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Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3.1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, china meteorological administration,{3., china 2 National meteorological Center, china meteorological administration,{3., china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration,{3., china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2 & GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 china meteorological administration training centre, beijing 100081, china 3.Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory, Harbin 15003., china Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china meteorological administration {3. centre Beijing China Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration,{3., china Academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 3. years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23. for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.3. 3. in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 3. years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,china meteorological administration,{3. 100081,china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3.region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in china induced by greenhouse effect

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： Zhao Zongci and Ding YihuiAcademy of meteorological Science,State meteorological administration,{3. 100081,china

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in china .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3.6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in china as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in china due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in china, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3.1 National Climate Center,china meteorological administration,{3. 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,{3. 100029,china 3.National meteorological Center,china meteorological administration,{3. 100081,china National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2 1. National meteorological centre, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china National meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3.4, HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3.1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological administration,{3., china 2 National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100012, china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration,{3., china 4 National Center for Space Weather, china meteorological administration,{3., china Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National Astronomical Observatoires Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003.(28OCT03. respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 3. MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03.event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 3. MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03.event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003. when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 3.5 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03.case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003.captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2,BIAN LinGen3.& DAI YongJiu2 1 meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological {3.,beijing 100081,china 2 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,beijing Normal University,beijing 100875,china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing 100081,china meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological {3. Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis