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SubEpiPredict:A tutorial-based primer and toolbox for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 411-436页

作者： Gerardo Chowell Sushma Dahal amanda bleichrodt Amna Tariq James M.Hyman Ruiyan Luo Department of Population Health Sciences School of Public HealthGeorgia State UniversityAtlantaGAUSA Department of International Epidemiology and Population Studies Fogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA Department of Pediatrics School of MedicineStanford UniversityPalo AltoCAUSA Department of Mathematics Center for Computational ScienceTulane UniversityNew OrleansLAUSA

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous *** modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns,including plateaus,epidemic resurgences,and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different *** this tutorial paper,we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict,a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling *** toolbox can be used for model fitting,forecasting,and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score(WIS).We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model,constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models,*** the illustration of the toolbox,we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United *** MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences,including policymakers,and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds.

关键词： n-Sub-epidemic model Forecasting MATLAB Sub-epidemics Phenomenological models Performance metrics Model evaluation

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Value of macrobiopsies and transanal endoscopic microsurgery in the histological work-up of rectal neoplasms:A retrospective study

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology 2017年第6期9卷 251-256页

作者： Guus MJ Bokkerink Gert-Jan van der Wilt Dirk de Jong Han HJM van Krieken Robert P bleichrodt Johannes HW de Wilt Andreas JA Bremers Department of Surgery Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center Department of Health Evidence Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center Department of Gastroenterology Radboud Uni-versity Nijmegen Medical Center Department of Pathology Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center Department of of Surgery Saint Francis Hospital

To evaluate a step up approach: Taking macrobiopsies and performing excision biopsies in patients with suspected rectal cancer in which biopsies taken though the flexible endoscope showed benign histology. METHODSPatients with a rectal neoplasm who underwent flexible endoscopy and biopsies were included. In case of benign biopsies rigid rectoscopy and macrobiopsies were employed. If this failed to prove malignancy, transanal endoscopic microsurgery (TEM) was used in a final effort to establish a certain preoperative diagnosis. The preoperative results were compared with the findings after surgical excision and follow up to calculate the reliability of this algorithm. RESULTSOne hundred and thirty-two patients were included. One hundred and ten patients with a carcinoma and 22 with an adenoma. Seventy-five of 110 carcinomas were proven malignant after flexible endoscopy. With the addition of rigid endoscopy and taking of macrobiopsies, this number increased to 89. Performing TEM excision biopsies further enlarged the number of proven malignancies to 100. CONCLUSIONThe step-up approach includes taking macrobiopsies through the rigid rectoscope and performing excision biopsies using transanal endoscopic microsurgery in addition to flexible endoscopy. This approach, reduced the number of missed preoperative malignant diagnoses from 32% to 9%.

关键词： Rectal cancer Histology Biopsy Macrobiopsy Transanal endoscopic microsurgery Sampling error

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