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Uncertainty Reduction Through Data Management in the Development, Validation, Calibration, and Operation of a Hurricane Vulnerability Model

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第6期11卷 790-806页

作者： Jean-Paul Pinelli Josemar Da Cruz Kurtis Gurley andres santiago paleo-torres Mohammad Baradaranshoraka Steven Cocke Dongwook Shin College of Engineering and Science Florida Institute of TechnologyMelbourneFL 32901USA Civil and Coastal Engineering University of FloridaGainesvilleFL 32611USA Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies(COAPS) Florida State UniversityTallahasseeFL 32306USA

Catastrophe models estimate risk at the intersection of hazard,exposure,and *** of these areas requires diverse sources of data,which are very often incomplete,inconsistent,or missing *** poor quality of the data is a source of epistemic uncertainty,which affects the vulnerability models as well as the output of the catastrophe *** article identifies the different sources of epistemic uncertainty in the data,and elaborates on strategies to reduce this uncertainty,in particular through identification,augmentation,and integration of the different types of *** challenges are illustrated through the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model(FPHLM),which estimates insured losses on residential buildings caused by hurricane events in *** define the input exposure,and for model development,calibration,and validation purposes,the FPHLM teams accessed three main sources of data:county tax appraiser databases,National Flood Insurance Protection(NFIP)portfolios,and wind insurance *** data from these different sources were reformatted and processed,and the insurance databases were separately cross-referenced at the county level with tax appraiser *** FPHLM hazard teams assigned estimates of natural hazard intensity measure to each insurance *** efforts produced an integrated and more complete set of building descriptors for each policy in the NFIP and wind *** article describes the impact of these uncertainty reductions on the development and validation of the vulnerability models,and suggests avenues for data *** learned should be of interest to professionals involved in disaster risk assessment and management.

关键词： Catastrophe modeling Data augmentation and integration Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model(FPHLM) Uncertainty reduction Vulnerability model

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Fast preparation route to high-performances textured Sr-doped Ca_3Co_4O_9 thermoelectric materials through precursor powder modification

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Science China Materials 2019年第3期62卷 399-406页

作者： Miguel Angel torres Gustavo Garcia Idoia Urrutibeascoa Maria Antonieta Madre Juan Carlos Diez andres Sotelo ICMA (CSIC-Universidad de Zaragoza) Centro Stirling S. Coop. Mondragon Unibertsitatea

This work presents a short and very efficient method to produce high performance textured Ca_3Co_4O_9 thermoelectric materials through initial powders modification. Microstructure has shown good grain orientation, and low porosity while slightly lower grain sizes were obtained in samples prepared from attrition milled powders. All samples show the high density of around 96% of the theoretical *** similar characteristics are reflected in, approximately,the same electrical resistivity and Seebeck coefficient values for both types of samples. However, in spite of similar power factor(PF) at low temperatures, it is slightly higher at high temperature for the attrition milled samples. On the other hand, the processing time reduction(from 38 to 2 h) when using attrition milled precursors, leads to lower mechanical properties in these samples. All these data clearly point out to the similar characteristics of both kinds of samples, with a drastic processing time decrease when using attrition milled precursors, which is of the main economic importance when considering their industrial production.

关键词： ceramics oxides hot-pressing electrical properties power factor

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A lattice Boltzmann exploration of two-phase displacement in 2D porous media under various pressure boundary conditions

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2022年第6期14卷 1782-1798页

作者： Guanxi Yan Zi Li Thierry Bore Sergio andres Galindo torres Alexander Scheuermann Ling Li School of Civil Engineering University of QueenslandSt LuciaBrisbaneQLD4072Australia School of Engineering Westlake UniversityHangzhou310024China Institute of Advanced Technology Westlake Institute for Advanced StudyHangzhou310024China

