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Prediction method for October 2003.solar storm

science china(Technological sciences) 2006年第5期49卷 629-640页

作者： XIE Yanqiong1, 2, 3. WEI Fengsi1, FENG Xueshang1 & ZHONG Dingkun1, 2 1. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100080, china 2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 10003., china 3. institute of meteorology, pla university of science and technology, nanjing 211101, china State Key Laboratory of Space Weather Center for Space Science Applied Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China Graduate School Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China institute of meteorology PLA University of Science technology Nanjing 211101 China

Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003. this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather ——“observing” and quantitative prediction ——“palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, re- spectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.

关键词： solar storm, interplanetary shock, interplanetary scintillation, two-step method, ISF method.

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STUDIES ON RETRIEVAL OF THE TURBULIVITY OF ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2006年第2期18卷 177-183页

作者： WANG Ting-fang HUANG Si-xun XIANG Jie institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China Center of meteorology Chengdu Air Force Chengdu 610041China Key Laboratory of Meso-Scale Severe Weather/MOE Depariment of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210093 China

The variational adjoint method was applied to retrieving the turbulivity of the atmospheric Ekman boundary layer along with the regularization principle, The validity of the method was verified by using the idealized data, and then the turbulivity profile and the geostrophic wind profile were retrieved through it for real observational wind filed data.

关键词： atmospheric boundary layer turbulivity,Tikhonov regularization principle parameter retrieval

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EXPLICIT SIMULATION ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WINNIE (1997)

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2006年第6期18卷 736-741页

作者： ZHONG Zhong ZHANG Jirl-shan institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China nanjing Hydraulic Research institute Nanjing 210029 China

An explicit simulation of the tropical cyclone Winnie （1997） was conducted by use of a triply-nested 3.D nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5, before and after its landfall. The simulated results show that the model can well reproduce the track of Winnie （1997） with a BOGUS storm-like vortex inserted in the large-scale first-guess field at the initial model time. The mean track error in a 6 h interval is 54.5 km, which is much less than that obtained with the operational prediction. Comparisons between simulation and observation near the landfall place show that the main temporal variation features of sea level pressure and surface wind speed can also be successfully captured. The characteristics of the eyewall, the spiral cloud band and the corresponding precipitation were disclosed, and the applications of the model outputs were also discussed.

关键词： tropical cyclone simulation track intensity,eyewall spiral cloud band storm surge

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A SEMI-CIRCLE THEOREM FOR UNSTABLE PERTURBATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE-SCALE VORTICLES

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2009年第4期21卷 473-481页

作者： HUANG Hong ZHANG Ming XU Ming institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China Shanghai Typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique/CMA Shanghai 200030 China

In this paper, we discusses the spectrum distribution of baroclinic disturbances in tropical cyclone-scale vortices with the assumption that the basic flow does not vary with height. The semi-circle theorem for the unstable perturbation is obtained and the upper bound of growth rate can be estimated. The upper bound of instability growth rate increases with the increase of the maximum basic-state tangential wind speed, angular speed, inertial parameter, absolute vorticity, radial gradient of absolute vorticity and static stability. The upper bound of instability growth rate is greater for vortices of larger horizontal scale and smaller vertical scale and lower wave-number disturbances.

关键词： tropical cyclone-scale vortex spiral bands instability semi-circle theorem

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NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ABOUT GROWTH OF THE ENERGY OF DISTURBANCE IN A BAROCLINIC FLOW

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2008年第4期20卷 499-506页

作者： TENG Jia-jun HUANG Si-xun ZHANG Liang School of science PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China Shanghai institute of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics Shanghai University Shanghai 200072 China institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China

This article is concerned with the growth of energy of disturbances in a baroclinic flow within a finite time period. The implicit difference scheme was applied to the linearized vorticity equation, and the disturbance energy was computed for three kinds of vertical shears. It turns out that all the disturbance energy rapidly increases initially, and during the succeeding period there are several stages of growth and decay of energy of disturbances, and from a certain time on, all the disturbance energy begins to decrease.

关键词： implicit difference scheme vertical shear linearized potential vorticity equation disturbance energy Couette flow

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GENERALIZED VARIATIONAL OPTI MAZATION ANALYSIS FOR2-D FLOW FIELD

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2005年第4期17卷 459-465页

作者： HUANG Si-xun XU Ding-hua LAN Wei-ren TENG Jia-jun institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China LMSWE Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China LMSWE Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China East china technology institute Fuzhou 344000 China institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China

The Variational Optimization Analysis Method （VOAM） for 2-D flow field suggested by Sasaki was reviewed first. It is known that the VOAM can he used efficiently in most cases. However, in the cases where there are high frequency noises in 2-D flow field, it appears to be inefficient. In the present paper, based on Sasaki＇s VOAM, a Generalized Variational Optimization Analysis Method （GVOAM） was proposed with regularization ideas, which could deal well with flow fields containing high frequency noises. A numerical test shows that observational data can be both variationally optimized and filtered, and therefore the GVOAM is an efficient method.

