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Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1184-1200,I0022-I0034页

作者： Bin TANG Wenting HU anmin duan Yimin LIU Wen BAO Yue XIN Xianyi YANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China Chinese Academy of Sciences the CAS Institutes of Science and DevelopmentBeijing 101408China School of Public Policy and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent *** the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this *** on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are *** indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global *** changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of *** only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in ***,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these ***,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

关键词： CMIP6 heavy precipitation extreme drought South China Indochina economic impact

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春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型对东亚夏季风影响的研究进展

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大气科学 2024年第1期48卷 321-332页

作者：张超段安民厦门大学海洋与地球学院近海海洋环境科学国家重点实验室厦门361102

冬春青藏高原积雪异常是东亚夏季风的重要预测因子之一。本文系统回顾了近20年关于青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型影响东亚夏季风的相关研究,主要结论如下:(1)20世纪90年代初春季青藏高原积雪的年际变率从东西偶极型转变为全区一致型... 详细信息

冬春青藏高原积雪异常是东亚夏季风的重要预测因子之一。本文系统回顾了近20年关于青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型影响东亚夏季风的相关研究,主要结论如下:(1)20世纪90年代初春季青藏高原积雪的年际变率从东西偶极型转变为全区一致型,这主要受北太平洋、热带大西洋海温异常变化的影响,也与南极涛动、北极涛动的变化密切相关;(2)春季青藏高原积雪年际变率的年代际转型可通过影响东亚高层的副热带西风急流和低层的水汽输送,进而影响东亚夏季风降水格局变化;(3)青藏高原积雪异常可通过“高原大气河”的机制影响梅雨雨带;(4)大西洋年代际振荡可调节春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨降水关系的年代际变化,当大西洋年代际振荡为正(负)位相时,春季青藏高原积雪与梅雨的关系加强(减弱)。最后,本文对青藏高原积雪异常影响东亚季风变化的关键科学问题进行了讨论与展望。

关键词：青藏高原积雪东亚夏季风降水

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Drivers of East Asian summer monsoon variability:Global oceans and the Tibetan Plateau

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Science Bulletin 2024年第16期69卷 2487-2490页

作者： anmin duan Guoxiong Wu Bin Wang Andrew G.Turner Jun Hu Wenting Hu Ping Zhang Die Hu Yuheng Tang Center for Marine Meteorology and Climate Change State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental ScienceCollege of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of HawaiiHonolulu 96822USA Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReading RG67BEUK

The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)profoundly influences the hydroclimate,ecosystems,and water resources of a densely populated region in *** EASM can lead to floods,droughts,significant economic losses,and social disruption in East Asia and Southeast *** the Indian and African monsoons,the EASM is shaped by both tropical and extratropical climate systems,including tropical oceanic modes,cross-equatorial airflows,the Madden-Julian Oscillation,the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau,the South Asia High,and the mid-latitude westerly jet.

关键词： Tibetan monsoon East

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Precipitation anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau affected by tropical sea-surface temperatures and mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in September

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Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第3期66卷 619-632页

作者： Ping ZHANG anmin duan State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Science University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361102China

Tibetan Plateau(TP)precipitation is affected by anomalous circulation systems in both the tropics and mid-latitudes,due to the TP’s unique geographical *** using observational,reanalysis,and CMIP6 model datasets,this study reveals the individual and joint effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)and Silk Road pattern(SRP)on the interannual variability of TP precipitation in *** the positive IOD phase,the zonal gradient of the sea-surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)drives a Gill-type response with an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian subcontinent and Bay of *** the north,anomalous westerlies induce a shallow trough,and the associated anomalous southwesterlies transport moisture to the southeastern TP,resulting in surplus precipitation ***,the westerly jet disturbances over the North Atlantic excite an SRP-like pattern,resulting in a baroclinic structure in northern India with the upper(lower)tropospheric anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)over west-central Asia(northern India).The anomalous southwesterlies to the east of the low-level cyclone transport abundant moisture to the southeastern TP,which results in increased precipitation *** joint effects of IOD and SRP can explain nearly 52%of the TP precipitation anomaly,exceeding the contribution of IOD(19%)and SRP(27%)*** results highlight the necessity of considering the joint effects of drivers in the tropics and mid-latitudes,providing a basis for more accurate simulations and predictions of TP precipitation.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau precipitation Interannual variability Indian Ocean Dipole Silk Road pattern

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The energy and water cycles under climate change

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National Science Review 2020年第3期7卷 553-557页

作者： Qingyun duan anmin duan Hohai University the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Energy and water cycles have been a hot research topic in the global scientific community. The global climate change observed over the last century is having a profound impact on global and regional energy and water cycles, leading to more frequent extreme climatic events and affecting water security, ecosystem and socioeconomic development around the world. The impact is especially obvious over the highland regions such as the Tibetan Plateau. Here we have an interview with one of world’s most renowned experts in hydroclimatology,Professor Soroosh Sorooshian from the University of California at Irvine, to share his insights on the subject of energy and water cycles.

关键词： cycle GEWEX The energy and water cycles under climate change

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Wave-mean flow interaction and its relationship with the atmospheric energy cycle with diabatic heating

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第8期48卷 1293-1302页

作者： duan anmin WU Guoxiong State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on the traditional theory of wave mean flow interaction, an improved quasi-geostrophic Eliassen-Palm flux with diabatic heating included is deduced. It is shown that there exists an intrinsic relation between the atmospheric energy cycle derived by Lorenz and the wave energy transfer derived by Eliassen and Palm. From this relation it becomes clear that the energy propagation process of large-scale stationary wave is indeed a part of Lorenz energy cycle, and the energy transform from mean flow to wave equals the global mass integral of the divergence of local wave energy flux or the global integral of local wave energy. The diagnostic results by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data suggest that the classical adiabatic Eliassen-Palm flux relation can present only the wintertime wave energy transformation. For other seasons, however, the diabatic effect must be taken into account.

