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Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO_2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature's trend prediction

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Science china Earth sciences 2004年第z1期47卷 131-141页

作者： LI Dongliang, QUO Hui, WANG Wen & WEI LiCold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, lanzhou 730000, china department of atmospheric {4., lanzhou university, lanzhou 730000, china 1. Cold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Science 730000 Lanzhou China2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University 730000 Lanzhou China

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.4.℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64.to 0.73.

关键词： Qinghai-Xizang railway, annual mean air temperature, sunspot cycle length (SCL), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), prediction.

Computational stability of the forced dissipative nonlinear atmospheric equations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第10期44卷 949-952页

作者： LI Jianping and CHOU Jifan LASG , Institute of atmospheric Physics , Chinese Academy of sciences , Beijing 100080, china department of atmospheric sciences , lanzhou university , lanzhou 730000, china Beijing Meteorological College, Beijing 100081, china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Beijing Meteorological College Beijing China

A new concept of computational quasi-stability (CQS) is introduced to study the computational stability (CS) of the forced dissipative nonlinear (FDN) evolution equations. Based on the concept, the CQS criterion of difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations is obtained. So it provides the theoretical basis for designing the computational stable difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations.

关键词： computational stability (CS) computational quasi-stability (CQS) operator equation difference scheme forced dissipative nonlinear (FDN) equations.

Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. department of atmospheric sciences, lanzhou {4., lanzhou 730000, china 2. Training Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Training Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2 & CHOU Jifan2,3 1. LASG, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. department of atmospheric sciences, lanzhou university, lanzhou 730000, china 3. Training Center for china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型

Operator constraint principle for simplifying atmospheric dynamical equations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第12期46卷 1053-1056页

作者： LI Jianping & CHOU Jifan1. National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029,{4. 2. department of atmospheric sciences, lanzhou university, lanzhou 730000,{4. National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University

Based on the qualitative theory of atmospheric dynamical equations, a new method for simplifying equations, the operator constraint principle, is presented. The general rule of the method and its mathematical strictness are discussed. Moreover, the way that how to use the method to simplify equations rationally and how to get the simplified equations with harmonious and consistent dynamics is given.

关键词： simplification operator equation operator constraint principle.

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1251-1257页

作者： FAN Ke Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china department of atmospheric Science, Yun-nan university, Kunming 650091, china 1. Institute of atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004. with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.4. and -0.4. respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

关键词： typhoon sea ice cover North Pacific teleconnection

Progress in studies of the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in early-mid Holocene

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第12期18卷 1459-1464页

作者： Jianbin Huang~a Shaowu Wang~a Xinyu Wen~a Bao Yang~b a department of atmospheric sciences,School of Physics,Peking university,Beijing 100871,{4. b Laboratory for Desert and Desertification,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of sciences,lanzhou 730000,{4. [a]department of atmospheric sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China [b]Laboratory for Desert and Desertification Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China

Studies on the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in the early-mid Holocene are reviewed in this paper. High-resolution proxy data indicated that the African Humid Period,strong summer monsoon from the Arabian Sea to South Asia, northward migration of ITCZ (lntertropical Convergence Zone) over the northern South America,and the humid period of china appeared in 10.5-5.5 kaBP,10.0-6.0 kaBP,10.5 5.4.kaBP,and 11.0-8.0 kaBP,*** studies proved that summer inso- lation over the Northern Hemisphere increased following the changes of precession in the early Holocene,which increased the land-sea temperature contrasts,intensified the summer monsoon circulation in the Northern Hemisphere,and finally induced a humid climate over the area under the influence of summer ***,modeling results underestimated the increase of precipitation and the degree of northward extension of monsoon rain belt compared with palaeo-environmental *** discrepancies between the modeling results and the palaeo-environmental data may be associated with the changes of North Atlantic circulation,sea ice and veg- etation ***,climate of the humid period was not stable,in which several droughts were inlaid on centennial *** this review,perspectives for further studies of the climate change of the humid period in the early-mid Holocene are also proposed.

关键词： Holocene Humid period Precession Summer monsoon

The effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1993年第4期12卷 535-547页

作者： Qian Yongfu department of atmospheric sciences, Nanjing university, Nanjing 210008,{4. Dept. of atmospheric sciences Nanjing Univ. Nanjing 21008 China. China

A modified and improved primitive equation numerical model with p-sigma incorporated vertical coordinates is used to simulate the effects of different sea surface temperature distributions over the western Pacific on the summer monsoon properties. The different sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are automatically generated in the time integrations by using two different SST models, one of which is called the deep ocean model (DOM) and the other the shallow ocean model (SOM). The SST generated by the DOM has the distribution pattern of the initial SST which is similar to the pattern in the cold water years over the western Pacific, while the SST generated by the SOM has the pattern similar to that in the warm water years. The differences between the experimental results by using DOM and SOM are analyzed in detail. The analyses indicate that the most basic and important characteristics of the summer monsoon climate can be simulated successfully in both experiments, that means the climatic properties in the monsoonal climate regions are mainly determined by the seasonal heating, the contrast between the land and the sea, the topography, and the physical properties of the underlying surfaces. However, the differences between the two experiments tell us that the climatic properties in the summer monsoon regions in the cold water year and the warm water year do differ from each other in details. In the warm water year, the thermal contrast between the land and the sea becomes weaker. Over the warm water area, the upward motions are induced and the dynamical conditions favorable for the convective activities are formed, the Somali low-level cross equatorial current is somewhat weakened, while the cross equatorial currents, east of 90°E, are strongly strengthened, the precipitation amount in the tropical regions largely increases, and the precipitation over the coastal regions increases, too. However the precipitation over the southeast china and its coastal area d

关键词： Sea surface temperature anomaly monsoon climate modelling computational models of SST

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4. ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. {4. of atmospheric sciences, Yunnan university, Kunming 650091, china 3. china Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, china 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100039, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.