关键词： variational optimization analysis regularization methods generalized variational optimization analysis

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ENVIRONMENTAL AND TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON ATMOSPHERIC INTERNAL SHIP WAVES

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2008年第4期20卷 440-447页

作者： ZANG Zeng-liang PAN Xiao-bin ZHANG Ming Department of Martial meteorology Institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and TechnologyNanjing 211101 China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A theoretical model was used to investigate the influences of environmental and topographic parameters on the atmospheric three-layer internal ship waves. The results show that both the wavelength and the wedge angle decrease with an increase in the Scorer parameter, and the rate of changes in the wavelength and wedge angle are also alike. The results also show that the wedge angle decreases with an increase in the width of mountain, but the wavelength varies little with it. It is suggested that the wedge angle is determined by the ratio of the wavelength to the scale of the mountain. Besides, numerical sensitivity experiments were performed to test the former numerical experiments. The simulated results are consistent with the analytical results.

关键词： Scorer parameter topographic parameter atmospheric internal ship waves numerical simulation

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THEORETICAL ANALYSES AND NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR TWO-DIMENSIONAL WIND RETRIEVALS FROM SINGLE-DOPPLER DATA

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2010年第2期22卷 185-195页

作者： HUANG Si-xun CAO Xiao-qun DU Hua-dong ZHONG Ji-qin institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China National university of Defense Technolog Changsha 410073 China institute of Urban meteorology China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100089 China

Based on variational adjoint methods,theoretical analyses and numerical experiments are performed for retrievals of two-dimensional winds and related parameters from single-Doppler radar data in polar *** the method,the reflectivity conservation equation is used as the governing equation and the mass continuity equation as a weak *** the same time,the stable functional of regularization and background field are also introduced in the cost *** on the ideal experiments with artificial data,real two-dimensional wind fields are retrieved with low-altitude data from the nanjing Doppler Radar Station,and the results are encouraging and promising.

关键词： single-Doppler retrievals adjoint methods regularization methods two-dimensional wind

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Computational properties of a new horizontal staggered grid

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science china Earth sciences 2005年第9期48卷 1559-1568页

作者： LIU YudiState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029,{3. institute of meteorology, pla university of science and technology, nanjing 211101,{3. 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Ph Chinese Academy of Sciences 100029 Beijing China 2. institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology 211101 Nanjing China

This paper presents a new horizontal staggered grid (LE grid), which defines h at a gridpoint, and both u and v at the same mid-gridpoint along the x and y directions. A general method is used to deduce the dispersion relationships of describing inertia gravity waves on LE grid and Arakawa A―E grids, which are then compared with the analytical solution (AS) in re- solved or under-resolved cases, using two-order central difference or four-order compact differ- ence scheme from the frequency and group velocity. Results show that in both resolved and under-resolved cases, no matter whether two-order central difference or four-order compact dif- ference scheme is used, the frequency and group velocity discrete errors on LE grid in describing inertia gravity waves are smaller than those of Arakawa A―E grids. At the same time, it is only on LE or Arakawa grid C that the employment of a compact difference scheme of higher difference precision can improve their accuracy in describing inertia gravity waves. However, as for the other four grids (Arakawa A,B,D and E), when the difference precision increases, the accuracy of simulating inertia gravity waves decreases.

关键词： horizontal staggered grid, inertia gravity wave, LE grid, Arakawa A-E grid, compact difference scheme, central difference.

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NEW WAVE-DEPENDENT FORMULAE FOR SEA SPRAY FLUX AT AIR-SEA INTERFACE

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2009年第4期21卷 573-581页

作者： SHI Jian ZHAO Dong-liang LI Xun-qiang ZHONG Zhong Key Laboratory of Coastal Disaster and Defense Ministry of Education Hohai University Nanjing 210098 China institute of meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China College of Physical and Environment Oceanography Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China

A bubble-derived Sea Spray Generation Function （SSGF） was deduced, which was integrated into the new wave-dependent SSGF. The effect of sea spray feedback was parameterized by the feedback coefficients A and B. The relationship of A（B） and the wind-sea Reynolds number was derived, which shows that the feedback effect of sea spray is decreasing with the wave developing. New sea spray flux formulae, including the new SSGF and new feedback coefficients, were proposed, which can reveal clearly the influence of wave state on sea spray fluxes. Spray fluxes in the Humidity Exchange Over the Sea （HEXOS） experiment were simulated again, and results show that spray momentum flux is small in this experiment, but spray heat flux is large. Comparisons of the sea spray fluxes calculated by two kinds of formulae in different wave states show that previous wave-independent spray flux formulae are the special cases of the presented new wave dependent formulae for sea spray flnx.

关键词： sea sray flux HEXOS wave state Sea Spray Generation Function (SSGF)

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