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Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2 & GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 china {3. administration training centre, Beijing 100081, china 3.Heilongjiang {3. Observatory, Harbin 15003., china 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. china meteorological administration {3. centre Beijing 100081 China 3. Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory Harbin 150030 China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

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Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2 1. National meteorological centre, china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, china National meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

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The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3.1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. china meteorological administration training centre, Beijing {3., china 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10003., china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China china meteorological administration {3. centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indo{3. Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

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Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2 & CHOU Jifan2,3.1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 3. training Center for china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型

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Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 2. training Center of Chinese meteorological {3., Beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China training Center of Chinese meteorological administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

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Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第23期48卷 2568-2571页

作者： LIU Shijun, YU Xiaoding & CHEN Yongyi Chinese meteorological administration training {3., Beijing 100081, china Correspondence should be addressed to Liu Shijun (e-mail: liushj@ ***) Chinese meteorological administration training {3.

A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly in-variable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycles peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 24 will be in January 2011.

关键词：太阳黑子太阳活动周期周期预测地磁指数

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The characteristics of atmospheric CO_2 concentration variation of four national background stations in china

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第11期52卷 1857-1863页

作者： LIU LiXin, ZHOU LingXi, ZHANG XiaoChun, WEN Min, ZHANG Fang, YAO Bo & FANG ShuangXi Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services (CAWAS), Chinese Academy of Meteoro- logical Sciences (CAMS), china meteorological {3. (CMA), Beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services (CAWAS) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Beijing 100081 China

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is an important kind of greenhouse gas which influences global temperature. Its concentration variation could indicate the distribution of human and natural activities in various regions. Through the non-dispersive infrared method, flask sampling of atmospheric CO2 concen- tration was measured weekly at four national background stations including Waliguan, Shangdianzi, Lin’an, and Longfengshan. Based on the data collected from September 2006 to August 2007, along with the Waliguan station’s experience on in situ observational data processing, the selection methods for sampling data through the atmospheric background CO2 concentration analysis were preliminarily discussed. On the basis of this result, the variation features of the four typical regions’ atmospheric background CO2 concentration was analyzed for the first time. The results show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration at Waliguan, Shangdianzi, Lin’an, and Longfengshan is 3.3.5, 3.5.9, 3.7.8, and 3.4.3.ppm, respectively. During the research period, CO2 concentration at the Waliguan station changed slightly. However, the CO2 concentration changed sharply at the Shangdianzi and the Lin’an stations due to the great influence of human activities in the Jingjinji and the Changjiang Delta economic zones, and changed regularly with seasons at Longfengshan station under dual influences of human activities and plant photosynthesis. The results from this study can lay the foundation for more profound studies on atmospheric CO2 concentration level of different areas in china, and could be used to improve the understanding of carbon source and sink distribution.

关键词： atmospheric CO2 flask sampling background data selection CO2 concentration regional difference

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Three-dimensional decomposition method of global atmospheric circulation

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 386-402页

作者： LIU HaiTao1,2,3. HU ShuJuan4, XU Ming5 & CHOU JiFan6,7 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3.Beijing Climate Center, Beijing 100089, china 4 Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 5 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 20003., china 6 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, china 7 china meteorological administration training Center, Beijing 100089, china 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China 3. Beijing Climate Center Beijing 100089 China 4. Department of Mathematics Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 5. Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 China 6. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 7. china meteorological administration {3. Center Beijing 100089 China

By adopting the idea of three-dimensional Walker, Hadley and Rossby stream functions, the global atmospheric circulation can be considered as the sum of three stream functions from a global perspective. Therefore, a m... 详细信息

关键词： three-dimensional decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation generalized Walker Hadley and Rossby stream functions existence and uniqueness vertical motion

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Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第S2期48卷 155-172页

作者： XU Jianming, XU Xiangde, LIU Yu, DING Guoan, CHEN Huailiang, HU Jiangkai, ZHANG Jianchun, WU Hao, LI Weiliang, HE Jinhai, YANG Yuanqin & WANG Jiahe Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, china State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china meteorological Bureau of Henan Province, Institute of meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450000, china National meteorological centre of china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china National meteorological Information centre of china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China meteorological Bureau of Henan Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences Zhengzhou 450000 China National meteorological centre of china meteorological administration Beijing 100081 China National meteorological Information centre of china meteorological administration Beijing 100081 China

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution e

关键词： CMAQ-MOS point-area combination emission source influence emission inventory air quality.

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umerical tests of efficiency of the retrospective time integration scheme in the self-memory model

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2004年第9期 89-92页

作者： GU Xiangqian 1*, YOU Xingtian 2, ZHU He 2 and CAO Hongxing 1(1. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, china 2. {3. Center of china meteorological administration, Beijing 100081, china)

A set of numerical tests was carried out to compare the retrospective time integral scheme in a self memory model, whose dynamic kernel is the barotropical quasi geostrophic model, with the ordinary centered difference scheme in the barotropical quasi geostrophic model. The Rossby Haurwitz wave function was taken as the initial fields for both schemes. The results show that in comparison with the ordinary centered difference scheme, the retrospective time integral scheme reduces by 2 orders of magnitude the forecast error, and the forecast error increases very little with lengthening of the time step. Therefore, the retrospective time integral scheme has advantages of improving the forecast accuracy, extending the predictable duration and reducing the computation amount.

关键词： numerical tests self-memory model retrospective time integral scheme.

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