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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO baoqiang tian Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

中国夏季月际—季节平均降水动力和统计结合实时预测模型

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大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 359-375页

作者：范可田宝强戴海霞中山大学大气科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 珠海519082 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心北京100029 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 国防科技大学气象海洋学院长沙410073

中国夏季降水大幅度月际尺度变化往往造成极端旱涝事件交替或转折,但其月际异常会被季节平均掩盖,影响季节尺度气候预测准确度,因此亟需考虑月际气候预测,提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度。本文首先采用年际增量和场信息耦合型预测方... 详细信息

中国夏季降水大幅度月际尺度变化往往造成极端旱涝事件交替或转折,但其月际异常会被季节平均掩盖,影响季节尺度气候预测准确度,因此亟需考虑月际气候预测,提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度。本文首先采用年际增量和场信息耦合型预测方法研制中国夏季6~8月月际尺度降水动力和统计结合气候预测模型,之后根据月际尺度降水预测,开展季节平均降水预测。首先,基于前期观测信息和美国第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2)预测结果,选取前期12月观测的南太平洋中高纬关键区海温、1月北极关键区海冰密集度以及CFSv2预测系统2月起报的夏季同期关键区海温作为月际尺度降水预测因子,分别研制以上具有物理意义的单预测因子预测模型,并采用奇异值分解(SVD)误差订正方法对其改进;之后,利用多因子择优集合方案,研制预测效能较高且稳定的中国160站夏季月际尺度降水动力和统计结合预测模型,进而基于月际尺度预测开展夏季季节平均气候预测。1983~2022年夏季(6~8月)中国160站逐月降水预测模型的交叉检验结果表明:逐月回报与观测降水距平百分率的时间相关系数通过90%置信水平的站点占比分别为90%,88%,82%,多年平均的空间相关系数分别为0.39、0.40和0.39,均通过99%置信水平。针对2020~2022年连续三年同样拉尼娜背景下但不同中国夏季降水形势,开展月际—季节独立回报检验,其结果显示,2020~2022年6、7、8月预测降水距平百分率的趋势异常综合检验(PS)平均分分别为75、75和70分;夏季季节平均降水的PS评分分别为72、76和73分,均高于多年业务预测平均分。由此,考虑月际异常开展季节尺度气候预测是提升月际—季节尺度气候预测准确度的一个有效途径。

关键词：中国夏季月际—季节尺度动力和统计结合降水预测 SVD误差订正择优集合方案实时预测

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中国东北极端持续大—暴雪事件的个例成因及可预测性

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大气科学学报 2024年第2期47卷 201-215页

作者：范可杨洪卿田宝强王路杉中山大学大气科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海) 广东珠海519082 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 中国科学院大学北京100049

2013年11月东北大—暴雪持续日数为1982—2020年同期最多的一年。其中,2013年11月17—20日和25日先后发生两次强降雪过程,其中第一次过程降雪持续时间较长,而第二次过程日降雪强度强。基于此,从2013年11月月际异常气候背景和两次强降雪... 详细信息

