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基于海-冰-气系统的东亚冬季风统计预测

应用气象学报 2024年第2期35卷 168-181页

作者：邵祺多涂钢布和朝鲁刘实吉林省气象科学研究所/长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室/中高纬度环流系统与东亚季风研究开放实验室长春130062 中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029 吉林省气象局长春130062

东亚冬季风对东亚冬季的天气气候具有重要影响,对其预测研究是冬季气候预测的关键问题。已有东亚冬季风强度指数(ISA)与东北冬季气温在年际、年代际尺度具有显著且稳定的相关关系,但ISA的前兆信号在20世纪90年代末发生年代际转变,对ISA... 详细信息

东亚冬季风对东亚冬季的天气气候具有重要影响,对其预测研究是冬季气候预测的关键问题。已有东亚冬季风强度指数(ISA)与东北冬季气温在年际、年代际尺度具有显著且稳定的相关关系,但ISA的前兆信号在20世纪90年代末发生年代际转变,对ISA的预测效果转差。在海-冰-气系统重新寻找影响ISA的前兆因子,分析其与东亚冬季风的可能关联,构建统计预测方法并开展交叉检验。结果表明:20世纪80年代后ISA与前期热带太平洋马蹄型结构的海温、墨西哥湾流区海温、平流层欧亚中高纬环流型呈显著正相关,与巴伦支海海冰密集度呈显著负相关。以上前兆信号可通过冬季大气环流、海陆热力差等途径影响ISA,预测模型拟合效果较好,试报期间(2012—2022年)与实况的符号一致率达81.8%(9/11),可用于当前年代际背景下东亚冬季风强度预测。

关键词：东亚冬季风统计预测外强迫因子平流层年代际背景

Blocking Features for Two Types of Cold Events in East Asia

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第2期31卷 309-320页

作者： Zuowei XIE cholaw bueh International Center for Climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China School of Earth and atmospheric sciences Georgia Institute of Technology GA 30332 USA

Cold air outbreaks（CAOs）always hit East Asia during boreal winter and have significant impacts on human health and public *** amplitude and route of CAOs are closely associated with blocking circulations over the Eurasian *** categories of CAOs are recognized,namely,the ordinary cold wave events（CWEs）and the extensive and persistent extreme cold events（EPECEs）,with the latter having even stronger *** blocking features associated with these two types of CAOs and their differences are investigated in this study on the intraseasonal *** these two CAOs do have in common is that they are both preceded by the intensification and recurrence of a blocking high over the midlatitude North *** difference between these events is primarily reflected on the spatial scale and duration of the corresponding blocking *** the CWEs,blocking occurs around the Ural Mountains,and exhibits a regional *** resulting cold air temperature persists for only up to 8 *** contrast,during the EPECEs,the blocking region is quite extensive and is not only confined around the Ural Mountains but also extends eastward into Northeast Asia in a southwest–northeast *** a result,the cold air tends to accumulate over a large area and persists for a much longer *** blocking activity is primarily induced by an increased frequency and eastward extension of the synoptic anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking（AWB）.Compared with the CWEs,characterized by a regional and short-lived synoptic AWB frequency,the EPE-CEs tend to be accompanied by more recurrent and eastward extensions of the synoptic AWB.

关键词： cold air outbreak blocking synoptic wave breaking extreme temperature

On the Two Successive Supercold Waves Straddling the End of 2020 and the Beginning of 2021

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第4期39卷 591-608页

作者： cholaw bueh Jingbei PENG Dawei LIN Bomin CHEN International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW)&Key Laboratory for Cloud physics of china Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Shanghai Climate Center Shanghai 200030China

Two supercold waves straddling 2020 and 2021 successively hit china and caused record-breaking extremely low *** this study,the distinct features of these two supercold waves are analyzed on the medium-range time *** blocking pattern from the Kara Sea to Lake Baikal characterized the first cold wave,while the large-scale tilted ridge and trough over the Asian continent featured the second cold *** to the cold waves,both the northwest and hyperpolar paths of cold air contributed to a zonally extensive cold air accumulation in the key region of *** might be the primary reason why strong and extensive supercold waves occur even under the Arctic amplification *** two cold waves straddling 2020 and 2021 exhibited distinct features:(1)the blocking circulation occurred to the north or the east of the Ural Mountains and was not confined only to the Ural Mountains as it was for the earlier cold waves;(2)the collocation of the Asian blocking pattern and the polar vortex deflection towards East Asia preferred the hyperpolar path of cold air accumulation and the subsequent southward outburst;and(3)both high-and low-frequency processes worked in concert,leading to the very intense cold *** cold air advance along the northwest path,which coincides with the southeastward intrusion of the Siberian High(SH)front edge,is associated with the high-frequency process,while the cold air movement along the hyperpolar path,which is close to the eastern edge of the SH,is controlled by the low-frequency process.

