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Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic

Engineering 2021年第7期7卷 914-923页

作者： Shengjie Lai Nick W.Ruktanonchai Alessandra Carioli Corrine W.Ruktanonchai jessica R.Floyd Olivia Prosper Chi Zhang Xiangjun Du Weizhong Yang Andrew J.Tatem WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthampton SO171BJUK Population Health Sciences Virginia TechBlacksburgVA 24061USA Department of Mathematics University of TennesseeKnoxvilleTN 37996USA School of Public Health(Shenzhen) Sun Yat-sen UniversityShenzhen 510275China School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China

Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time.Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020,we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions.We found that if these interventions had not been deployed,the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold(interquartile range 79–116)increase,as of May 31,2020.However,their effectiveness depended upon the timing,duration,and intensity of the interventions,with variations in case severity seen across populations,regions,and seasons.Additionally,before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved,our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.

关键词： COVID-19 Pandemic Population mobility Travel restriction Physical distancing

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Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases

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National Science Review 2021年第11期8卷 110-120页

作者： Suoyi Tan Shengjie Lai Fan Fang Ziqiang Cao Bin Sai Bing Song Bitao Dai Shuhui Guo Chuchu Liu Mengsi Cai Tong Wang Mengning Wang jiaxu Li Saran Chen Shuo Qin jessica R.Floyd Zhidong Cao jing Tan Xin Sun Tao Zhou Wei Zhang Andrew J.Tatem Petter Holme Xiaohong Chen Xin Lu School of Business Central South University Institute of Big Data and Internet Innovations Hunan University of Technology and Business College of Systems Engineering National University of Defense Technology WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of Southampton School of Mathematics and Big Data Foshan University State Key Laboratory on Blind Signal Processing State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems Institute of AutomationChinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics West China Hospital Sichuan University Big Data Research Center University of Electronic Science and Technology of China West China Biomedical Big Data Center West China Hospital Sichuan University Tokyo Tech World Hub Research Initiative Institute of Innovative Research Tokyo Institute of Technology

2020 was an unprecedented year,with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic.To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods,we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020,ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season(chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown,and then to the recovery period.We observed that cross-city movements,which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown,are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities.Following the Lunar New Year holiday,national mobility remained low until mid-February,and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities.Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities,conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China.While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed,smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters.During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted,the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown.These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response,transportation planning and regional economic development,among others.

关键词： human mobility travel restrictions COVID-19 mobile phone data behavioral response

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Modelling changing population distributions:an example of the Kenyan Coast,1979–2009

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International journal of Digital Earth 2017年第10期10卷 1017-1029页

作者： Catherine Linard Caroline W.Kabaria Marius Gilbert Andrew J.Tatem Andrea E.Gaughan Forrest R.Stevens Alessandro Sorichetta Abdisalan M.Noor Robert W.Snow Spatial Epidemiology Lab(SpELL) UniversitéLibre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium Department of Geography Universitéde NamurNamurBelgium Spatial Health Metrics Group KEMRI Wellcome Trust Research ProgrammeNairobiKenya Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique(F.R.S.-FNRS) BrusselsBelgium WorldPop Department of Geography and EnvironmentUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK Fogarty International Center National Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA Flowminder Foundation StockholmSweden Department of Geography and Geosciences University of LouisvilleLouisvilleKYUSA Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global HealthUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK

Large-scale gridded population datasets are usually produced for the year of input census data using a top-down approach and projected backward and forward in time using national growth rates.Such temporal projections do not include any subnational variation in population distribution trends and ignore changes in geographical covariates such as urban land cover changes.Improved predictions of population distribution changes over time require the use of a limited number of covariates that are time-invariant or temporally explicit.Here we make use of recently released multi-temporal high-resolution global settlement layers,historical census data and latest developments in population distribution modelling methods to reconstruct population distribution changes over 30 years across the Kenyan Coast.We explore the methodological challenges associated with the production of gridded population distribution time-series in data-scarce countries and show that trade-offs have to be found between spatial and temporal resolutions when selecting the best modelling approach.Strategies used to fill data gaps may vary according to the local context and the objective of the study.This work will hopefully serve as a benchmark for future developments of population distribution time-series that are increasingly required for population-at-risk estimations and spatial modelling in various fields.

