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Modeling Consumer Price Index in Zambia: A Comparative Study between Multicointegration and Arima Approach

Open Journal of Statistics 2019年第2期9卷 245-257页

作者： Stanley Jere alick banda Rodgers Chilyabanyama Edwin Moyo Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics Northrise University Ndola Zambia

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important indicator used to determine inflation. The main objective of this research was to compare the forecasting ability of two time-series models using Zambia Monthly Consumer Price Index. We used monthly CPI data which were collected from January 2003 to December 2017. The models that were compared are the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) model and Multicointegration (ECM) model. Results show that the ECM was the best fit model of CPI in Zambia since it showed smallest errors measures. Lastly, a forecast was done using the ECM and results show an average growth rate for food CPI at 6.63% and an average growth rate for nonfood CPI at 7.41%. Forecasting CPI is an important factor for any economy because it is essential in economic planning for the future. Hence, identifying a more accurate forecasting model is a major contribution to the development of Zambia.

关键词： Consumer Price Index Multicointegration ARIMA ECM Forecast

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Forecasting Annual International Tourist Arrivals in Zambia Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing

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Open Journal of Statistics 2019年第2期9卷 258-267页

作者： Stanley Jere alick banda Bornwell Kasense Ian Siluyele Edwin Moyo Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority Lusaka Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics Northrise University Ndola Zambia

Tourism is one of the major contributors to foreign exchange earnings to Zambia and world economy. Annual International tourist arrivals in Zambia from 1995 to 2014 are considered in this paper. In this study we evaluated the model performance of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters exponential smoothing (HWES). The error indicators: Mean percentage error (MPE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute scaled error (MASE), Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) showed that HWES is an appropriate model with reasonable forecast accuracy. The HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) showed smallest error than those of the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) models. Hence, the HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) can be used to model annual international tourist arrivals in Zambia. Further, forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual international tourist arrivals of about 42% by 2024. Accurate forecasts are key to new investors and Policymakers. The Zambian government should use such forecasts in formulating policies and making strategies that will promote the tourism industry.

关键词： Zambia International Tourist Arrivals Holt-Winters Model ARIMA Forecasting

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Modelling of the Abundance of Malaria Mosquitoes Using Poisson Mixed Model

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Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics 2019年第10期7卷 2492-2507页

作者： Edwin Moyo Chipego Munachoonga Dennis Lubumbe alick banda Antony Ngunyi Stanley Jere Department of Mathematics and Statistics Northrise University Ndola Zambia Department of Business and Social Sciences Chreso University Lusaka Zambia Department of Research Northrise University Ndola Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Zambia Lusaka Zambia Department of Mathematics and Statistics Dedan Kimathi University of Science and Technology Nyeri Kenya Department of Mathematics and Statistics Mulungushi University Kabwe Zambia

Anopheles funestus and Anopheles gambiae are malaria vector mosquitoes. Knowing their resting behavior is important for implementing control methods. The aim of this study was to investigate the resting behaviour of the two malaria mosquitoes. The study was conducted in Kilombero River Valley and mosquitoes were collected using indoor and outdoor traps from 2012-2015. Poisson mixed models were used to quantify the impact of environment variables on resting behaviour. A log ratio rate between the type of trap and its interaction with environmental variables was used to determine if there was a change over time in the resting behaviour. A total of 4696 mosquitoes were resting indoors of which 57% were A. funestus and 43% were A. gambiae. Similarly, a total of 12,028 mosquitoes were resting outdoor of which 13% were A. funestus and 87% were A. gambiae. Temperature was significant and affected the resting behaviour of A. funestus. Humidity, saturation deficit and temperature were significant variables influencing the resting behaviour of A. gambiae. A. funestus was resting indoor while A. gambiae was resting outdoor over time generally. The findings of this study on the effects of environmental variables and the variations in the resting behaviour of A. gambiae and A. funestus could be used as a guide to implementing appropriate intervention measures such as indoor residential spraying (IRS), insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and mosquito repellents.

关键词： A. gambiae A. funestus Resting Behaviour Mosquito Density Environmental Variables

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Systematic review and meta-analysis of esophageal cancer in Africa:Epidemiology, risk factors, management and outcomes

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2019年第31期25卷 4512-4533页

作者： Akwi W Asombang Nathaniel Chishinga alick Nkhoma Jackson Chipaila Bright Nsokolo Martha Manda-Mapalo Joao Filipe G Montiero Lewis banda Kulwinder S Dua Division of Gastroenterology/Hepatology Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown UniversityProvidenceRI 02903United States Department for HIV Elimination Fulton County GovernmentAtlantaGA 30303United States Department of Gastroenterology Royal Stoke University HospitalUniversity Hospitals of North Midlands NHS TrustStaffordshire ST4 6QGUnited Kingdom Department of Surgery University Teaching Hospital-Adult HospitalLusaka 10101Zambia Department of Medicine Levy Mwanawasa University Teaching HospitalTropical Gastroenterology and Nutrition Group(TROPGAN)Lusaka 10101Zambia Department of Medicine The University of New MexicoAlbuquerqueNM 87106United States Department of Medicine Brown UniversityProvidenceRI 02903United States Hematology/Oncology Cancer Disease HospitalLusaka 10101Zambia Department of Medicine and Pediatrics Medical College of WisconsinMilwaukeeWI 53226United States

BACKGROUND Esophageal cancer(EC)is associated with a poor prognosis,particularly so in Africa where an alarmingly high mortality to incidence ratio prevails for this *** To provide further understanding of EC in the context of the unique cultural and genetic diversity,and socio-economic challenges faced on the African *** We performed a systematic review of studies from Africa to obtain data on epidemiology,risk factors,management and outcomes of EC.A non-systematic review was used to obtain incidence data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer,and the Cancer in Sub-Saharan *** searched EMBASE,PubMed,Web of Science,and Cochrane Central from inception to March 2019 and reviewed the list of articles *** effects metaanalyses were used to assess heterogeneity between studies and to obtain odds ratio(OR)of the associations between EC and risk factors;and incidence rate ratios for EC between sexes with their respective 95%confidence intervals(CI).RESULTS The incidence of EC is higher in males than females,except in North Africa where it is similar for both *** highest age-standardized rate is from Malawi(30.3 and 19.4 cases/year/100000 population for males and females,respectively)followed by Kenya(28.7 cases/year/100000 population for both sexes).The incidence of EC rises sharply after the age of 40 years and reaches a peak at 75 years ***-analysis shows a strong association with tobacco(OR 3.15,95%CI:2.83-3.50).There was significant heterogeneity between studies on alcohol consumption(OR 2.28,95%CI:1.94-2.65)and on low socioeconomic status(OR 139,95%CI:1.25-1.54)as risk factors,but these could also contribute to increasing the incidence of *** best treatment outcomes were with esophagectomy with survival rates of 76.6%at 3 years,and chemo-radiotherapy with an overall combined survival time of 267.50 *** Africa has high incidence and mortality rates of EC,with preventable and nonmodifiable ris

关键词： Esophageal cancer in Africa Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma Cancer in Africa Systematic review

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