关键词： cold wave Siberian high hyperpolar path blocking large-scale tilted ridge and trough

Extensive Cold-Precipitation-Freezing Events in Southern china and Their Circulation Characteristics

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2021年第1期38卷 81-97页

作者： Jing-Bei PENG cholaw bueh Zuo-Wei XIE institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Concurrence of low temperature,precipitation and freezing weather in an extensive area would cause devastating impacts on local economy and *** call such a combination of concurrent disastrous weather“extensive coldprecipitation-freezing”events(ECPFEs).In this study,the ECPFEs in southern china(15°−35°N,102°−123°E)are objectively defined by using daily surface observational data for the period 1951−*** ECPFE in southern china is defined if the low temperature area,precipitation area and freezing area concurrently exceed their respective thresholds for at least three consecutive *** identified ECPFEs are shown to be reasonable and reliable,compared with those in previous *** circulation anomalies in ECPFEs are characterized by a large-scale tilted ridge and trough pairing over mid-and high-latitude Eurasia,and the intensified subtropical westerlies along the southern foot of the Tibetan Plateau and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical western *** analysis reveals that the stable cold air from the north and the warm and moist air from the south converge,facilitating a favorable environment for the concurrence of extensive low-temperature,precipitation and freezing weather.

关键词： extensive cold-precipitation-freezing event southern china large-scale tilted ridge and trough trough over the Bay of Bengal western Pacific subtropical high

A Novel Identification of the Polar/Eurasia Pattern and Its Weather Impact in May

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第5期33卷 810-825页

作者： Ni GAO cholaw bueh Zuowei XIE Yuanfa GONG College of Atmosphere Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225 International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

The Polar/Eurasia(POL) pattern was previously identified based on the empirical orthogonal function method and monthly mean data, in which the positive and negative phases are anti-symmetric in spatial distribution. This paper identifies the positive(POL+) and negative(POL-) phases of the POL pattern through applying a novel approach, i.e.,self-organizing maps, to daily 500-h Pa geopotential height fields in May over 1948–2017. The POL+, POL1-, and POL2-patterns defined by this method represent actual physical modes. The POL+ pattern features a wave train from the northeastern Atlantic/northern Europe via the subarctic regions of Eurasia to Lake Baikal. The POL1-pattern is characterized by a planetary-scale dipole pattern with a positive anomaly band over subarctic Eurasia and a negative anomaly band from central Asia to the Sea of Okhotsk. The anomaly centers of the POL2-pattern are basically antisymmetrical to those of the POL+ pattern. The POL+ pattern increases the blocking frequency over the northeastern Atlantic/northern Europe and northeastern Asia, where high-frequency transient eddies are highly recurrent in the north. Accordingly, precipitation increases apparently in the subarctic Asian continent and western Siberia, and decreases around Europe and Lake Baikal. A mimic wave train is also observed in the surface air temperature anomaly field. During the POL1-period, the blocking frequency is abnormally high over Eurasia, whereas high-frequency transient eddies are apparently suppressed over northern Eurasia. Correspondingly, significant precipitation deficits are observed in northern Eurasia. The POL1-pattern also causes a remarkable temperature increase in the subarctic seas of Eurasia and a considerable temperature drop in the midlatitude Asian continent. As the POL2-pattern prevails, the blocking frequency decreases over the North Atlantic/Europe but strengthens over the Asian continent. The POL2-pattern also causes wavelike anomalies of precipitation a

关键词： Polar/Eurasia(POL) pattern self-organizing maps blocking transient eddy

Fidelity of the APHRODITE Dataset in Representing Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020年第12期37卷 1405-1416页