关键词： Human population distribution modelling gridded population datasets temporal change Kenya

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全球旅行和接触限制对减缓COVID-19疫情大流行作用的评估

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Engineering 2021年第7期7卷 57-78页

作者：赖圣杰 Nick W.Ruktanonchai Alessandra Carioli Corrine W.Ruktanonchai jessica R.Floyd Olivia Prosper 张弛杜向军杨维中 Andrew J.Tatem World Pop School of Geography and Environmental Science University of Southampton Population Health Sciences Department of Mathematics University of Tennessee School of Public Health (Shenzhen) Sun Yat-sen University School of Population Medicine and Public Health Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College

为了减缓新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的大流行,全球已广泛实施了旅行限制和保持社交距离的措施,但这些干预措施在不同地区和时间方面的有效性尚待深入研究。基于2020年第一波疫情期间135个国家或地区手机定位数据获得的人口流动指标,我... 详细信息

为了减缓新冠病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的大流行,全球已广泛实施了旅行限制和保持社交距离的措施,但这些干预措施在不同地区和时间方面的有效性尚待深入研究。基于2020年第一波疫情期间135个国家或地区手机定位数据获得的人口流动指标,我们构建了一个元人口流行病学模型(metapopulation epidemiological model),用于评估全球旅行和接触限制对遏制不同地区COVID-19传播的影响。研究发现,如果未采取这些干预措施,截至2020年5月31日,研究地区(135个国家或地区)的累计COVID-19病例数可能已增加97倍(四分位距为79～116)。然而,这些措施的有效性取决于干预的及时性、强度和持续时长,并且不同人群、地区和季节的发病严重程度有所差异。此外,本研究结果强调,在放松干预措施期间,并且在有效的疫苗普及和实现群体免疫之前,在一定程度上,仍需采取减少人员接触的措施,以避免下一波疫情的快速出现和再次采取全面封锁措施。

关键词： COVID-19 大流行人口流动旅行限制保持社交距离

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Global spatio-temporally harmonised datasets for producing high-resolution gridded population distribution datasets

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Big Earth Data 2019年第2期3卷 108-139页

作者： Christopher T.Lloyd Heather Chamberlain David Kerr Greg Yetman Linda Pistolesi Forrest R.Stevens Andrea E.Gaughan jeremiah j.Nieves Graeme Hornby Kytt MacManus Parmanand Sinha Maksym Bondarenko Alessandro Sorichetta Andrew J.Tatem WorldPop School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK Flowminder Foundation StockholmSweden Center for International Earth Science Information Network(CIESIN) Columbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA Department of Geography and Geosciences University of LouisvilleLouisvilleKYUSA GeoData University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK

Multi-temporal,globally consistent,high-resolution human population datasets provide consistent and comparable population distributions in support of mapping sub-national heterogeneities in health,wealth,and resource access,and monitoring change in these over time.The production of more reliable and spatially detailed population datasets is increasingly necessary due to the importance of improving metrics at sub-national and multitemporal scales.This is in support of measurement and monitoring of UN Sustainable Development Goals and related agendas.In response to these agendas,a method has been developed to assemble and harmonise a unique,open access,archive of geospatial datasets.Datasets are provided as global,annual time series,where pertinent at the timescale of population analyses and where data is available,for use in the construction of population distribution layers.The archive includes sub-national census-based population estimates,matched to a geospatial layer denoting administrative unit boundaries,and a number of co-registered gridded geospatial factors that correlate strongly with population presence and density.Here,we describe these harmonised datasets and their limitations,along with the production workflow.Further,we demonstrate applications of the archive by producing multi-temporal gridded population outputs for Africa and using these to derive health and development metrics.The geospatial archive is available at https://***/10.5258/SOTON/WP00650.

关键词： Human population subnational global spatial dataset multi-temporal

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