2013年11月东北大—暴雪持续日数为1982—2020年同期最多的一年。其中,2013年11月17—20日和25日先后发生两次强降雪过程,其中第一次过程降雪持续时间较长,而第二次过程日降雪强度强。基于此,从2013年11月月际异常气候背景和两次强降雪过程的角度,开展其成因和可预测性研究。研究结果表明,2013年11月北极涛动(AO)正位相异常偏强、类北太平洋涛动(NPO)负位相、巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量(11月减9月)异常偏多和热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖的气候背景有利于这次东北持续性大—暴雪事件的发生。其中,2013年11月巴伦支海以北的海冰月增长量偏多,意味着季节性海冰生长量增加使得向大气中释放的潜热通量增加,气温偏高,有利于AO正位相加强并激发罗斯贝(Rossby)波列,使得阿留申低压减弱;同时11月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,热带印度洋对流加强和热带西太平洋对流减弱,有利于西北太平洋-阿留申地区维持“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,呈现类NPO负位相。这样的环流形势有利于从北太平洋向东北地区持续输送水汽。第一次强降雪过程(17—20日)发生前5 d(12—16日)到降雪过程结束(20日),北大西洋涛动(NAO)维持正位相并且强度达到冬半年最强,由此激发持续东传Rossby波,使得西北太平洋-阿留申地区为持续性的南北向“气旋-反气旋”式环流异常,有利于北太平洋水汽持续输送至东北地区。在2013年11月25日第二次强降雪过程中,乌拉尔山阻塞高压显著加强,东北低涡加深,有利于热带西太平洋更为暖湿的水汽输送至东北地区,与北太平洋输送的水汽共同导致第二次强降雪过程的日降雪强度大。最后,利用CFSv2评估2013年11月异常气候背景的可预测性,结果表明CFSv2可提前1个月预测2013年11月热带-南印度洋海温异常偏暖,但对热带印度洋和西太平洋对流异常、NAO以及热带-中高纬大气遥相关预测能力较弱。在次季节尺度上,ECMWF(CMA)能提前29(12)d和13(16)d合理预测出两次过程降雪量的空间分布,这可能是由于模式能合理再现NAO和乌拉尔山阻塞高压等关键环流系统的逐日变化。因此未来还有待提升热带-中高纬大气遥相关、水汽输送以及平流层极涡的次季节-季节预测效能。

关键词：中国东北 11月持续性大—暴雪强降雪过程季节性海冰生长量中高纬环流水汽输送次季节-季节气候可预测性

A hybrid forecasting model for depth-averaged current velocities of underwater gliders

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2022年第9期41卷 182-191页

作者： Yaojian Zhou Yonglai Zhang Wenai Song Shijie Liu baoqiang tian Software School North University of ChinaTaiyuan030051China State Key Laboratory of Robotics Shenyang Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of SciencesShenyang110016China School of Mechanical Engineering North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhou450045China

In this paper,we propose a hybrid forecasting model to improve the forecasting accuracy for depth-averaged current velocities(DACVs) of underwater *** hybrid model is based on a discrete wavelet transform(DWT),a deep belief network(DBN),and a least squares support vector machine(LSSVM).The original DACV series are first decomposed into several high-and one low-frequency subseries by ***,DBN is used for high-frequency component forecasting,and the LSSVM model is adopted for low-frequency *** effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by two groups of DACV data from sea trials in the South China *** on four general error criteria,the forecast performance of the proposed model is *** comparison models include some well-recognized single models and some related hybrid *** performance of the proposed model outperformed those of the other methods indicated above.

关键词： underwater glider hybrid forecasting model depth-averaged current velocities(DACVs)

Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第5期33卷 837-850页

作者： baoqiang tian Ke FAN Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049

Two prediction models are developed to predict the number of landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs) in China during June–August(JJA). One is a statistical model using preceding predictors from the observation, and the other is a hybrid model using both the aforementioned preceding predictors and concurrent summer large-scale environmental conditions from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2).(1) For the statistical model, the year-to-year increment method is adopted to analyze the predictors and their physical processes, and the JJA number of LTCs in China is then predicted by using the previous boreal summer sea surface temperature(SST) in Southwest Indonesia,preceding October South Australia sea level pressure, and winter SST in the Sea of Japan. The temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of LTCs during 1983–2017 is 0.63.(2) For the hybrid prediction model, the prediction skill of CFSv2 initiated each month from February to May in capturing the relationships between summer environmental conditions(denoted by seven potential factors: three steering factors and four genesis factors) and the JJA number of LTCs is firstly evaluated. For the 2-and 1-month leads, CFSv2 has successfully reproduced these relationships. For the 4-, 3-, and 2-month leads, the predictor of geopotential height at 500 h Pa over the western North Pacific(WNP) shows the worst forecasting skill among these factors. In general, the summer relative vorticity at 850 h Pa over the WNP is a modest predictor, with stable and good forecasting skills at all lead times.

