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Observed and Future Spatiotemporal Changes of Rainfall Extreme Characteristics and Their Dynamic Driver in June-August Season over Africa

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第2期12卷 358-382页

作者： asaminew teshome Jie Zhang Teferi Demissie Qianrong Ma Ethiopian Meteorological Institute Addis Ababa Ethiopia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME) Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST) Nanjing China International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Addis Ababa Ethiopia NORCE Norwegian Research Center Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway

Climate change has increased extreme events over globe and the most robust occurrences of concurrent drought and floods have become more common in Africa. This study focuses on the observed and projected analysis of rainfall extremes of consecutive dry day (CDD) and maximum monthly five day precipitation (RX5day) from Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in June-August season over Africa. The daily CORDEX Africa, reanalysis and CRU datasets were analyzed for extreme trends under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the periods of 1980 to 2100. The spatiotemporal variability, trend, and magnitude of JJA seasonal rainfall performance exhibits a significant decreasing tendency over Eastern Africa compared to West Africa. The observed results of consecutive dry day (CDD) reveal that increasing trend and moreover RX5day shows that promising positive trend. Both rainfall extremes are influenced by the combined effect of large scale indexes and appear to be correlated negatively and positively with ENSO, NAO and AO. The CORDEX ensemble mean projections of JJA seasonal rainfall performance show a widespread significant change and the first mode of EOF depicts that 13.8% and 24.9% under the RCP4.5 and the highest variability is under RCP8.5 scenario. The projected CDD extreme exhibit an increasing trend in the coming periods and the percentage change revealed that increasing from 25.11%, 28.02% over West and 26.49%, 31.66% East Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. This situation will exacerbate increasing of frequent and intensified drought extremes over Africa. Additionally, the future RX5day indicated that mixed trend and revealed that increasing 3.72%, 2.54% over West and decreases -16.12%, -22.47% over East Africa under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Generally, rainfall extremes of CDD are projected to increase and RX5day shows a mixed trend in the coming periods over Africa and calls for further verification by using high resolution

关键词： Africa Extremes JJA Observed Projected

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Skill Assessment of North American Multi-Models Ensemble (NMME) for June-September (JJAS) Seasonal Rainfall over Ethiopia

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2022年第1期12卷 54-73页

作者： asaminew teshome Jie Zhang Qianrong Ma Stephen E. Zebiak Teferi Demissie Tufa Dinku Asher Siebert Jemal Seid Nachiketa Acharya National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia Addis Ababa Ethiopia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/International Joint Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST) Nanjing China International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) The Earth Institute Columbia University New York USA NORCE Norwegian Research Center Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) East Africa Addis Ababa Ethiopia Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research Addis Ababa Ethiopia Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna Pisa Italy Center for Earth System Modeling Analysis and Data Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for high-resolution seasonal climate forecasts at sufficient lead times to allow response planning from users in agriculture, hydrology, disaster risk management, and health, among others. This paper examines the forecasting skill of the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) over Ethiopia during the June to September (JJAS) season. The NMME, one of the multi-model seasonal forecasting systems, regularly generates monthly seasonal rainfall forecasts over the globe with 0.5 - 11.5 months lead time. The skill and predictability of seasonal rainfall are assessed using 28 years of hindcast data from the NMME models. The forecast skill is quantified using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and root mean square error. The results show that the NMME models capture the JJAS seasonal rainfall over central, northern, and northeastern parts of Ethiopia while exhibiting weak or limited skill across western and southwestern Ethiopia. The performance of each model in predicting the JJAS seasonal rainfall is variable, showing greater skill in predicting dry conditions. Overall, the performance of the multi-model ensemble was not consistently better than any single ensemble member. The correlation of observed and predicted seasonal rainfall for the better performing models—GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-A06, CMC2-CanCM4, GFDL-CM2p5-FLOR-B01 and NASA-GMAO-062012—is 0.68, 0.58, 0.52, and 0.5, respectively. The COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, CMC1- CanCM3 and NCEP-CFSv2 models exhibit less skill, with correlations less than 0.4. In general, the NMME offers

关键词： Ethiopia Ensemble June-September Correlation Coefficient Skill

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