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Modeling the Hydrological Dynamic of the Breeding Water Bodies in Barkedji’s Zone

Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2014年第8期6卷 741-755页

作者： Mamadou Bop angelina amadou Ousmane Seidou Cheikh Mouhamed Fadel Kébé Jacques André Ndione Soussou Sambou Ibrah Seidou Sanda Agrhymet Regional Center Niamey Niger Centre de Suivi écologique (CSE) Dakar Sénégal Centre International de Formation et de Recherche en Energie Solaire (CIFRES) Département de Génie Civil Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique Université Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar Sénégal Department of Civil Engineering University of Ottawa Ottawa Canada Laboratoire d’Hydraulique et de Mécanique des Fluides Département de Physique Faculté des Sciences et Techniques Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar Dakar Sénégal

Temporary water bodies’ dynamics play an important role in the epidemiological chain-borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever as they are the main breeding habitats for mosquitoes. During the rainy season, hundreds of these temporary water bodies appear and grow in the Ferlo region (Senegal). The purpose of this research is to generate historical and future time series water levels and areas at three temporary ponds located in the environment and health observatory of Barkedji. A simple lumped hydrological model was developed for that purpose. It describes each pond watershed as three interconnected reservoirs: canopy, surface storage and soil storage and uses a linear relation to describe infiltration, percolation and baseflow (out of the soil reservoir). Given the depth of the water table in the region, percolation out of the soil surface is considered lost. Evapotraspiration was calculated using the Penman equation and withdraws water from the canopy and surface water reservoirs. Excess runoff from the soil storage is turned into runoff using a triangular unit hydrograph. The calibration was done using two years of hydrological and climatic data collected during the 2011 and 2012 rainy seasons. The calibration was successful and water level in the two ponds was simulated with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 11.2 to 15 cm. Because of the short duration of the observation, no validation could be done. Given the excellent agreement of the simulated and observed water levels during the calibration phase, the modeling exercise was considered to be successful. The developed models were used to generate historical time series of pond areas and correlate these to mosquitoes’ infestation in the region. Future time series of pond areas were also generated using downscaled outputs of three regional climate models from the AMMA ENSEMBLES experiment. The generated pond levels and areas are being used to assess the evolution of the disease in the next 40 years.

关键词： Breeding Areas Hydrology Pond Dynamics Climate Change

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