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Economic Risk Assessment of Future Debris Flows by Machine Learning Method

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 149-164页

作者： Chenchen Qiu Lijun Su alessandro pasuto Giulia Bossi Xueyu Geng School of Engineering University of WarwickCoventry CV47ALUK Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection(IRPI-CNR) National Research Council of ItalyPadova 35127Italy

A reliable economic risk map is critical for effective debris-flow ***,the uncertainties surrounding future scenarios in debris-flow frequency and magnitude restrict its *** estimate the economic risks caused by future debris flows,a machine learning-based method was proposed to generate an economic risk map by multiplying a debris-flow hazard map and an economic vulnerability *** selected the Gyirong Zangbo Basin as the study area because frequent severe debris flows impact the area every *** debris-flow hazard map was developed through the multiplication of the annual probability of spatial impact,temporal probability,and annual *** employed a hybrid machine learning model-certainty factor-genetic algorithm-support vector classification-to calculate ***,a Poisson model was applied for temporal probabilities,while the determination of annual probability of spatial impact relied on statistical ***,four major elements at risk were selected for the generation of an economic loss map:roads,vegetation-covered land,residential buildings,and *** economic loss of elements at risk was calculated based on physical vulnerabilities and their economic ***,we proposed a physical vulnerability matrix for residential buildings,factoring in impact pressure on buildings and their horizontal distance and vertical distance to debrisflow *** this context,an ensemble model(XGBoost) was used to predict debris-flow volumes to calculate impact pressures on *** results show that residential buildings occupy 76.7% of the total economic risk,while roadcovered areas contribute approximately 6.85%.Vegetation-covered land and farmland collectively represent 16.45% of the entire *** findings can provide a scientific support for the effective mitigation of future debris flows.

关键词： Economic risk Future debris fows Gyirong Zangbo Basin Machine learning model Physical vulnerability matrix Southwest Tibet,China

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Towards hydrometeorological thresholds of reservoir-induced landslide from subsurface strain observations

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2024年第6期67卷 1907-1922页

作者： YE Xiao ZHU HongHu WANG Jia ZHENG WanJi ZHANG Wei SCHENATO Luca pasuto alessandro CATANI Filippo School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Nanjing UniversityNanjing210023China Department of Geosciences University of PadovaPadova35131Italy School of Geosciences and Info-Physics Central South UniversityChangsha410083China Department of Information Engineering University of PadovaPadova35131Italy National Research Council-Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection(CNR-IRPI) Padova35127Italy

Synergistic multi-factor early warning of large-scale landslides is a crucial component of geohazard prevention and mitigation efforts in reservoir *** forecasting and early warning based on surface displacements have been widely ***,the lack of direct subsurface real-time observations limits our ability to predict critical hydrometeorological conditions that trigger landslide *** this paper,we leverage subsurface strain data measured by high-resolution fiber optic sensing nerves that were installed in a giant reservoir landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)region,China,spanning a whole hydrologic year since February *** spatiotemporal strain profile has preliminarily identified the slip zones and potential drivers,indicating that high-intensity short-duration rainstorms controlled the landslide kinematics from an observation *** the time lag effect,we reexamined and quantified potential controls of accelerated movements using a data-driven approach,which reveals immediate response of landslide deformation to extreme rainfall with a zero-day *** identify critical hydrometeorological rules in accelerated movements,accounting for the dual effect of rainfall and reservoir water level variations,we thus construct a landslide prediction model that relies upon the boosting decision tree(BDT)algorithm using a dataset comprising daily rainfall,rainfall intensity,reservoir water level,water level fluctuations,and slip zone strain time *** results indicate that landslide acceleration is most likely to occur under the conditions of mid-low water levels(i.e.,57.9 mm and rainfall intensity>24.4 mm/h).Moreover,this prediction model allows us to update hydrometeorological thresholds by incorporating the latest monitoring *** on the shoulder of this landslide case,our study informs a practical and reliable path

关键词： slow-moving landslide fiber-optic monitoring subsurface strain hydrometeorological threshold extreme weather

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Thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical responses of a reservoir-induced landslide tracked by high-resolution fiber optic sensing nerves