关键词： wave-mean flow interaction, Eliassen-Palm flux, diabatic heating, Lorenz energy cycle, wave energy.

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Interannual Variability of Late-spring Circulation and Diabatic Heating over the Tibetan Plateau Associated with Indian Ocean Forcing

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 31-45页

作者： Yu ZHAO anmin duan Guoxiong WU State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

The thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） during boreal spring, which involves surface sensible heating, latent heating released by convection and radiation flux heat, is critical for the seasonal and subseasonal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon. Distinct from the situation in March and April when the TP thermal forcing is modulated by the sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） in the North Atlantic, the present study shows that it is altered mainly by the SSTA in the Indian Ocean Basin Mode （IOBM） in May, according to in-situ observations over the TP and MERRA reanalysis data. In the positive phase of the IOBM, a local Hadley circulation is enhanced, with its ascending branch over the southwestern Indian Ocean and a descending one over the southeastern TP, leading to suppressed precipitation and weaker latent heat over the eastern TP. Meanwhile, stronger westerly flow and surface sensible heating emerges over much of the TP, along with slight variations in local net radiation flux due to cancellation between its components. The opposite trends occur in the negative phase of the IOBM. Moreover, the main associated physical processes can be validated by a series of sensitivity experiments based on an atmospheric general circulation model, FAMIL. Therefore, rather than influenced by the remote SSTAs of the northern Atlantic in the early spring, the thermal forcing of the TP is altered by the Indian Ocean SSTA in the late spring on an interannual timescale.

关键词： Indian Ocean Tibetan Plateau circulation diabatic heating

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Sensitivity of simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillations to cumulus schemes

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Science China Earth Sciences 2011年第11期54卷 1761-1771页

作者： HU WenTing duan anmin WU GuoXiong LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The sensitivity of simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) to different cumulus parameterization schemes was analyzed using an atmospheric general circulation model (latest version-SAMIL2.2.3) developed at the Laboratory for Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of *** show that the basic features of tropical climatological intraseasonal oscillations (CISO) can be captured using all three cumulus *** CISO simulated by the Tiedtke scheme was found to be more realistic than that of the Manabe and Zhang-McFarlane *** results of simulated transient intraseasonal oscillations (TISO) indicate that although the Tiedtke and the Zhang-McFarlane schemes in the new version SAMIL2.2.3 have been adjusted according to different problems,only the latter can simulate the eastward propagation of the 27-50-day TISO *** may be associated with the more realistic diabatic heating profile simulated by the Zhang-McFarlane *** addition,the Manabe scheme in SAMIL2.2.3 is the same as that in the prior version ***,some aspects of the physical process,such as the radiation scheme and aerosol condition,have been *** the eastward propagation from 100°E to the west of the tropical 27-50-day TISO mode only can be simulated using the Manabe scheme of SAMIL ***,not all the improvements of physical parameterization schemes work well in every *** coordinated developments between dynamic frame and physical processes,and among different physical processes,are important methods that may be used to improve the model.

关键词： cumulus parameterization scheme intraseasonal oscillation atmospheric general circulation model diabatic heatingprofile

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Impact of Surface Sensible Heating over the Tibetan Plateau on the Western Pacific Subtropical High: A Land–Air–Sea Interaction Perspective

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第2期34卷 157-168页

作者： anmin duan Ruizao SUN Jinhai HE State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of lnformation Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau （SHTP） on the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） with and without air-sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually fol- lowed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an en- hanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly （SSTA） in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection. Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the at- mospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air-sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land-air-sea interaction framework.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau surface sensible heating western Pacific subtropical high ENSO tropical air-sea interaction

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Propagation and Mechanisms of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation over the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2017年第2期31卷 321-335页

作者： Meirong WANG Jun WANG anmin duan Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjing 210044 Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610225 International Institute for Earth System Science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

The propagation and underlying mechanisms of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO）over the entire Asian monsoon region are investigated,based on ECMWF Interim reanalysis（ERA-Interim）data,GPCP precipitation data,and an atmospheric general circulation model（AGCM）.Statistical analyses indicate that the QBWO over the Asian monsoon region derives its main origin from the equatorial western Pacific and moves northwestward to the Bay of Bengal and northern India,and then northward to the Tibetan Plateau（TP）area,with a baroclinic vertical *** propagation of the QBWO is promoted by three main mechanisms：barotropic vorticity,boundary moisture advection,and surface sensible heating（SSH）.It is dominated by the barotropic vorticity effect when the QBWO signals are situated to the south of 20°*** the propagation taking place farther north toward the TP,the boundary moisture advection and SSH are the leading *** use an AGCM to verify the importance of SSH on the northward propagation of the *** simulations confirm the diagnostic conclusion that the equatorial western Pacific is the source of the ***,the model can accurately simulate the propagation pathway of the QBWO signals over the Asian monsoon ***,sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the SSH over northern India and the southern slope of the TP greatly contributes to the northward propagation of the QBWO as far as the TP area.

关键词： quasi-biweekly oscillation Asian monsoon region northward-propagating mechanism surface sensible heating atmospheric general circulation model

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