While experimental designs developed in recent decades have contributed to research on dynamic nonequilibrium effects in transient two-phase flow in porous media,this problem has been seldom investigated using direct numerical simulation(DNS).Only a few studies have sought to numerically solve Navier—Stokes equations with level-set(LS)or volume-of-fluid(VoF)methods,each of which has constraints in terms of meniscus dynamics for various flow velocities in the control volume(CV)*** Shan—Chen multiphase multicomponent lattice Boltzmann method(SC-LBM)has a fundamental mechanism to separate immiscible fluid phases in the density domain without these ***,this study applied it to explore two-phase displacement in a single representative elementary volume(REV)of two-dimensional(2D)porous *** a continuation of a previous investigation into one-step inflow/outflow in 2D porous media,this work seeks to identify dynamic nonequilibrium effects on capillary pressure—saturation relationship(P_(c)—S)for quasi-steady-state flow and multistep inflow/outflow under various pressure boundary *** simulation outcomes show that P_(c),S and specific interfacial area(a_(nw))had multistep-wise dynamic effects corresponding to the multistep-wise pressure boundary *** finer adjustments to the increase in pressure over more steps,dynamic nonequilibrium effects were significantly alleviated and even finally disappeared to achieve quasisteady-state inflow/outflow ***,triangular wave-formed pressure boundary conditions were applied in different periods to investigate dynamic nonequilibrium effects for hysteretical Pc—*** results showed overshoot and undershoot of P_(c)to S in loops of the nonequilibrium *** addition,the flow regimes of multistep-wise dynamic effects were analyzed in terms of Reynolds and capillary numbers(Re and Ca).The analysis of REV-scale flow regimes showed higher Re(1

关键词： Two-phase flow Porous media Dynamic effects Multistep in/outflow Capillary pressure Interfacial area Flow regimes

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Simulation of a Walking Robot-E xoskeleton Movement on a Movable Base

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Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Technology 2021年第4期1卷 207-213页

作者： Sergey Jatsun Andrei Malchikov Andrey Yatsun AI Manji Khalil andres santiago Martinez Leon Department of Mechanics Mechatronics and RoboticsSouthwest State UniversityKursk 305040Russian Federation

The paper studies the problem of movement of a two-legged walking machine on a movable *** task is relevant for design rehabilitation and mechanotherapy complexes for people with impaired functions of the musculoskeletal system and presents a mathematical model that allows obtaining the kinematic and dynamic parameters of the movement of the executive units of the device under *** paper presents a method for planning the trajectory of exoskeleton links,its algorithmic and software *** paper proposes the structure of the automatic link position control system,which ensures the movement of the executive links along a given trajectory.A mathematical apparatus is proposed for studying the dynamics of the controlled movement of the links of the human-machine system of the *** article presents the results of *** on the movement of the low-limb exoskeleton leg in the one step mode and analyzes them.

关键词： walking robot mathematical simulation kinematic analysis trajectory planning

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Challenges and improvement strategies in the hospitalization of chronic multimorbid patients

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World Journal of Clinical Cases 2025年第3期13卷 35-41页

作者： andres Fontalba-Navas Francisco Pozo Muñoz Rogelio Garcia Cisneros Maria Jose Garcia Larrosa Maria del Mar Callejon Gil Ignacio Garcia Delgado Maria Belen Jimenez Martinez Antequera Hospital Northern Málaga Integrated Healthcare AreaAntequera 29200AndalusiaSpain Department of Public Health and Psychiatry University of MálagaMálaga 29010Spain Antequera Hospital Northern Málaga Antequera Integrated Healthcare AreaAntequera 29200MálagaSpain

BACKGROUND Addressing the growing challenge of hospitalizing chronic multimorbid patients,this study examines the strain these conditions impose on healthcare systems at a local level,focusing on a pilot *** diseases and complex patients require comprehensive management strategies to reduce healthcare burdens and improve patient *** proven effective,this pilot model has the potential to be replicated in other healthcare settings to enhance the management of chronic multimorbid *** To evaluate the effectiveness of the high complexity unit(HCU)in managing chronic multimorbid patients through a multidisciplinary care model and to compare it with standard hospital *** The study employed a descriptive longitudinal approach,analyzing data from the Basic Minimum Data Set(BMDS)to compare hospitalization variables among the HCU,the Internal Medicine Service,and other services at Antequera Hospital throughout *** HCU,designed for patients with complex chronic conditions,integrates a patient-centered model emphasizing multidisciplinary care and continuity *** The study employed a descriptive longitudinal approach,analyzing data from the BMDS to compare hospitalization variables among the HCU,the Internal Medicine Service,and other services at Antequera Hospital throughout *** HCU,designed for patients with complex chronic conditions,integrates a patient-centered model emphasizing multidisciplinary care and continuity *** This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HCU in managing patients with complex chronic diseases through a multidisciplinary *** coordinated care provided by the HCU results in improved patient outcomes,reduced unnecessary hospitalizations,and better management of patient *** superiority of the HCU compared to standard care is evident in key outcomes such as fewer readmissions and higher patient satisfaction,reinforcing its value as a model of ca

