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On optimal control at the onset of a new viral outbreak

Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第4期9卷 995-1006页

作者： alexandra smirnova Xiaojing Ye Department of Mathematics&Statistics Georgia State UniversityAtlantaUSA

We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet *** that stage,control is often limited to non-medical interventions like social distancing and other behavioral *** the SIR optimal control problem,we show that the running cost of control satisfying mild,practically justified conditions generates an optimal strategy,u(t),t∈[0,T],that is sustainable up until some moment τ∈[0,T).However,for any t∈[τ,T],the function u(t)will decline as t approaches T,which may cause the number of newly infected people to ***,the window from 0 to τ is the time for public health officials to prepare alternative mitigation measures,such as vaccines,testing,antiviral medications,and *** addition to theoretical study,we develop a fast and stable computational method for solving the proposed optimal control *** efficiency of the new method is illustrated with numerical examples of optimal control trajectories for various cost functions and *** results provide a comprehensive demonstration of the effects of control on the epidemic spread and mitigation expenses,which can serve as invaluable references for public health officials.

关键词： Epidemiology Compartmental model Transmission dynamic Optimal control

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Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第1期9卷 70-83页

作者： alexandra smirnova Mona Baroonian Department of Mathematics&Statistics Georgia State UniversityAtlantaUSA

In recent years,advanced regularization techniques have emerged as a powerful tool aimed at stable estimation of infectious disease parameters that are crucial for future projections,prevention,and *** other system parameters,i.e.,incubation and recovery rates,the case reporting rate,Ψ,and the time-dependent effective reproduction number,R_(e)t,are directly influenced by a large number of factors making it impossible to pre-estimate these parameters in any meaningful *** this study,we propose a novel iteratively-regularized trust-region optimization algorithm,combined with SuSvIuIvRD compartmental model,for stable reconstruction ofΨand R_(e)t from reported epidemic data on vaccination percentages,incidence cases,and daily *** innovative regularization procedure exploits(and takes full advantage of)a unique structure of the Jacobian and Hessian approximation for the nonlinear observation *** proposed inversion method is thoroughly tested with synthetic and real SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant data for different regions in the United States of America from July 9,2021,to November 25,*** study shows that case reporting rate during the Delta wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the US is between 12%and 37%,with most states being in the range from 15%to 25%.This confirms earlier accounts on considerable under-reporting of COVID-19 cases due to the impact of”silent spreaders”and the limitations of testing.

关键词： Epidemiology Incidence reporting rate Compartmental model Transmission dynamic Regularization algorithm

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A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2017年第2期2卷 268-275页

作者： alexandra smirnova Gerardo Chowell Department of Mathematics and Statistics Georgia State UniversityAtlantaUSA School of Public Health Georgia State UniversityAtlantaUSA Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies Fogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA

Public health officials are increasingly recognizing the need to develop disease-forecasting systems to respond to epidemic and pandemic *** instance,simple epidemic models relying on a small number of parameters can play an important role in characterizing epidemic growth and generating short-term epidemic *** the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of emerging infectious diseases,phenomenological models are useful to characterize epidemic growth patterns without the need to explicitly model transmission mechanisms and the natural history of the *** this article,our goal is to discuss and illustrate the role of regularization methods for estimating parameters and generating disease forecasts using the generalized Richards model in the context of the 2014e15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

关键词： Generalized Richards model Parameter estimation Regularization methods Epidemic forecasting Ebola

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The Biologic Active Zones(BAZ) in the White,Greenland,and Labrabor Seas and Its Climatological Modification:Comparative Study by Using Satellite and In-situ Data

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地学前缘 2009年第S1期16卷 120-121页

作者： smirnova alexandra Vladimir V.Melentyev Melentyev Vladimir Vasilievsky Island

The authors of this work have made an attempt to research a habitat of three existing populations of Greenland seal and conditions of biologically active zones(BAZ) located,accordingly,in White, Greenland and Labrador *** seal is an ice-associated sea mammal,and climate warming can be a decisive factor for its *** the researches of changes of ice state parameters of subarctic water areas are an urgent problem

关键词： biologically active zones satellite microwave sounding

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