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Modeling the impact of Australian Plate drift on Southern Hemisphere climate and environment

Chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第14期50卷 1495-1502页

作者： ZHOU Botao1,5, ZHAO Ping2, JIAN Zhimin3.& HE Jinhai4.1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China 2. institute of Climate and Environment, Chinese Academy of Meteoro- logical Sciences, {3. 100081, China 3. Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China 4. Department of {4. Sciences, Nanjing institute of Meteorol- ogy, Nanjing 21004., China 5. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 10003., China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China institute of Climate and Environment Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji University Shanghai 200092 China Department of atmospheric Sciences Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044 China

Using a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model with the present-day and 14.MaB.P. oceanic topogra- phy respectively, two experiments are implemented to inves- tigate the effect of different locations of Australian Plate on the atmospheric circulation in middle-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that when Austra- lian Plate lay south at 14.MaB.P., both anticyclone circula- tions in the subtropical oceans and cyclone circulation around 60°-70°S are strengthened. Subtropical highs and circumpolar low pressure appear stronger, which results in much stronger Antarctic Oscillation and shorter period of Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) at 14.MaB.P. The rainfall and the surface air temperature also change correspondingly. The precipitation decreases around 4.°S and increases around 60°-70°S, and the surface air temperature rises in high latitudes of the South Pacific and descends over the Weddell Sea and its north side. Besides, due to the changes of the temperatures and winds, Antarctic sea ice coverage also changes with its increasing in the Ross Sea and its west re- gions and decreasing in the Weddell Sea.

关键词：半球气候地球环球澳大利亚漂流物海洋地形学

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Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and atmospheric predictability research

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Science China Earth Sciences 2006年第10期49卷 1111-1120页

作者： CHEN Baohua1, LI Jianping1,2 & DING Ruiqiang2 1. College of atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,{3., China 1. College of atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12 days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (3.°S―60°S, 3.°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3.4.d. In addition, predictab

关键词： nonlinear, local, Lyapunov exponent, atmospheric predictability, maximal prediction time.

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Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1040-1044页

作者： LU Riyu institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, China institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China

Interdecadal and interannual timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadal timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannual timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannual variation of North China rainfall. There is a linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season.

关键词：线性关系中国北部降雨量大气环流

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Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1024-1030页

作者： BUEH Cholaw LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences China

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

关键词：模拟亚洲东方季风气侯变化大气循环模型

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Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2 & CHOU Jifan2,3.1. LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China 2. Department of atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, China 3. Training Center for China Meteorological Administration, {3. 100081, China Department of atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型

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Control of atmospheric CO_2 concentrations by 2050: A calculation on the emission rights of different countries

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Science China Earth Sciences 2009年第10期52卷 1447-1469页

作者： DING ZhongLi1, DUAN XiaoNan2, GE QuanSheng3.& ZHANG ZhiQiang4.1 institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China 2 The General Office of Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100864. China 3.institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100101, China 4.The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library, the Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, Lanzhou 73.000, China institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China The General Office of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100864 China institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy

This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions, a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries, to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. That a system rooted in "cumulative emissions per capita," the best conception of the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle affirmed by the Kyoto Protocol according to fundamental standards of fairness and justice, was demonstrated. Based on calculations of various countries' cumulative emissions per capita, estimates of their cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005, and their annual emissions allowances into the future (2006―2050), a 4.0 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration target was set. According to the following four objective indicators―total emissions allowance from 1900 to 2050, actual emissions from 1900 to 2005, emissions levels in 2005, and the average growth rate of emissions from 1996 to 2005―all countries and regions whose population was more than 3.0000 in 2005 were divided into four main groups: countries with emissions deficits, countries and regions needing to reduce their gross emissions, countries and regions needing to reduce their emissions growth rates, and countries that can maintain the current emissions growth rates. Based on this proposal, most G8 countries by 2005 had already expended their 2050 emissions allowances. The accu-mulated financial value based on emissions has reached more than 5.5 trillion US dollars (20 dollars per ton of CO2). Even if these countries could achieve their ambitious emissions reduction targets in the future, their per capita emissions from 2006 to 2050 would still be much higher than those of developing coun

关键词： international negotiations on climate change cumulative emissions per capita emission allowance

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PERIODIC AND NONPERIODIC OSCILLATIONS OF NONLINEAR atmospheric WAVES FORCED BY PERIODIC THERMAL FORCING——SYSTEM WITHOUT DISSIPATION

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Science in China,Ser.B 1986年第10期29卷 1084-1095页

作者：金飞飞朱抱真 institute of atmospheric physics Academia Sinica beijing

In this paper, a baroclinic stable system with periodic forcing is used to discuss the dynamics of wave amplitude near the resonant forcing *** the first part, the linear resonant condition and weakly nonlinear resonant problem are analysed and two distinct periodic solutions with larger and smaller amplitudes are solved respectively for system without dissipation. When external forcing varies between the existence domains for these two kinds of periodic solution, nonperiodic oscillation appears, i.e. the so-called 'chaos' phenomenon.

关键词： PERIODIC AND NONPERIODIC OSCILLATIONS OF NONLINEAR atmospheric WAVES FORCED BY PERIODIC THERMAL FORCING SYSTEM WITHOUT DISSIPATION

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North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1251-1257页

作者： FAN Ke institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China Department of atmospheric Science, Yun-nan University, Kunming 650091, China 1. institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2004. with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.4. and -0.4. respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

关键词： typhoon sea ice cover North Pacific teleconnection

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Empirical-Statistical Methodology and Methods for Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Variability of Different Temporal Scales

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Advances in atmospheric Sciences 2001年第5期18卷 844-863页

作者： Vladimir A. Lobanov State Hydrological institute, A MFONP, St. Petersburg, Russia LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, beijing 10002.. State Hydrological institute AM FONP St. Petersburg Russia LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing China

Main problem of modern climatology is to assess the present as well as future climate change, For this aim two approaches are used: physic-mathematic modeling on the basis of GCMs and palaeoclimatic analogues. The third approach is based on the empirical-statistical methodology and is developed in this paper. This approach allows to decide two main problems: to give a real assessment of climate changes by observed data for climate monitoring and extrapolation of obtained climate tendencies to the nearest future (10-15 years) and give the empirical basis for further development of physic-mathematical models. The basic theory and methodology of empirical-statistic approach have been developed as well as a common model for description of space-time climate variations taking into account the processes of different time scales. The way of decreasing of the present and future uncertainty is suggested as the extraction of long-term climate changes components in the particular time series and spatial generalization of the same climate tendencies in the obtained homogeneous regions. Algorithm and methods for realization of empirical-statistic methodology have been developed along with methods for generalization of intraannual fluctuations, methods for extraction of homogeneous components of different time scales (interannual, decadal, century), methodology and methods for spatial generalization and modeling, methods for extrapolation on the basis of two main kinds of time models: stochastic and deterministic-stochastic. Some applications of developed methodology and methods are given for the longest time series of temperature and precipitation over the world and for spatial generalization over the European area.

关键词： climate change climate variability empirical-statistical approach spatial-temporal modeling inhomogeneous non-stationary

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Evolution of desertification in a two-dimensional energy balance model coupled with thermodynamics and dynamics

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Science China Earth Sciences 2010年第11期53卷 1726-1733页

作者： CHAO JiPing1,2 & LI YaoKun3.4.1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, beijing 100081, China 2First institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China 3.tate Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for {3. Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,{4., China 4.raduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10004., China 1. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China2. First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China4. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The relationship between desert evolution and change in albedo has been investigated quasi-analytically using a zonal mean two-dimensional energy balance model which considers the radiation transmission process due to thermodynamics and bound- ary layer movement caused by kinetics. A climate state including temperature, zonal wind, meridional wind and vertical wind can be simulated according to the current zonal distribution of albedo. Given desert distribution, characterized by the value and distribution of albedo, the response of climate on albedo has been studied to analyze the evolution of desert climate. One significant result is that the simple model can reproduce mean meridional circulation. Another result indicates that climate corresponds to two equilibria. This happens when the junction temperature between vegetation and desert is higher than a certain critical value. As for the first equilibrium, the desert belt is predicted to move southward in the northern hemisphere with the increasing values of albedo, which corresponds to the current trend of climate change. For the second equilibrium, vegetation will expand northward with increasing values of albedo, which would indicate a narrowing of the desert belt. In order to determine if the two equilibria exist, new physical models are needed.

关键词： two-dimensional energy balance model desertification two equilibria

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