关键词： High complexity unit Chronic multimorbidity Patient-centered care Integrated care Healthcare management

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The Early Evolutionary History and Adaptive Radiation of the Pterosauria

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2012年第6期86卷 1356-1365页

作者： Brian andres Department of Geology University of South Florida

Phylogenetic analyses of early pterosaur species are relatively new and contradictory. However, they imply a similar evolutionary history for early pterosaurs： a large divergence of all major early groups of pterosaurs before the first named pterosaur species appeared in the fossil record. This large, unsampled divergence may be a record of the initial adaptive radiation of the pterosaurs, but a recent comprehensive phylogenetic analysis reconstructs named Triassic pterosaur species grouped together in a monophyletic clade with all other major groups diverging later. Ten patterns that characterize adaptive radiations put forward by Gavrilets and Losos （2009） are assessed for congruence with the comprehensive phylogeny and two previous phylogenies to determine which are consistent with our notions of an adaptive radiation. Of the eight patterns that can be applied to pterosaurs, only six vary between pterosaur phylogenies. Of these six patterns, all apply to the three phylogenies with varying amounts of support. For many patterns, however, the comprehensive phylogeny has a greater magnitude, shorter time span, or is the only topology within which they can be assessed. Pterosaurs are characterized by an adaptive radiation no matter which phylogeny is considered, but congruence with the fossil record increases the support and information content of a phylogeny by reducing the time and area within which to reconstruct evolutionary history.

关键词： Pterosauria adaptive radiation phylogeny Triassic

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Stochastic modeling,analysis,and simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic with explicit behavioral changes in Bogota:Acase study

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第1期7卷 199-211页

作者： David Nino-torres andres Ríos-Gutierrez Viswanathan Arunachalam Comfort Ohajunwa Padmanabhan Seshaiyer Department of Statistics Universidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotaColombia George Mason University FairfaxVAUSA

In this paper,a stochastic epidemiological model is presented as an extension of a compartmental SEIR model with random perturbations to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Bogota D.C.,*** model incorporates thespread of COVID-19 impacted by social behaviors in the population and allows for projecting the number of infected,recovered,and deceased individuals considering the mitigation measures,namely confinement and partial relaxed ***,the role of randomness using the concept of Brownian motion is emphasized to explain the behavior of the *** experiments for the stochastic model with random perturbations were performed,and the model is validated through numerical simulations for actual data from Bogota D.C.

关键词： Epidemic spread SARS-CoV-2 Compartmental modeling Stochastic perturbations Parameter estimation

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Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies： a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees

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Current Zoology 2016年第4期62卷 393-403页

作者： andres MARTiNEZ-AQUINO Division Zoologfa Invertebrados Museo de La Plata FCNyM UNLP Paseo del Bosque s/n 1900 La Plata Argentina

Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host-parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for ex ample, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as es- timates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a ＂compass＂ when ＂walking＂ through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees.

关键词： coevolution cophylogenetic analyses host-parasite molecular systematics parametric biogeography symbiosis.

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Fetkin-hydro,a new thermo-hydrological algorithm for low-temperature thermochronological modeling

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Geoscience Frontiers 2021年第3期12卷 186-200页

作者： Francisco Sánchez andres Barrea Federico M.Dávila andres Mora Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra(CICTERRA) CONICET-UNCFCEFyNCiudad UniversitariaAv.Vélez Sarsfield 16115000 CórdobaArgentina Facultad de Matemática AstronomíaFísica y Computación(FAMAF)Ciudad UniversitariaAv.Medida Allende 21445000 CórdobaArgentina Ecopetrol BotafogoRio de JaneiroBrazil

