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On linking climate to chinese dynastic change: Spatial and temporal variations of monsoonal rain

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第1期55卷 77-83页

作者： ZHANG DeEr1, LI Hong-Chun2,3. KU Teh-Lung2,4 & LU LongHua5 1 national climate center,{3., china 2 Department of Earth Sciences & Research center of Ocean Environment and Technology, Cheng-Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan, china 3.School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University of china, Chongqing 400715, china 4 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA 5 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{3., china national climate center Beijing China Department of Earth Sciences & Research center of Ocean Environment and Technology Cheng-Kung University Tainan Taiwan China School of Geographical Sciences Southwest University of China Chongqing China Department of Earth Sciences University of Southern California Los Angeles USA chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

The causal correlation or linkage between the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) intensity and rise/fall of chinese dynasties recently proposed by high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions is examined in detail. Aside from many exceptions to the correlation, both instrumental and historical climate records show strong spatial variations of rainfall on annual-to-decadal scales over eastern{3.. The relationship between rainfall and EAM intensity also exhibits regional disparity. These observations suggest: (1) Tak-ing paleo-proxy records from a single locality in eastern{3. to imply changes in drought/wetness as to affect the cultural and political history of{3. is fraught with uncertainty. (2) On annual-to-decadal scales, the thesis that δ18O in speleothems can be used as a proxy for the EAM strength lacks empirical underpinnings.

关键词：古气候重建东亚季风强降雨时空变化中国东部地区连接 EAM 高分辨率

Evolution of desertification in a two-dimensional energy balance model coupled with thermodynamics and dynamics

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Science china Earth Sciences 2010年第11期53卷 1726-1733页

作者： CHAO JiPing1,2 & LI YaoKun3.4 1national Marine Environmental Forecasting center, beijing 100081,{3. 2First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic administration, Qingdao 266061,{3. 3.tate Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029,{3. 4Graduate University of chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049,{3. national Marine Environmental Forecasting center Beijing China First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The relationship between desert evolution and change in albedo has been investigated quasi-analytically using a zonal mean two-dimensional energy balance model which considers the radiation transmission process due to thermodynamics and bound- ary layer movement caused by kinetics. A climate state including temperature, zonal wind, meridional wind and vertical wind can be simulated according to the current zonal distribution of albedo. Given desert distribution, characterized by the value and distribution of albedo, the response of climate on albedo has been studied to analyze the evolution of desert climate. One significant result is that the simple model can reproduce mean meridional circulation. Another result indicates that climate corresponds to two equilibria. This happens when the junction temperature between vegetation and desert is higher than a certain critical value. As for the first equilibrium, the desert belt is predicted to move southward in the northern hemisphere with the increasing values of albedo, which corresponds to the current trend of climate change. For the second equilibrium, vegetation will expand northward with increasing values of albedo, which would indicate a narrowing of the desert belt. In order to determine if the two equilibria exist, new physical models are needed.

关键词： two-dimensional energy balance model desertification two equilibria

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1996年第2期15卷 193-208页

作者： Xie Simei Zou Bing Wang Yi and Bao Chenglan (national Marine Environment Forecasting center, State oceanic administration,{3., china) national Marine Environment Forecasting center State Oceanic Administration Beijing 100081 China

