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Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropicalarea using different algorithms

Frontiers of Earth Science 2018年第4期12卷 661-671页

作者： ammar rafiei emam Martin KAPPAS Steven FASSNACHT Nguyen Hoang Khanh LINH Department of Cartography GIS and Remote SensingUniversity of Goettingen37077GoettingenGermany Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523-1476USA Faculty of Land Resources and Agricultural Environment (FLRAE) Flue University of Agriculture and Forestry (F1UAF)Hue UniversityHue City 0084Vietnam

Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R (2)), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor > 0.83, R-factor 0.91, NSE > 0.89, and 0.18 < PBIAS < 0.32. Hence, we would suggest to use SUFI-2 initially to set the parameter ranges, and further use PSO for final analysis. Indeed, the uncertainty analysis must be accounted when the outcomes of the model use for policy or management decisions.

关键词： SWAT-CUP GLUE SUFI2 ParaSol PSO Vietnam

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