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Simulating streamflow and water table depth with a coupled hydrological model

Water Science and Engineering 2010年第3期3卷 241-256页

作者： alphonce chenj.rayi guzha Thomas Byron HARDY Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering Southwest Florida Research and Education CenterUniversity of Florida River Systems Institute Texas State University

A coupled model integrating MODFLOW and TOPNET with the models interacting through the exchange of recharge and baseflow and river-aquifer interactions was developed and applied to the Big Darby Watershed in Ohio, USA. Calibration and validation results show that there is generally good agreement between measured streamflow and simulated results from the coupled model. At two gauging stations, average goodness of fit （ R2 ）, percent bias （ PB ）, and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency （ENS） values of 0.83, 11.15%, and 0.83, respectively, were obtained for simulation of streamflow during calibration, and values of 0.84, 8.75%, and 0.85, respectively, were obtained for validation. The simulated water table depths yielded average R2 valuesof0.77 and 0.76 for calibration and validation, respectively. The good match between measured and simulated streamflows and water table depths demonstrates that the model is capable of adequately simulating streamflows and water table depths in the watershed and also capturing the influence of spatial and temporal variation in recharge.

关键词： hydrological modeling model coupling," streamflow groundwater," TOPNET model," MODFLOW model," Big Darby Watershed

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Vulnerability of Kenya’s Water Towers to Future Climate Change: An Assessment to Inform Decision Making in Watershed Management

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American Journal of Climate Change 2020年第3期9卷 317-353页

作者： Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi Anthony M. Musili Viola A. Otieno Hussen S. Endris Geoffrey Sabiiti Mohammed A. Hassan Abebe Tadege Tsehayu Artan Guleid Zachary Atheru alphonce C. guzha Thomas De Meo Nikola Smith Dickson Lubanga Makanji John Kerkering Brehan Doud Enock Kanyanya IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Nairobi Kenya USDA Forest Service International Programs c/o African Wildlife Foundation (AWF) Karen Kenya USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region Portland OR USA Egerton University Njoro Kenya USDA Forest Service International Programs Washington DC USA USDA Forest Service International Programs Seattle USA USAID Kenya and East Africa Nairobi Kenya

Recent trends show that in the coming decades, Kenya’s natural resources will continue to face significant pressure due to both anthropogenic and natural stressors, and this will have greater negative impacts on socio-economic development including food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of these stressors is an important step to developing coping and adaptation strategies at every level. The Water Towers of Kenya play a critical role in supplying ecosystems services such as water supply, timber and non-timber forest products and regulating services such as climate and water quantity and quality. To assess the vulnerability of the Water Towers to climate change, the study adopted the IPCC AR4 framework that defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The historical trends in rainfall indicate that the three Water Towers show a declining rainfall trend during the March-April-May (MAM) main rainy season, while the October-November-December (OND) short rainy season shows an increase. The temperature patterns are consistent with the domain having a common rising trend with a rate in the range of 0.3°C to 0.5°C per decade. Projection analysis considered three emissions scenarios: low-emission (mitigation) scenario (RCP2.6), a medium-level emission scenario (RCP4.5), and a high-emission (business as usual) scenario (RCP8.5). The results of the high-emission scenario show that the annual temperature over the Water Towers could rise by 3.0°C to 3.5

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