In this paper, the long-term variation trend of the Antarctic sea ice in 1973.1994 and the inter-decade variation rule of the global sea level are analyzed. It is found that the sea ice area in the Antarctic in the 1980s was significantly less than in the 1970s and the average global sea level height value in the 1980s was also significantly higher than in the 1970s. Connecting variation of both and analyzing their physical mechanism, it indicates that the accumulated sea ice anomaly value in the 1980s less than in the 1970s means a global climate warming, the sea water temperature and air temperature were obviously higher in the 1980s it introduced the long-term accumulated sea ice decreased greatly; a higher sea water temperature introduced sea water volume expanding, and more icebergs transporting from the ice cover in the Antarctic continent to ocean in the warmer year. As a result induced by these multi-causes, the global sea level raised significantly in the 1980s. The global average sea level value in the 1980s, was 22 mm higher than in the 1970s. The sea level raising(SLR) was distributed unevenly. It is especially true in the Pacific Ocean with two expensive we level raising regions in the Northeast Pacific and Southeast Pacific as well as a raising region near the Bering Sea; and with two descent regions in the Northwest and Southwest Pacific. It is considered that this kind of uneven SLR distribution closely relates to the sustained decreasing of the Antarctic sea ice. The higher sea water tem This study was supported both by the national Natural Science Foundation of china under contrast Nod 493.6252 and by the national '85' Plan 'Key Project 903.: 7th *** in the south ocean introduces a rather warmer water temperature of the Peru Cold Current which is a northward branch of the South Oceanic Current along the South American continent, then it is easier to the occurrence of El Nino event. When El Nino event occurs, the prevailed tropical easte

关键词： Antarctic sea ice global sea level long-term variation El Nino event oceanic circulation

Surface deformation at the epicenter of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan M8 Earthquake,at Yingxiu Town of Sichuan Province,china

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Science china(Technological Sciences) 2008年第S2期51卷 154-163页

作者： DONG ShaoPeng,HAN ZhuJun & AN YanFen national center of Seismic Fault Study,Institute of Geology,china Earthquake {3.,beijing 100029,china national center of Seismic Fault Study Institute of Geology China Earthquake Administration Beijing China

Surface deformation,along national Highway 213.at the epicenter of Wenchuan M8 earthquake,at Yingxiu Town of Sichuan Province,china,is surveyed and measured in *** results show two distinct *** is that no horizontal displacement displays,or dextral strike-slip component at the observation point can not be found basically,the other is that uplift amount is 2.72 m,and the short-ening amount is 0.3. m,which reflects thrust shortening deformation is not *** crust uplift amount of 2.71 m is distributed in a belt with width of 60 *** model of lower crustal flow proposed by Royden et al.(1997) about the dynamic process in eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau seems more suitable to explain the seismic surface deformation characteristics at Yingxiu Town,the epicenter of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan M8 Earthquake.

关键词： Wenchuan M8 Earthquake Yingxiu Town surface deformation

CO_2 background concentration in the atmosphere over the chinese mainland

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chinese Science Bulletin 2002年第14期47卷 1217-1220页

作者： WANG Gengchen, WEN Yupu, KONG Qinxin, REN Lixin & WANG MulinInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing, 100029, china Academy of {3. Sciences, china {3. administration, beijing 100086, china Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

Based on the long-term monitoring data on CO2 concentration, variation trend and characteristics of CO2 background concentration in the atmosphere over the chinese mainland are analyzed. Results show that the increasing trend of CO2 background concentration in the atmosphere over the chinese mainland has appeared during the period of 1991-2000. The average annual CO2 growth increment is 1.59μL/L, and the average annual CO2 growth rate is 0.44%. Distinct seasonal variations of CO2 background concentration are observed, and the averaged amplitude of CO2 seasonal variations is 10.3.μL/L. Regional variation characteristics of CO2 background concentration in the atmosphere and possible impact of human activities on these variations over the chinese mainland are discussed as well.

关键词： CO2 background concentration chinese mainland CO2 growth rate CO2 seasonal variation CO2 regional variation CO2 variation trend.

Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第23期48卷 2568-2571页

作者： LIU Shijun, YU Xiaoding & CHEN Yongyi chinese meteorological administration Training Centre, beijing 100081, china Correspondence should be addressed to Liu Shijun (e-mail: liushj@ ***) chinese meteorological administration Training Centre Beijing China

A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly in-variable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycles peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 24 will be in January 2011.

