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Assessing Factors for Occurrence of Road Accidents in Tanzania Using Panel Data Analysis: Road Safety Perspective

Journal of Transportation Technologies 2022年第1期12卷 123-136页

作者： Ndume Vitalis angela-aida karugila runyoro Majige Selemani Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology Dar es Salaam Tanzania National Institute of Transport Dar es Salaam Tanzania Bank of Tanzania Dar es Salaam Tanzania

This study assessed critical factors for road traffic accidents and associated mitigation to reduce the accidents by the year 2030. The study was guided by research questions, what are the major causatives of road accidents and how to mitigate the problem. The study used secondary data collected from the repository database of traffic police at the division of Tanzania Road Safety Squad. Data were collected at the events of accident occurrences and reported annually by regions. Panel data analysis was used to allow for controlling variables which cannot be observed over time and across areas such as regions. Pooled Poisson model, fixed effect and random effect Poisson model was applied to assess factors for road traffic accidents. Fixed effect model was the best model with a reasonably good fit. Results indicated that all predictors are significant under fixed effect Poisson model with a p-value less than 0.05 but Passengers and Railway crossing road was found insignificant and dropped in the final model. Laws and regulatory frameworks should be formulated and enforced promptly for Tanzania may reach the target of 2nd decade of action for roads safety 2021-2030.

关键词： Road Accidents Panel Data Analysis Fatal Accidents Pedestrian Crossing Dangerous Driving Reckless Driving

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