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第3期16卷 1018-1032页

作者： Xiao Ye Hong-Hu Zhu Gang Cheng Hua-Fu Pei Bin Shi Luca Schenato alessandro pasuto School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Nanjing UniversityNanjing210023China School of Computer Science North China Institute of Science and Technology(National Safety Training Center of Coal Mines)Beijing101601China State Key Lab of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Department of Geotechnical EngineeringDalian University of TechnologyDalian116024China National Research Council-Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection(CNR-IRPI) Padova35127Italy Department of Information Engineering University of PadovaPadova35131Italy

Thermo-poro-mechanical responses along sliding zone/surface have been extensively ***,it has not been recognized that the potential contribution of other crucial engineering geological interfaces beyond the slip surface to progressive ***,we aim to investigate the subsurface multiphysics of reservoir landslides under two extreme hydrologic conditions(*** and dry),particularly within sliding *** on ultra-weak fiber Bragg grating(UWFBG)technology,we employ specialpurpose fiber optic sensing cables that can be implanted into boreholes as“nerves of the Earth”to collect data on soil temperature,water content,pore water pressure,and *** Xinpu landslide in the middle reach of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China was selected as a case study to establish a paradigm for in situ thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical *** UWFBG-based sensing cables were vertically buried in a 31 m-deep borehole at the foot of the landslide,with a resolution of 1 m except for the pressure *** reported field measurements covering the period 2021 and 2022 and produced the spatiotemporal profiles throughout the *** show that wet years are more likely to motivate landslide motions than dry *** annual thermally active layer of the landslide has a critical depth of roughly 9 m and might move downward in warmer *** dynamic groundwater table is located at depths of 9e15 m,where the peaked strain undergoes a periodical response of leap and withdrawal to annual hydrometeorological *** interface behaviors may support the interpretation of the contribution of reservoir regulation to slope stability,allowing us to correlate them to local damage events and potential global *** paper also offers a natural framework for interpreting thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical signatures from creeping reservoir bank slopes,which may form the basis for a landslide monitoring and early warning system.

关键词： Reservoir landslide Thermo-hydro-poro-mechanical response Ultra-weak fiber bragg grating(UWFBG) subsurface evolution Engineering geological interface Geotechnical monitoring

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Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: a research overview

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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第6期19卷 1487-1494页

作者： ALCANTARA-AYALA Irasema CUI Peng pasuto alessandro Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)Mexico City 04510Mexico Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China CNR-IRPI Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological ProtectionC.so Stati UnitiPadova 435127Italy.

This paper gives an account of the diverse dimensions of research on disaster risk reduction in mountain regions derived from an open call of the Journal of Mountain Science that brought 21 *** special issue includes topics as diverse as landslide dynamics and mechanisms,landslide inventories and landslide susceptibility models,insights to landslide hazards and disasters and mitigation measures,disaster response and disaster risk *** overall structure of the paper takes the form of three *** first part begins by laying out the significance of disaster risk reduction in mountain areas,whereas the second one looks at the research insights on disaster risk reduction in mountains provided by the contributions comprised in the special *** final section identifies areas for further research.

关键词： disaster risk reduction hazards integrated disaster risk management mitigation measures response mountains

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Disaster risk reduction in mountain areas: an initial overview on seeking pathways to global sustainability

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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第6期19卷 1838-1846页

作者： ALCáNTARA-AYALA Irasema pasuto alessandro CUI Peng Institute of Geography National Autonomous University of Mexico(UNAM)Mexico City 04510Mexico CNR-IRPI Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological ProtectionC.so Stati UnitiPadova 435127Italy. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China

As disasters cripple the world’s prospects for sustainable development, protecting the most vulnerable groups exposed to hazards is one of the main challenges facing humanity. Owing to the systemic nature of risk and the interactions and interdependencies between upland and lowland systems, healthy and productive mountain households and livelihoods are essential to global sustainability. This paper argues that, building on existing international frameworks, and integrated knowledge and praxis, the development of a global policy agenda should be established to build sustainable peace, sustainable security, and development.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Integrated disaster risk management Global sustainability International frameworks Science-based policymaking

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Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

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Geoscience Frontiers 2021年第1期12卷 231-241页

作者： Giacomo Titti Giulia Bossi Gordon G.D.Zhou Gianluca Marcato alessandro pasuto DICAM-UNIBO Department of CivilChemicalEnvironmental and Materials EngineeringAlma Mater Studiorum University of BolognaViale Risorgimento 2Bologna40136Italy IRPI-CNR Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological ProtectionNational Research CouncilC.so Stati Uniti4Padova35127Italy IMHE-CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesBlock 4Renminnanlu RoadChengdu610041China

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor *** landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error *** paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring *** method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured *** reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the *** final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an *** operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system *** proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.