关键词： tropical cyclone Climate Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) year-to-year increment prediction

Effects of ZrO_2 on the structure and magnetic properties of CoPt thin films

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Rare Metals 2007年第1期26卷 23-27页

作者： SHEN Xiaohua XU Xiaohong JIANG Fengxian LV Baohua tian baoqiang JIN Tao School of Chemistry and Materials Science Shanxi Normal University Linfen 041004 China

[CoPt 1.5 ml/ZrO2 xnm]10 multilayer films were deposited on glass substrates by magnetron sputtering and then annealed in vacuum at 600℃ for 30 min. Their structures and magnetic properties were investigated as a function of ZrO2 content. The results show that the grain size and coercivity first increase and then decrease with the increase in ZrO2 content. The maximum coercivity and grain size are obtained at 37 vol.% of ZrO2. The content of ZrO2 in the film plays an important role in the separation of CoPt grains and in the reduction of intergrain exchange interaction. On the basis of the studies of angular dependent coercivity, it is found that the magnetization reversal of CoPt films with （111 ） texture is different from either the domain wall motion or the S-W type of rotation mode.

关键词： [CoPt/ZrO2]10 thin fllms grain size magnetron sputtering ZrO2 content

Effects of Ag layers on the SiO2/FePt thin films deposited by magnetron sputtering

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Rare Metals 2008年第1期27卷 13-17页

作者： FAN Jiuping XU Xiaohong WANG Fang JIANG Fengxian tian baoqiang JIN Tao School of Chemistry and Materials Science Shanxi Normal University Linfen 041004 China

The effects of Ag layers with different locations and thicknesses on the structural and magnetic property of SiO2/FePt multilayer films were *** non-magnetic Ag layer plays an important role in inducing（001） orientation and ordering of FePt grains,as well as the SiO2-doping reducing the grain size and the magnetic exchange coupling between *** the 10 nm Ag layer is moved from the bottom to the top of the SiO2/FePt multilayer film,the coercivity gradually decreases;the largest difference between the out-of-plane coercivity and the in-plane one is obtained in the sample of [SiO2（2 nm）/FePt（3 nm）]3/Ag（10 nm）/[SiO2（2 nm）/FePt（3 nm）]***,the location of Ag layers was fixed and the thickness was *** XRD curves suggest that the intensity of the（001） peak becomes the strongest with the addition of 10 nm Ag layers.

关键词： [SiO2/FePt]5 multilayer perpendicular orientation magnetron sputtering coercivity

Prevention of Q235 Steel Corrosion using Waterborne Rust Inhibitor

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Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science) 2023年第1期38卷 206-211页

作者：闫镇威 KANG Mingjie 谭兆钧李全德田宝强李帅 School of Mechanical Engineering North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerZhengzhou 450011China State Key Laboratory of Long-life High Temperature Materials Deyang 618000China Dongfang Turbine Co LTD Deyang 618000China

Sorbitol,triethanolamine,sodium benzoate,boric acid,and sodium carbonate were mixed to prepare a waterborne rust inhibitor.A temperature and humidity accelerated corrosion test was applied to investigate the corrosion behaviour of waterborne rust inhibitor coated Q235 steel and original Q235 steel,which was carried out in a temperature and humidity test chamber(WSHW-1000)at a temperature of 80℃and humidity of 95%.Compared with the original Q235,waterborne rust inhibitor coated Q235 has better resistance to corrosion in hot and humid ambient *** impedance spectroscopy and potentiodynamic polarization were measured with a three-electrode cell in 3.5%NaCl aqueous solution on a CHI760E potentiostat/*** dynamics was simulated to verify the synergistic corrosion inhibitory mechanism of sodium carbonate and *** test shows that the prepared waterborne rust inhibitor can reduce the tendency of Q235 to corrosion and can also effectively reduce the corrosion rate.

关键词： Q235 steel waterborne rust inhibitor temperature and humidity test electrochemical corrosion

Has the Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Improved Since the Late 1970s?

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2016年第6期30卷 833-852页

作者：范怡范可田宝强 Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models （CGCMs） from the ENSEMBLES （Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts） and DEME- TER （Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction） projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979-2005 than that during 1960-1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.

关键词： South China Sea summer monsoon prediction Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Chan-ges and Their Impacts Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonalto Interannual Prediction year-to-year increment prediction approach