作者： Sheng LAI Zuowei XIE cholaw bueh Yuanfa GONG College of atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Using rain-gauge-observation daily precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network(V3.25)and the chinese Surface Daily Climate Dataset(V3.0),this study investigates the fidelity of the AHPRODITE dataset in representing extreme precipitation,in terms of the extreme precipitation threshold value,occurrence number,probability of detection,and extremal dependence index during the cool(October to April)and warm(May to September)seasons in Central Asia during 1961–*** distribution of extreme precipitation is characterized by large extreme precipitation threshold values and high occurrence numbers over the mountainous *** APHRODITE dataset is highly correlated with the gauge-observation precipitation data and can reproduce the spatial distributions of the extreme precipitation threshold value and total occurrence ***,APHRODITE generally underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold values,while it overestimates the total numbers of extreme precipitation events,particularly over the mountainous *** biases can be attributed to the overestimation of light rainfall and the underestimation of heavy rainfall induced by the rainfall distribution–based *** deficits are more evident for the warm season than the cool season,and thus the biases are more pronounced in the warm season than in the cool *** probability of detection and extremal dependence index reveal that APHRODITE has a good capability of detecting extreme precipitation,particularly in the cool season.

关键词： APHRODITE extreme precipitation Central Asia Xinjiang fidelity

Wintertime extreme precipitation event over southern china and its typical circulation features

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chinese Science Bulletin 2014年第10期59卷 1036-1044页

作者： Haifeng Zong cholaw bueh Liren Ji The International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

This study objectively defined an extreme precipitation event(EPE)over southern china and investigated the associated typical circulation pattern on the intraseasonal time *** occurrence of the EPE resulted from the joint operations of anomalous circulations over the subtropics and mid-high *** the EPE,simultaneous enhancements of the trough over the Bay of Bengal(BBT)and the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)facilitated the abundant water vapor conditions over southern china,whereas the weakened East Asian major trough(EAT)led to a moderate cold air invasion to that region,producing a persistent convergence zone over southern *** train pattern in North Atlantic and Europe may be viewed as precursory signals for the EPE over southern china,and it contributed to the Rossby wave propagation in association with the *** wave packets propagated toward East Asia mainly along the North African-Asian subtropical westerly jet ***-frequency disturbances along this waveguide contributed to the enhancement of the BBT and WPSH and the weakening of the EAT,constituting favorable circulation conditions for the EPE.

关键词： Extreme precipitation event Troughover the Bay of Bengal - Western Pacific subtropicalhigh Precursory signal

Two Types of Arctic Oscillation and Their Associated Dynamic Features

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2011年第5期4卷 287-292页

作者： SHI Ning bueh cholaw Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In this paper,the dynamical evolutions of two types of Arctic Oscillation (AO),the stratospheric (S) and tropospheric (T) types,have been investigated on an intermediate time scale in terms of transient eddy feedback forcing and three-dimensional Rossby wave propagation.S-Type (T-type) events are characterized by an anomalous stratospheric polar vortex that is in phase (out of phase) with its tropospheric *** onethird of AO events,both positive and negative,are T-type *** the positive phase of a T-type event,the formation and maintenance of stratospheric positive anomalies over the polar cap are associated with an upward propagation of Rossby wave packets originating from the near-tropopause altitude over northeastern ***,such upward propagating features are not found for S-type *** the troposphere,transient eddy feedback forcing is primarily responsible for the meridional seesaw structure of both the S-and T-type events,with an additional contribution from Rossby wave propagation.

关键词： Arctic Oscillation stratospheric polar vortex,Rossby wave transient eddy feedback forcing

Precursory Signals of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in china

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2012年第3期5卷 252-257页

作者： PENG Jing-Bei bueh cholaw The International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences The International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmos-pheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were accompanied by a CCW in the initial stages. From the comparison between the CECs and the CCWs that were independent of any CEC, it is found that a south- west-northeast-oriented tilted ridge at 500 hPa was present around the Europe-Barents Sea regions approximately 10 days prior to the start of the CEC. Consistent with this feature, a high sea level pressure and strong cold air accumulation occurred over a broad extent of northern Eurasia one week prior to the start of the CEC. The tilted ridge and the strong cold air accumulation were the precursory signals that were absent for the CCW, and they provide important clues for the early prediction of whether a CCW event might evolve into a CEC.

关键词： precursory signal extensive and persistent extreme cold event cold wave the tilted ridge