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An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2.1. national Meteorological center, {2.,china 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, {2., china 1. national Meteorological center 100081 Beijing China 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 100081 Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2.02. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2.00, including the 2.—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

A preliminary study on seismic design criteria of offshore platforms in Bohai Sea of china

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2010年第2期9卷 223-231页

作者： Peng Yanju1,Lu Yuejun1,Yan Jiaquan2.Tang Rongyu1,Wang Junqin3 and Li Jiagang3 1. Institute of Crustal Dynamics,china Earthquake administration,{2. 100085,china 2. Institute of Geophysics,china Earthquake administration,beijing 100081,china 3. {2. Research center of china national Offshore Oil Corp.,{2. 10002.,china Institute of Crustal Dynamics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100085 China

This paper analyzes the seismicity in Bohai Sea,introducing a shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms located in the Bohai Sea,a statistical analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method,a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed,and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and the ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese seismic design code for buildings,it is proposed that the probability level for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake have a return period of 2.0 and 1000 - 2.00 years,respectively. The validity of these proposed values is discussed. Finally,the PGAs corresponding to these two probability levels are calculated for different sub-regions of the Bohai Sea.

关键词： fixed offshore platform seismic design level seismic design objective return period Bohai Sea

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3 1 national Climate center,{2. Meteorological administration,beijing 100081,{2. 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,{2. 3 national Meteorological center,{2. Meteorological administration,beijing 100081,{2. national Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2.1. national Meteorological Centre, china Meteorological {2., beijing 100081, china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china national Meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

Real-World Treatment Adherence to Smoking Cessation Medications and Association with Treatment Outcome—2. centers,china,2.17–2.2.

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china CDC weekly 2024年第22期6卷 522-529,I0001-I0003页

作者： Anqi Cheng Zhao Liu Xinmei Zhou Zheng Su Dan Xiao Chen Wang the china national Tobacco Cessation Cohort Study(CNTCCS)Study Group Department of Tobacco Control and Prevention of Respiratory Disease Center of Respiratory MedicineChina-Japan Friendship Hospital/WHO Collaborating Center for Tobacco Cessation and Respiratory Diseases Prevention/National Center for Respiratory Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases/Institute of Respiratory MedicineChinese Academy of Medical SciencesBeijingChina Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine Center of Respiratory MedicineChina-Japan Friendship Hospital/WHO Collaborating Center for Tobacco Cessation and Respiratory Diseases Prevention/China National Center for Respiratory Medicine/China National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory DiseasesBeijingChina Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College BeijingChina 不详

What is already known about this topic?Medication non-adherence significantly impedes smoking cessation *** effective smoking cessation medications are accessible in china,realworld adherence and its correlation with treatment outcomes remain largely *** is added by this report?From December 2.17 to January 2.2.,1,12. participants were recruited from 2. centers in all seven geographical regions of *** revealed that only 38.2.of smokers adhered to the prescribed 12.week smoking cessation treatment and those with a higher education level were more likely to be *** addition,smokers with good adherence were more likely to successfully quit *** are the implications for public health practice?The data obtained could enhance our understanding of smoking cessation practices in *** adherence is a crucial strategy to enhance the effectiveness of smoking cessation treatments and management provided to smokers.

关键词： china smoke likely

Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1021-1035页

作者： LIU YunYun1,2.3 & DING YiHui2.1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 2.{2. Climate center, beijing 100081, china 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China 2. national Climate center Beijing 100081 China 3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Indian and Chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern china. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South china Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion

关键词： Indian summer monsoon (ISM) the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley teleconnection mode

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3 & ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 3. national Climate center, Chinese Meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China 3. national Climate center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

The coupling instability of Rossby and topographic Rossby waves in the equatorial area

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第10期48卷 1792-1801页

作者： CHAO Jiping1,2. LIU Lin1,3 & YU Weidong1 1. Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic administration, Qingdao 2.6061, china 2. {2. Research center for Marine Environmental Forecasts, State Oceanic administration, beijing 100081, china 3. Ocean University of china, Qingdao 2.6003, china Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling State Oceanic administration Qingdao china national Research center for Marine Environmental Forecasts State Oceanic {2. beijing china Ocean University of china Qingdao china

In case of considering the fact that the tropical ocean thermocline or the lower at-mosphere height field has the meridional variation, the topographic Rossby wave will be excited. Also the background geostrophic current emerges. Under such conditions, the topographic Rossby wave can interact with the classical Rossby wave at some parameter band and thus brings a new kind of instability, which may be of potential application in understanding some phenomena of the ENSO cycle.

关键词： thermocline variation, equatorial jet, Rossby wave, topographic Rossby wave, coupling instability

The upper mantle structure of the Tibetan Plateau and its implication for the continent-continent collision

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第8期48卷 1158-1164页

作者： WU Qingju1, ZENG Rongsheng1 & ZHAO Wenjin2.1. Institute of Geophysics, china Earthquake administration, {2., china 2. Institute of Geology, china Academy of Geological Sciences, beijing 100037, china 1. Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration 100081 Beijing China 2. Institute of Geology China Academy of Geological Sciences 100037 Beijing China

The upper mantle structures of Himalayas-Tibet have been obtained from the mi-gration of receiver functions of the teleseismic events recorded by INDEPTH-III. The result of migration imaging shows a dipping interface subducting northward from the depth of 100 km to the 410-km discontinuity underneath southern Tibet. It indicates that the lithospheric mantle of the Indian continent had been detached from the crust and deeply subducted to the upper mantle of Eurasia during the Indo-Eurasian collision. This kind of continent-continent collision process is fundamentally different from the oceanic collision.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau, receiver function, upper mantle structures, Indo-Eurasian collision, dipping interface.