关键词： Automatic landslide modelling FLAC3D~(TM) Back-analysis Optimization Decision Support System

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Earthquake-triggered landslides affecting a UNESCO Natural Site：the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in the World National Park,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2018年第7期15卷 1412-1428页

作者： WANG Jiao JIN Wen CUI Yi-fei ZHANG Wei-feng WU Chun-hao alessandro pasuto Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Chinese Academy of SciencesInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China University of ChineseAcademy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong China Sino-Italian Laboratory on Geological and Hydrological Hazards Chengdu 610041 China National Research Council of Italy-Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection Padova Italy

On August 8^(th), 2017, an Ms 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, northern Sichuan Province, China. The Jiuzhaigou Valley World National Park was the most affected area due to the epicentre being located in the scenic area of the park. Understanding the distribution characteristics of landslides triggered by earthquakes to help protect the natural heritage sites in Jiuzhaigou Valley remains a scientific challenge. In this study, a relatively complete inventory of the coseismic landslides triggered by the earthquake was compiled through the interpretation of high-resolution images combined with a field investigation. The results indicate thatcoseismic landslides not only are concentrated in Rize Gulley, Danzu Gully and Zezhawa Gully in the study area but also occur in the front part of Shuzheng Gully along the road network(from the entrance of Jiuzhaigou Valley to Heye Village). The landslides predominantly occur on the east-and southeastfacing slopes in the study area, which is a result of the integrated action of the valley direction and fault movement direction. The back-slope effect and the slope structure caused the difference in coseismic landslide distribution within the three gullies(Danzu Gully, Rize Gully, and Zezhawa Gully) near the inferred fault. In addition, the topographic position index was used to analyse the impact of microlandforms on earthquake-triggered landslides by considering the effect of the slope angle. The study results reveal a higher concentration of landslides in the slope position class of the middle slope(30°-50°) in Jiuzhaigou Valley. These findings can provide scientific guidance for the protection of natural heritage sites and post-disaster reconstruction in Jiuzhaigou Valley.

关键词： Earthquake-triggered landslides Spatial distribution Landslide area ratio Slope position

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An international program on Silk Road Disaster Risk Reduction--a Belt and Road initiative (2016-2020)

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Journal of Mountain Science 2018年第7期15卷 1383-1396页

作者： LEI Yu CUI Peng Amar Deep REGMI Virginia MURRAY alessandro pasuto Giacomo TITTI Muhammad SHAFIQUE Tilak PRIYADARSHANA D.G. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Bering 100049 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Public Health England London 133-155 England UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group Geneva Switzerland Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Scientific Committee Beijing 100094 China Research Institute for C-eo-Hydrological Protection National Research Council 4- 35127 Padova Italy National Center of excellence in Geology University of Peshawar Peshawar 25130 Pakistan Internal Quality Assurance Unit &Center for International Affairs University ofRuhuna Matara Sri Lanka

Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) is a Chinese national strategy which calls for cooperative economic, political and cultural exchange at the global level along the ancient Silk Road. The overwhelming natural hazards located along the belt and road bring great challenges to the success of BRI. In this framework, a 5-year international program was launched to address issues related to hazards assessment and disaster risk reduction(DRR). The first workshop of this program was held in Beijing with international experts from over 15 countries. Risk conditions on Belt and Road Countries(BRCs) have been shared and science and technology advancements on DRR have been disseminated during the workshop. Under this program, six task forces have been setup to carry out collaborative research works and three prioritized study areas have been established. This workshop announced the launching of this program which involved partners from different countries including Pakistan, Nepal, Russia, Italy, United Kingdom, Sri Lanka and Tajikistan. The program adopted the objectives of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and United Nation Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and was implemented to assess disaster risk in BRCs and to propose suitable measures for disaster control which can be appropriate both for an individual country and for specific sites. This paper deals with the outcomes of the workshop and points out opportunities for the near future international cooperation on this matter.

