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Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, China 2. training Center of Chinese {2. {2.,{3., China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China training Center of Chinese meteorological{2. Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2.& GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, {2. 10002., China 2.China {2. {3. training centre, beijing 100081, China 3.Heilongjiang {2. Observatory, Harbin 15003., China 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. China meteorological administration{2. {3. Beijing 100081 China 3. Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory Harbin 150030 China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast China via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern China. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern China. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2.4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3.1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China 3. China meteorological {2. {3. centre, beijing 100081, China 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10003., China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China China meteorological administration{2. {3. Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2.d pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

umerical tests of efficiency of the retrospective time integration scheme in the self-memory model

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2004年第9期 89-92页

作者： GU Xiangqian 1*, YOU Xingtian 2. ZHU He 2.and CAO Hongxing 1(1. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, China 2.{2. Center of China meteorological administration, beijing 100081, China)

A set of numerical tests was carried out to compare the retrospective time integral scheme in a self memory model, whose dynamic kernel is the barotropical quasi geostrophic model, with the ordinary centered difference scheme in the barotropical quasi geostrophic model. The Rossby Haurwitz wave function was taken as the initial fields for both schemes. The results show that in comparison with the ordinary centered difference scheme, the retrospective time integral scheme reduces by 2.orders of magnitude the forecast error, and the forecast error increases very little with lengthening of the time step. Therefore, the retrospective time integral scheme has advantages of improving the forecast accuracy, extending the predictable duration and reducing the computation amount.

关键词： numerical tests self-memory model retrospective time integral scheme.

Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第23期48卷 2568-2571页

作者： LIU Shijun, YU Xiaoding & CHEN Yongyi Chinese meteorological administration{2. {3., beijing 100081, China Correspondence should be addressed to Liu Shijun (e-mail: liushj@ ***) Chinese meteorological administration{2. {3.

A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly in-variable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycles peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 2. will be in January 2.11.

关键词：太阳黑子太阳活动周期周期预测地磁指数

Three-dimensional decomposition method of global atmospheric circulation

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 386-402页

作者： LIU HaiTao1,2.3. HU ShuJuan4, XU Ming5 & CHOU JiFan6,7 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., China 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, China 3.beijing Climate Center, beijing 100089, China 4 Department of Mathematics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, China 5 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 2.003., China 6 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73.000, China 7 China meteorological administration training Center, beijing 100089, China 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China 3. beijing Climate Center Beijing 100089 China 4. Department of Mathematics Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 5. Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 China 6. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 7. China meteorological administration{2. Center Beijing 100089 China

By adopting the idea of three-dimensional Walker, Hadley and Rossby stream functions, the global atmospheric circulation can be considered as the sum of three stream functions from a global perspective. Therefore, a m... 详细信息

关键词： three-dimensional decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation generalized Walker Hadley and Rossby stream functions existence and uniqueness vertical motion

Research on the dry intrusion accompanying the low vortex precipitation

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第9期50卷 1396-1408页

作者： YAO XiuPing1,2.3. WU GuoXiong1, ZHAO BingKe4, YU YuBin3.& YANG GuiMing2.5 1 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, {2. 10002., China 2.Institute of Heavy Rain, China meteorological {2., Wuhan 43.074, China 3.China meteorological {2. training Center, beijing 100081, China 4 Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China meteorological {2., Shanghai 2.003., China 5 National meteorological Center of the China meteorological {2., beijing 100081, China 1. LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Institute of Heavy Rain China Meteorological Administration Wuhan 430074 China 3. China meteorological {2. {2. Center Beijing 10081 China 4. Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China meteorological administration Shanghai 200030 China 5. National meteorological Center of the China meteorological{2. Beijing 100081 China