关键词：太阳黑子太阳活动周期周期预测地磁指数

Antarctic sea ice and ENSO event

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1993年第4期12卷 549-561页

作者： Hao Chunjiang, Zhang Lin, Xue Zhenhe and Xie Simei national Research center for Marine Environment Forecasts, State Oceanic administration,{3., china national Research center for Marine Environment Forecasts State Oceanic Administration Beijing 10081 China. China

The characteristic low-frequency oscillation of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of ENSO related regions, Nino 1 + 2, Nino 3. Nino 4 and Nino West, and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is analyzed with the method of maximum entropy spectrum. Antarctic sea ice is divided into 4 regions, i. e. East Antarctic is Region Ⅰ (0°-120° E), the region dominated by Ross Sea ice is Region Ⅱ (120° E-120° W), the region dominated by Ross Sea ice is Region Ⅲ (120° W-0°), and the whole Antarctic sea ice area is Region Ⅳ. Also, the month-to-month correlation series of the sea ice with ENSO from contemporary to 5-years lag is calculated. The optimum correlation period is selected from the series. The characteristics and the rules obtained are as follows.1. There are a common 4-years main period of the SSTA of Ninos 1 + 2,3.and 4, a rather strong 4-years secondary period and a quasi-8-years main period of that of Nino West. There are also 1. 5 and 2 to 3.years secondary periods of that of all 4 Nino regions.2. As another indicator of El Nino, the SOI represents the feature of the atmosphere in low latitude area, having a quasi-5-years main period; it also has secondary periods, 1, 1. 5 and 2 to 3.years, among them, the 2 to 3.years one is prominent.3. There is a close relationship between Antarctic sea ice and ENSO event. In the long-range correlation from contemporary up to 60 months of the SSTA in Ninos 1 + 2,3.and 4 and Antarctic sea ice area index, or the time series of 16 correlation coefficients made of each one of the 4 sea ice regions with that of the 4 Nino regions, there is a prominent common characteristic that all correlations are negative from contemporary to 3.-months lag of the SSTA of the 4 Nino regions behind Antarctic sea ice, the optimum correlation periods with the confidences equal to or more than 5 % , 1 % lagging in 13.19, 24-3. month are the most. The correlations of sea ice in Regions Ⅱ , Ⅲ and W with the SSTA of Ninos 3.and 4 are the strongest.

关键词： Nino Antarctic sea ice and ENSO event SSTA ENSO

The April 14th, 2010 Yushu earthquake, a devastating earthquake with foreshocks

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Science china Earth Sciences 2010年第6期53卷 791-793页

作者： NI SiDao1, WANG WeiTao2 & LI Li3.1 School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of china, Hefei 23.026, china 2 Institute of Geophysics, china Earthquake {3., beijing 100081, china 3.national Earthquake Infrastructure Service, china Earthquake {3., beijing 10003., china School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing China national Earthquake Infrastructure Service China Earthquake Administration Beijing China

In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://***; Mw6.9, http://neic. ***) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, china. More than 2000 lives were lost and over 100000 injured,

关键词： Figure Yushu earthquake a devastating earthquake with foreshocks The April 14th 2010 very than

Assessment of Global Weather Disasters in 2000

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Natural Disaster Reduction in china 2001年第4期10卷 152-160页

作者： LIU Chuanfeng (national climate center,{3., china) national climate center Beijing 100081 China

The global climate in 2000 kept warmer than that in the average year. The strong La Nina weakened abruptly after reaching its second peak value over the central and eastern Pacific region along the equator in January. The event had significant impacts upon the world climate, especially that in the tropical regions. Many areas of the Northern Hemisphere suffered severe cold weather in winter and heat wave in summer. The globe was afflicted with severe high temperature, drought and forest fire, whereas many areas in southern Asia. Western Europe, southern Africa, and northern South America were frequently attacked by Storm rainfall. It is estimated that the global economic loss caused by weather disasters in 2000 was over $ 100 billion with hundreds of millions of people affected.

关键词： global weather disaster severe cold drought flooding