关键词： Natural hazards Silk Road Disaster risk reduction Belt and Road Initiative Sendai Framework International collaboration program

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Characteristics and triggering mechanism of Xinmo landslide on 24 June 2017 in Sichuan, China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第9期14卷 1689-1700页

作者： SU Li-jun HU Kai-heng ZHANG Wei-feng WANG Jiao LEI Yu ZHANG Chong-lei CUI Peng alessandro pasuto ZHENG Quan-hong Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Bering 100049 China Sino-Italian Laboratory on Geological and Hydrological Hazards Chengdu 610041 China National Research Council of Italy-Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection Padova Italy Sichuan Bureau of Surveging Mapping and C-eoinformation Chengdu 610041 China

At 5: 39 AM on 24 June 2017, a huge landslide-debris avalanche occurred on Fugui Mountain at Xinmo village, Diexi town, Maoxian county, Sichuan province, China. The debris blocked the Songpinggou River for about 2 km, resulting in a heavy loss of both human lives and properties(10 deaths, 3 injuries, 73 missing, and 103 houses completely destroyed). The objectives of this paper are to understand the overall process and triggering factors of this landslide and to explore the affecting factors for its long term evolution before failure. Post event surveys were carried out the day after the landslide occurrence. Information was gathered from literature and on-site investigation and measurement. Topography, landforms, lithology, geological setting, earthquake history, meteorological and hydrological data of the area were analysed. Aerial photographs and other remote sensing information were used for evaluation and discussion. Eye witnesses also provided a lot of helpful information for us to understand the process of initiation, development and deposition. The depositional characteristics of the moving material as well as the traces of the movement,the structural features of the main scarp and the seismic waves induced by the slide are presented and discussed in detail in this paper. The results show that the mechanism of the landslide is a sudden rupture of the main block caused by the instability of a secondary block at a higher position. After the initiation, the failed rock mass at higher position overloaded the main block at the lower elevation and collapsed in tandem. Fragmentation of the rock mass occurred later, thus forming a debris avalanche with high mobility. This landslide case indicates that such seismic events could influence geological hazards for over 80 years and this study provides reference to the long term susceptibility and risk assessment of secondary geological hazards from earthquake.

关键词： High-position landslide Xinmo landslide Landslide mechanism Earthquake effects Rock fall Debris avalanche

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滑坡监测经验评述

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水文地质工程地质技术方法动态 2006年第1期 12-23页

作者： Maceo-Giovanni Angeli a alessandro pasuto Sandro Silvano 申健文（翻译）宝萍（翻译） National Research Council -I.R.P.I. Institute via Madonna Alta 126-06128 Perugia Italy National Research Council -I.R.P.I. Institute C.so Stati Uniti 4-35127 P 中国地质大学（北京）水资源与环境学院北京海淀区学院路29号 100083

过去几年里，科学界己越来越重视对自然现象的监测。自然现象监测的目的，是弄清其破坏过程的形成机理、制定适当的预防措施、减缓灾害影响、减少人类生命和财产的损失。为探测不同地质和环境背景下的斜坡稳定条件，意大利自1982年以来... 详细信息

过去几年里，科学界己越来越重视对自然现象的监测。自然现象监测的目的，是弄清其破坏过程的形成机理、制定适当的预防措施、减缓灾害影响、减少人类生命和财产的损失。为探测不同地质和环境背景下的斜坡稳定条件，意大利自1982年以来开展了一系列岩土工程调查。对众多类型滑坡及其可能的社会经济影响的调查显示，在滑坡研究中需要应用最新技术对滑坡进行连续监测。为此，意大利已在数个滑坡上建立了连接多个传感器的自动监测系统（同时也有助于民防）。在该项研究中，我们不仅发现了一些问题，并且找到一些解决方案。本文结合了3个滑坡的研究，讨论了与监测仪器安装和管理有关的主要问题。

关键词：仪器安装意大利滑坡预警系统

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