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Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,national Climate center,china meteorological Administration,{4. {5.,china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/national Climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2 1. national meteorological center, beijing 100081,{4. 2. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 1. national meteorological center 100081 Beijing China 2. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences 100081 Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884.to 2002. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2000, including the 24.4. h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

Simulation of 1991-2005.Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4.1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 5.0080, china 2 Guangdong Climate {4., Guangzhou 5.0080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4.national Climate {4., china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong Climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China national Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing Climate center (BCC), china meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-200{4.are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 199{4. 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004., especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 1{4.years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.4.4. while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 national Climate center,china meteorological Administration,{4. {5.,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,{4. 100029,china 3 national meteorological center,china meteorological Administration,{4. {5.,china national Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Absolute radiometric calibration of CBERS-02 IRMSS thermal band

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Science china(Technological Sciences) 2005年第S2期48卷 72-90页

作者： ZHANG Yong1,2,3, GU Xingfa1,3,4. YU Tao1,3, ZHANG Yuxiang5. CHEN Liangfu1,3, LI Xiaoying1,2,3, LI Xiaowen1,3 & HE Liming6 1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences and beijing Normal University, beijing 100101, china 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100039, china 3. The {5. for national Spaceborne Demonstration, beijing 100101, china 4. Institut national de la Recherche Agronomique, Climat Sol Environnement, 84.14.Avignon, France 5. national Satellite meteorological {5., beijing 100081, china 6. State Environmental Protection Administration, beijing 100029, china Chinese Acad Sci Inst Remote Sensing Applicat State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci Beijing 100101 Peoples R China beijing Normal Univ State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci Beijing 100101 Peoples R China Chinese Acad Sci Grad Univ Beijing 100039 Peoples R China Ctr Natl Spaceborne Demonstrat Beijing 100101 Peoples R China INRA F-84914 Avignon France Natl Satellite Meteorol Ctr Beijing 100081 Peoples R China State Environm Protect Adm Beijing 100029 Peoples R China

Based on the laboratory calibration before launch of CBERS-02 IRMSS thermal infrared channel, the onboard blackbody calibration, the radiometric cross- calibration against TERRA MODIS corresponding channel and the in-flight field calibration at Lake Qinghai: water surface radiometric calibration test site of china on Aug. 17, 2004.are carried out in this research. When making onboard blackbody calibration of CBERS-02 IRMSS, it is necessary to understand inside structures and light path in IRMSS camera and receive and process calibration blackbody signals at normal and high temperatures. Onboard blackbody calibration results of each detector are very important to relative radiometric calibration of images processing and absolute radiometric calibration of each detector. In-flight field calibration mainly contains field experiments, obtaining synchronous images, spectrum marching and MODTRAN radiative transmi- ssion computation. Radiometric cross-calibration of CBERS-02 IRMSS thermal band against TERRA MODIS selected 6 times synchronous images of two sensors passing through Lake Qinghai and Lake Taihu from August to December, 2004.to compute the cross calibration data. Combining the in-flight field calibration and radiometric cross calibration data, the absolute radiometric calibration coefficients are calculated by the linear regression method. This new calibration model can obviously control the radiometric calibration uncertainties aroused by the single point method used in the in-flight calibration of CBERS-02 IRMSS, this kind of sensors cannot receive the cosmic background radiation. In this research, the radiometric calibration coefficients obtained through the linear regression model are 8.5. (gain, unit: DN/W m?2sr?1μm?1) and 4..92 (offset, unit: DN).

关键词： CBERS-02 IRMSS thermal band in-flight field calibration onboard blackbody calibration cross calibration.