By employing the 6.7μm satellite vapor cloud images and NCEP/NCAR 1°×1° reanalysis datasets, the characteristics and mechanism of the dry intrusion, as well as its impacts on the low vortex precipita- tion at the Meiyu front are explored in this paper. It is found that the formation,development and main- tenance of the low vortex precipitation at the Meiyu front are closely related to the evolution of the dry intrusion. The dry intrusion is characterized by high potential vorticity (PV), low humidity and cold air. The dry intrusion exhibits as an obvious dark zone on vapor cloud images, an area in which atmos- pheric relative humidity is lower than 60%. However, the features of the dry intrusion on the vapor im- ages are clearer than that of the humidity field, for the former is the digital vapor cloud images with high temporal and spatial resolution, and it can be used to explore the finer characteristics of the develop- ment, evolution and supplement of the intrusion during the development of the low vortex. The dry intrusion impacts accompanying the low vortex precipitation at the Meiyu front come from all levels of the troposphere, with the strongest intrusion located at the upper troposphere. The dry and cold air intrudes the vicinity of the low vortex from the upper isentropic surface to the lower one, slanting eastward from lower to higher level. The low vortex precipitation region is usually situated in front of the dry intrusion where the relative humidity gradient is higher. The research also reveals that the mechanism of the dry intrusion is that the high potential vorticity descends from the upper troposphere to the lower level, therefore, the dry intrusion can be used as an important index of the high PV forcing. To the west of the low vortex precipitation, the upper level northerlies descend across the isentropic surface, then the dry cold advection can trigger the instable development in the mid-low troposphere. The dry intrusion enhances the low vort

关键词： Meiyu front, low vortex precipitation, dry intrusion, mechanisim, vapor image, potential vorticity, relative humidity

卫星遥感地理信息与数值模拟应用于风能资源综合评估新尝试

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太阳能学报 2003年第4期24卷 536-539页

作者：杨振斌薛桁王茂新袁春红罗林明北京大学物理学院北京100871 中国气象科学研究院北京100081 中国气象局培训中心北京100081

该文提出一套综合的应用于风能资源评估的分析系统。应用卫星遥感反演出地形、地貌特征,融合地理信息数字高程数据,获得三维TM图像,在三维地形上进行风场的数值模拟和分析,得到该区域风能分布图,用以进行风电场宏观选址;根据宏观选址结... 详细信息

该文提出一套综合的应用于风能资源评估的分析系统。应用卫星遥感反演出地形、地貌特征,融合地理信息数字高程数据,获得三维TM图像,在三维地形上进行风场的数值模拟和分析,得到该区域风能分布图,用以进行风电场宏观选址;根据宏观选址结果,通过在备选风电场进行风实测,应用研制的风能资源分析软件对该实测资料进行进一步地可行性分析,为风电场的开发作好前期的准备工作。

关键词：风电场选址卫星遥感地理信息风能资源分析

Reconstruction of hydrological changes based on tree-ring data of the Haba River, northwestern China

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Journal of Arid Land 2018年第1期10卷 53-67页

作者： zhang tongwen yuan yujiang chen feng yu shulong zhang ruibo qin li jiang shengxia institute of desert meteorology china meteorological administrationUrumqi 830002China key laboratory of tree-ring physical and chemical research of china meteorological administration Urumqi 830002China key laboratory of tree-ring ecology of xinjiang uygur autonomous region Urumqi 830002China

Reconstructing the hydrological change based on dendrohydrological data has important implications for understanding the dynamic distribution and evolution pattern of a given river. The widespread, long-living coniferous forests on the Altay Mountains provide a good example for carrying out the dendrohydrological studies. In this study, a regional composite tree-ring width chronology developed by Lariat sibirica Ledeb. and Picea obovata Ledeb. was used to reconstruct a 3.1-year annual （from preceding July to succeeding June） streamflow for the Haba River, which originates in the southern Altay Mountains, Xinjiang, China. Results indicated that the reconstructed streamflow series and the observations were fitting well, and explained 47.5% of the variation in the observed streamflow of 1957-2.08. Moreover, floods and droughts in 1949-2.00 were precisely captured by the streamflow reconstruction. Based on the frequencies of the wettest/driest years and decades, we identified the 19th century as the century with the largest occurrence of hydrological fluctuations for the last 3.0 years. After applying a 2.-year moving average, we found five wet （172.-1758, 1780-1810, 182.-1853. 193.-1967, and 1986-2.04） and four dry （1759-1779, 1811-182., 1854-193., and 1968-1985） periods in the streamflow reconstruction. Furthermore, four periods （1770-1796, 1816-183., 1884-1949, and 1973.1997） identified by the streamflow series had an obvious increasing trend. The increasing trend of streamflow since the 1970s was the biggest in the last 3.0 years and coincided with the recent warming-wetting trend in northwestern China. A significant correlation between streamflow and precipitation in the Altay Mountains indicated that the streamflow reconstruction contained not only local, but also broad-scale, hydro-climatic signals. The 2.-year, 12.year, and 2.2.4.5-year cycles of the reconstruction revealed that the streamflow variability of the Haba River may be influenced by solar activity and

关键词： Larzx sibiffca Ledeb. Picea obovata Ledeb. streamflow reconstruction tree-ring width Altay Mountains