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Relationship between Change of Diet and Poverty in Mexico: A Stochastic Analysis

Food and Nutrition Sciences 2016年第2期7卷 83-89页

作者： Fatima Ezzahra Housni Humberto Bracamontes del Toro Alejandro Macías Virginia Gabriela Aguilera Cervantes abdessamad najine Isaí Guízar Mateos Southern Region University Center University of Guadalajara Guadalajara M&eacute xico Cd. Guzmá n Institute of Technology Cd. Guzm&aacute n M&eacute xico Sultan Moulay Slimane University Beni-Mellal Morocco Monterrey Institute of Technology Zapopan M&eacute xico

Background: In this article, we seek to break the paradigm of traditional estimates (deterministically) to estimate the probability of transition from poverty and diet change in Mexico through a stochastic model while providing a comparative study in the time between the diet change and poverty. Methods: A model based on the theory of Markov applied to the different dimensions of poverty and diet type from aggregate data from government agencies was used. Also likely future state changes were estimated and Monte Carlo simulation was used to find a balance between the transition probabilities of the different states. Results: It was shown that there was a high probability of consuming more fat than protein and carbohydrates in Mexico. In the case of poverty, it was found that poverty of patrimony presented the highest probability of change. Estimates for 2030 show as well that the Mexican population will have equal probabilities of state transition to the type of diet and poverty, as long as you consider changing some current values of both consumption and poverty. Conclusions: It was shown that there was indeed a close relationship between poverty of patrimony and an unbalanced diet where the probability of fat intake was high. The stochastic approach had enabled us, in addition to linking poverty and changing diet, to prevent the Mexican population of future scenarios that could be dramatic and, to avoid this situation, alternatives of change of state consumption and poverty had been proposed.

关键词： Stochastic Poverty in Mexico Diet Change Probability of Transition

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Mapping and Characterization of Agricultural Systems from Time Series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Northeast Area of Tadla, Morocco

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Natural Resources 2017年第1期8卷 24-30页

作者： Didi Salahddine Fatima Ezzahra Housni abdessamad najine Amina Wafik Mohamed Aadraoui Fatima Zahra Hafiane Humberto Bracamontes del Toro Valuation Laboratory and Natural Resources Management Faculty of Science and Technology University Sultan Moulay Slimane Beni Mellal Morocco Southern Region University Center University of Guadalajara Ciudad Guzm&aacute n M&eacute xico Dynamic Laboratory of the Lithosphere and the Genesis of Mineral and Energy Resources Department of Geology Faculty of Science Semlalia University Cadi Ayyad Marrakech Morocco Laboratory of Geosciences and Environment Faculty of Science and Technology University Sultan Moulay Slimane Beni Mellal Morocco Unit Pollution Ecotoxicology and Risk Sanitary Scientific Institute Mohammed V University Rabat Morocco Cd. Guzmá n Institute of Technology Ciudad Guzm&aacute n M&eacute xico

Introduction: Agriculture is the focus of sustainable development and food security in Morocco, contributing 14% to the national economy and its socio-economic impact depends on agro-climatic conditions and the availability of water resources. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that agriculture in Morocco, and especially in the Tadla region, is distributed according to the availability of underground water. Method: This work was carried out in the transition zone between the phosphate plateau and the plain of Tadla, a site of more than 124,000 ha. To achieve the objectives set, we used Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) data sharpened to 15 m. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifications were applied to the 10-period Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) series. Results: It is shown that agriculture in Morocco is highly dependent on irrigation. In the classified map, it can be observed that the southern region, a zone with a semi-arid climate, which generally relies on irrigation, is very developed in agriculture, whereas in the north most of the soil is bared with cereals that mainly depend on rainfall. Conclusion: The possible water shortage in the region puts food availability in Morocco at risk of inadequacy. Food security depends on the availability of water, a natural resource at risk of extinction. Therefore, strategies to reduce the risk of agricultural drought must be at the forefront of Moroccan policies.

关键词： Water Availability Landsat-8 OLI Crop Mapping Plain de Tadla Morocco

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