负荷10%、50%、90%分位点值。算例分析结果表明,非参数组合回归模型不仅精度较高,且结合多维变量不确定性建模能实现长期负荷概率预测。

关键词：长期负荷概率预测非参数组合回归多维变量筛选 Granger因果分析不确定性建模

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Cu/Sn-58Bi-0.5Ce/Cu钎焊接头的热时效行为

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金属热处理 2018年第6期43卷 96-99页

作者：周仕远杨莉朱路宋兵兵常熟理工学院机械工程学院江苏常熟215500 苏州大学机电工程学院江苏苏州215500

对比研究了不同时效温度下Sn-58Bi和Sn-58Bi-0.5Ce钎焊接头的组织、界面IMC形态、厚度及接头拉伸性能和断口形貌。结果表明：Ce颗粒的添加细化了Sn-58Bi钎料的组织,抑制了Sn-58Bi钎料接头时效过程中组织的粗化、IMC形貌变化及厚度的增... 详细信息

对比研究了不同时效温度下Sn-58Bi和Sn-58Bi-0.5Ce钎焊接头的组织、界面IMC形态、厚度及接头拉伸性能和断口形貌。结果表明：Ce颗粒的添加细化了Sn-58Bi钎料的组织,抑制了Sn-58Bi钎料接头时效过程中组织的粗化、IMC形貌变化及厚度的增大。随时效温度的升高,Cu/Sn-58Bi-0.5Ce/Cu钎焊接头IMC形貌从扇贝状逐渐趋于平整,厚度逐渐增大,抗拉强度逐渐降低,拉伸断口由韧性断裂转变为脆性断裂。

关键词： Cu/Sn-58Bi-0.5Ce/Cu接头时效温度界面IMC 力学性能断口

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