Despite two decades of major advances in the field of thermochronological modeling,state-of-the-art numerical implementations still rely mostly on burial and exhumation processes to explain radiometric *** though such an approach has proved valuable,failing to account for other first-order geological variables has led to misinterpretations and therefore,calls for a *** this study a new version of the Fetkin(finite element temperature kinematics,Ecopetrol)program is *** new algorithm couples time-dependent hydrological and thermal calculations,thus rendering thermochronological ages that,instead of being solely dependent on the kinematical evolution of a system,conditioning by the fluid flow is also *** contrast with previous thermochronological models,this work considers the influence of effective stress on rock properties(porosity and permeability)and therefore,in thermal *** analyses addressing relevant geological questions show not only the versatility of the code but also,new perspectives on forward low-temperature thermochronological *** circulation through pure-sandstone settings produce colder thermal architectures than those obtained in impermeable *** in cooling ages from models with and without fluid circulation are up to 5 Myr.A 4-fold variation in thrusting rates(0.5 km/Myr to 2 km/Myr)produces a 15-Myr difference in cooling ages in models with fluid flow,which contrasts to much lower differences,only 2 Myr,in domains without(or minimal)fluid circulation.2D thermal solutions in fold-bend-fold thrust belts composed of sandstones remain static despite substantial relief development by kinematic folding.A case-study from Western Argentina,in the Andean Precordillera,confirms the plausibility of the numerical algorithm here posed and raises new questions on the first-order thermal controls in settings under deformation.

关键词： Thermochronology Hydrogeology Fluid flow Numerical modeling

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基于新型复合材料的除湿换热器夏季及冬季工况实验研究

基于新型复合材料的除湿换热器夏季及冬季工况实验研究

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作者： andres santiago Valarezo Rivera 上海交通大学

学位级别：硕士

干燥剂涂层换热器(DCHE)被认为是一种新颖且有前景的技术,用于在提供舒适环境和通过除湿改善建筑物内部空气质量的过程中减少HVAC(加热,通风和空调)系统的能量消耗。并加湿气流。它通过将干燥剂材料涂覆到显热交换器的外表面来制造。干... 详细信息

干燥剂涂层换热器(DCHE)被认为是一种新颖且有前景的技术,用于在提供舒适环境和通过除湿改善建筑物内部空气质量的过程中减少HVAC(加热,通风和空调)系统的能量消耗。并加湿气流。它通过将干燥剂材料涂覆到显热交换器的外表面来制造。干燥剂材料硅胶在DCHE技术中被广泛采用。但是,它的吸附能力有限。在相同条件下,一些材料如吸湿盐与硅胶相比具有更高的吸附质量,但具有更高的再生温度和腐蚀的缺点。然后在本论文中,为了获得可在DCHE中采用的最佳干燥剂,提出了一种新型复合干燥剂材料硅胶和醋酸钠。为了验证新型复合干燥剂的实际性能,建立了一个实验装置,以测试其在温度,入口空气速度,再生水温和水冷温度的实验条件下的性能。新型复合干燥剂硅胶和醋酸钠涂层换热器(SASCHE)的性能实验研究是在中国上海市典型的夏季和冬季进行的。首先,分别对夏季和冬季的除湿-冷却和加湿-加热应用,再生温度,冷热水温度,进气风速,热性能系数(COPh)和能效等主要参数的影响进行了实验研究。。然后,将其性能与单一硅胶涂覆热交换器(SCHE),甲酸钾和硅胶涂覆热交换器(PSCHE)进行比较。在夏季,实验结果表明,新型复合干燥剂材料可以处理除湿-冷却过程,在冷却能力和效率方面具有优异的性能。与PSCHE和SCHE相比,SASCHE的除湿能力分别提高了10%和30%。在冬季加湿加热过程中,SASCHE的平均加湿能力是PSCHE和SCHE的两倍。此外,夏季的室内舒适条件满足高热水温度和低入口空气流速,冬季推荐低热水温度和高入口空气流速。最后,提出了出口空气温湿度比的数学模型。比较了实验结果和模拟数据,夏季和冬季的典型周期时间为720秒。在夏季,出口空气温度和湿度比的不确定性分别为15%和12%。在冬季,与理论结果相比,出口空气温度的不确定性为14%,出口空气湿度比为17%。数学模拟表明,DCHE在温度和湿度比方面的性能是时间的指数函数,并且取决于各种参数,例如再生水温度,循环时间和主要的干燥剂性质。

关键词：醋酸钠硅胶干燥剂涂层换热器加湿除湿

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