Sea-salt aerosol transport patterns over the Northern Hemisphere inferred from two subarctic ice core records

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第4期48卷 576-584页

作者： YAN Yuping1,2, KANG Shichang2,3,5. SUN Junying4.5. Paul A. Mayewski2 & QIN Dahe5.1. national Climate {4., china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china 2. Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04.69, USA 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100085. china 4. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 5. Key Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment, Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, china 1. national Climate center China Meteorological Administration 100081 Beijing China 2. Climate Change Institute University of Maine 04469 Orono ME USA 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 100085 Beijing China 4. Key Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences 730000 Lanzhou China 5. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences 100081 Beijing China

Atmospheric circulation reconstruction based on glaciochemical records requires knowledge of chemical concentration controls, such as source, transport pathway and strength. To gain insight into these processes, the relationships between glaciochemical records from two Northern Hemisphere sites (Mt. Logan in Yukon Territory and 20D in southern Greenland) and instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) series are investigated. Calibrations between Mt. Logan sea-salt sodium (ssNa+) concentration and SLP series show that ssNa+ concentrations are closely correlated with the autumntime (SON) Aleutian Low and the summertime (JJA) North Pacific Subtropical High. Both the deepened Aleutian Low and enhanced North Pacific Sub- tropical High strengthen the transport of sea-salt aerosols from the North Pacific to the Mt. Logan region. Calibrations between 20D ssNa+ concentrations and SLP series indicate that ssNa+ concentrations are closely related to the wintertime (Jan.) Icelandic Low. A deepening of the Icelandic Low strengthens winter storms and frequent cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and pushes more sea-salt laden air masses to the Greenland ice sheet. Therefore, ice core ssNa+ records from the Mt. Logan region can be considered as a proxy for reconstructing the au- tumntime Aleutian Low and summertime North Pacific Subtropical High, and the ssNa+ records from Greenland ice core (20D) may provide a proxy for reconstructing the wintertime Icelandic Low.

关键词： sea-salt aerosol, ice core records, sea level pressure, subarctic regions.

The numerical simulation of Pacific Ocean circulation with five-level model

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1993年第3期12卷 395-404页

作者： Xing Runan and Chao Jiping beijing meteorological College, beijing 100081 china {4. Research {5. for Marine Environmental Forecasts, beijing 100081, china

A five-level oceanic primitive equation model has been developed. This model is integrated numerically with annual mean wind stress and heat flux at sea surface for 30 a. The ocean circulations tend to quasi-stability. The simulated results show that the computed annual mean currents and sea surface temperature agree well with the observations.

关键词： heat The numerical simulation of Pacific Ocean circulation with five-level model

Principle and application of three-band gradient difference vegetation index

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第2期48卷 241-249页

作者： TANG Shihao, ZHU Qijiang, WANG Jindi, ZHOU Yuyu & ZHAO Feng Research center for Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Geography, beijing Normal University, beijing 100875.{4. national Satellite {5. center,{4. {5. Administration, beijing 100081,{4. 1. Research center for Remote Sensing and GIS Department of Geography Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China 2. national Satellite meteorological center China Meteorological Administration 100081 Beijing China

Vegetation index is a simple, effective and experiential measurement of terrestrial vegetation activity, and plays a very important role in qualitative and quantitative remote sensing. Aiming at shortages of current vegetation indices, and starting from the analysis of vegetation spectral characteristics, we put forward a new vegetation index, the three-band gradient difference vegetation index (TGDVI), and established algorithms to inverse crown cover fraction and leaf area index (LAI) from it. Theoretical analysis and model simulation show that TGDVI has high saturation point and the ability to remove the influence of background to some degree, and the explicit functional relation with crown cover fraction and LAI can be established. Moreover, study shows that TGDVI also has the ability to partly remove the influence of thin cloud. Experiment in the Shunyi District, beijing, china shows that reasonable result can be reached using the vegetation index to retrieve LAI. We also theoretically analyzed the reason why the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) owns the low saturation point, and show that it is determined by the definition of NDVI and the characteristic of vegetation spectra, and is unavoidable to some degree. Meanwhile, through model simulation, we also indicate that the relationship between simple ratio vegetation index (SR) and LAI closes to a piecewise linear one instead of a linear one, which is mainly caused by the influence of background and different change rates of reflectance in red and infrared bands with LAI increasing.

关键词： vegetation index, remote sensing, LAI, crown cover fraction, remote sensing inversion.

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3,4. HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3 1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china 2 {4. Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, {5. 100012, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china 4.{4. center for Space Weather, china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for EnvironmentalSatellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14.July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14.July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14.R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 5.R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 15. pfu, which was much lower than 35. pfu measured on 14.July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系