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Three-dimensional decomposition method of global atmospheric circulation

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 386-402页

作者： LIU HaiTao1,2,3. HU ShuJuan4, XU Ming5 & CHOU JiFan6,7 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3.Beijing Climate center, Beijing {3., china 4 Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 5 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 20003., china 6 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 7 china meteorological administration training center, Beijing {3., china 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China 3. Beijing Climate center Beijing 100089 China 4. Department of Mathematics Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 5. Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 China 6. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 7. china meteorological administration {3. center Beijing 100089 China

By adopting the idea of three-dimensional Walker, Hadley and Rossby stream functions, the global atmospheric circulation can be considered as the sum of three stream functions from a global perspective. Therefore, a m... 详细信息

关键词： three-dimensional decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation generalized Walker Hadley and Rossby stream functions existence and uniqueness vertical motion

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3.1 National Climate center,china meteorological {3.,Beijing 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,china 3.National meteorological center,china meteorological {3.,Beijing 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate center,china meteorological {3.,Beijing 100081,china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/National Climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3.region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the “00.7” severe rainfall in Beijing

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2005年第9期15卷 818-826页

作者： ZHANG Chaolin1**, JI Chongping1, KUO Yinghwa2, FAN Shuiyong1, XUAN Chunyi3.and CHEN Min1(1. Institute of Urban Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Beijing {3., china 2. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 803.7-3.00, USA 3. Beijing meteorological Bureau, Beijing {3., china) Institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100089 China. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO 80307-3000 USA. Beijing meteorological Bureau Beijing 100089 China

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4—5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3.VAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63. for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.

关键词： topography heavy rainfall 3.VAR ground-based GPS numerical simulation.

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3. DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong Climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 4 National Climate center, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong Climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing Climate center (BCC), china meteorological {3. (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3. In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13. respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 3. d, 3.d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2 & CHOU Jifan2,3.1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 3. training {3. for china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2 & GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 china meteorological {3. training Centre, Beijing 100081, china 3.Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory, Harbin 15003., china 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. china meteorological administration {3. Centre Beijing 100081 China 3. Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory Harbin 150030 China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2, DING Yihui3.& ZHANG Renhe2 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, china 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 3. National Climate center, Chinese meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China 3. National Climate center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3.4, HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3.1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china 2 National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china 4 National center for Space Weather, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for EnvironmentalSatellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003.(28OCT03. respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 3. MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03.event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 3. MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03.event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003. when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 3.5 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03.case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003.captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系