检索结果-南通市图书馆

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,national Climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/national Climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

在线全文

同方期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 national Climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100029,china 3.national meteorological center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china national Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong Climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 national Climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou China Guangdong Climate center Guangzhou China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China national Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing Climate center (BCC), china meteorological administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in china induced by greenhouse effect

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Journal of Environmental Sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： Zhao Zongci and Ding YihuiAcademy of meteorological Science,State meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in china .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in china as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in china due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in china, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3,4, HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3 1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 national Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100012, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 4 national center for Space Weather, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing China national Astronomical Observatoires Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系

Principle and application of three-band gradient difference vegetation index

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第2期48卷 241-249页

作者： TANG Shihao, ZHU Qijiang, WANG Jindi, ZHOU Yuyu & ZHAO Feng Research center for Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Geography, beijing Normal University, beijing 100875, china national Satellite meteorological center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Research center for Remote Sensing and GIS Department of Geography Beijing Normal University Beijing China national Satellite meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Vegetation index is a simple, effective and experiential measurement of terrestrial vegetation activity, and plays a very important role in qualitative and quantitative remote sensing. Aiming at shortages of current vegetation indices, and starting from the analysis of vegetation spectral characteristics, we put forward a new vegetation index, the three-band gradient difference vegetation index (TGDVI), and established algorithms to inverse crown cover fraction and leaf area index (LAI) from it. Theoretical analysis and model simulation show that TGDVI has high saturation point and the ability to remove the influence of background to some degree, and the explicit functional relation with crown cover fraction and LAI can be established. Moreover, study shows that TGDVI also has the ability to partly remove the influence of thin cloud. Experiment in the Shunyi District, beijing, china shows that reasonable result can be reached using the vegetation index to retrieve LAI. We also theoretically analyzed the reason why the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) owns the low saturation point, and show that it is determined by the definition of NDVI and the characteristic of vegetation spectra, and is unavoidable to some degree. Meanwhile, through model simulation, we also indicate that the relationship between simple ratio vegetation index (SR) and LAI closes to a piecewise linear one instead of a linear one, which is mainly caused by the influence of background and different change rates of reflectance in red and infrared bands with LAI increasing.

关键词： vegetation index, remote sensing, LAI, crown cover fraction, remote sensing inversion.

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2 1. national meteorological center, beijing 100081,china 2. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china national meteorological center Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2002. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2000, including the 24—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2,BIAN LinGen3 & DAI YongJiu2 1 meteorological Observation center of china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 2 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,beijing Normal University,beijing 100875,china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing 100081,china meteorological Observation center of china meteorological administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis