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POST-DISASTER SURVEY OF TYPHOON MEGI IN WENZHOU CITY

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2017年第1期6卷 34-39页

作者： YI LU HUI YU QIUZHEN YANG MING XU FENG ZHENG JING ZHU Shanghai Typhoon institute of china meteorological administration Wenzhou meteorological Bureau Taishun meteorological Bureau Shanghai Typhoon institute of china meteorological administration Wenzhou meteorological Bureau Taishun meteorological Bureau

This paper reports the post-disaster results due to Typhoon Megi. The survey was conducted by a joint survey team of Shanghai Typhoon institute in 14 December 2016, with the support of Wenzhou meteorological Bureau and some meteorological departments in disaster areas. The survey results show that Typhoon Megi brought torrential rain and heavy rainstorm to the southern of Wenzhou City. The precipitation characters of Typhoon Megi are strong intensity, high accumulation, long duration and broken historical record. Typhoon winds affected wide,with large peripheral wind. According to the needs of defense and emergency rescue of Typhoon Megi,Wenzhou meteorological departments made every effort, including closely monitor, strengthening consultation, roll forecast, timely warning, active reporting, and targeted service. In order to provide scientific reference for government decision, the service of weather protection and disaster relief were done well. The results of typhoon forecast shows as follows.(1) The track, landing location and time of typhoon forecast were basically consistent with the actual situation.(2) The wind forecast was close to the actual.(3) The forecasted area precipitation was slightly lower, and the extreme value of process precipitation was too low. While the prediction of Dongtou Island Station was too high, this investigation shows that we are still insufficient in forecasting precipitation grades of typhoons breaking historical records, especially for precipitation quantification and meticulous prediction. In this case, more attention should be paid as below. 1) Effect of topography on precipitation enhancement. 2) Summary of similar cases. 3) Improve the defense ability and residents' awareness of risk. 4)Combine modem methods of early warning information with traditional methods. 5) Quantitative, fixed-pointed and precision forecast. 6) Rapid access of referent information to forecasters, 7) Modern monitoring technology(3 S, unmanned aerial ve

关键词： Typhoon Megi Wenzhou City post-disaster survey

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PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2016

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2017年第1期6卷 13-25页

作者： GUOMIN CHEN XIPING ZHANG PEIYAN CHEN HUI YU RIJIN WAN Shanghai Typhoon institute, china meteorological administration Shanghai Typhoon institute China Meteorological Administration

The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a "Track Error Rose",was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015.

关键词： tropical cyclone track intensity forecast verification

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Formation of horizontal convective rolls in urban areas

Formation of horizontal convective rolls in urban areas

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作者： Shiguang Miao~(a,b,*),Fei Chen~b a institute of Urban meteorology,china meteorological administration,No.55 Beiwaxili Road,Haidian District,Beijing 100089,china b National Center for Atmospheric Research,Boulder,CO 80301,USA

The formation of horizontal convective rolls(HCRs) in urban areas is investigated in this paper using observations and fine-scale numerical *** streets organized parallel to the mean boundary-layer wind(a manifestation of HCRs) are seen in the Fengyun-2C satellite imagery around local noon in *** vertical velocity and horizontal wind fields from an urban wind profiler suggest that the time scale for alternating updraft and downdraft in the boundary layer is about 30 min,and the length of the updraft/downdraft is about 9 km. Numerical simulations show that most HCRs occur in the urban areas with -z/L<25(z:the boundary-layer depth,L:the Monin-Obukhov length).Sensitivity tests reveal that HCRs are common in urban boundary layers,while rural areas are more conducive to forming cellular convection;the aspect ratio of HCRs in urban areas is smaller than the typical value over natural landscapes.

关键词： Horizontal convective rolls Urban areas Urban boundary layer

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Changes in Wind Speed and Wind Speed Extremes in Beijing during 1960-2008 Based on Homogenized Observations

Changes in Wind Speed and Wind Speed Extremes in Beijing dur...

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International Workshop on Urban Weather and Climate:Observation and Modeling

作者： LI Zhen~(1.2),YAN Zhongwei~(*1),TU Kai~1,LIU Weidong~3,and WANG Yingchun~4 ~1Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment in Temperate East Asia,institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,china ~2Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,china ~3institute of Urban meteorology,china meteorological administration,Beijing 100089 ~4Beijing meteorological Bureau,Beijing 100089,china

Daily observations of wind speed at 12 stations in the Greater Beijing Area during 1960-2008 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization *** linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal(winter,spring,summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.26,-0.39,-0.30,-0.12 and -0.22 m s 10yr,*** showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed,followed by spring,autumn and *** annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes(days) also decreased,more prominently for winter than for the other *** declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and *** maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang(CY),a station within the central business district(CBD) of Beijing with the highest level of *** declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center,except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun(MY).The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s(10 yr) during 1960-2008,accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining *** annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around Beijing,based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset,also exhibited decreasing trends,coincident with the results from site observations.A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992-2001 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on Beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two *** is suggested that the bulk of wind in Beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization,while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

关键词： homogenization daily mean wind speed urbanization mean sea level pressure geostrophic wind East Asian monsoon

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Sap-flow measurement and scale transferring from sample trees to entire forest stand of Populus euphratica in desert riparian forest in extreme arid region

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2009年第3期1卷 258-266页

作者： JianHua Si 1, Qi Feng 1, HaiYang Xi 1, ZongQiang Chang 1, YongHong Su 1, Kai Zhang 1,2 1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, china. 2. institute of Arid meteorology, china meteorological administration, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, china. Chinese Acad Sci Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst 320 Donggang West Rd Lanzhou 730000 Gansu Peoples R China china Meteorol Adm Inst Arid Meteorol Lanzhou 730020 Gansu Peoples R China

Understanding how the transpiration of this vegetation type responds to environmental stress is important for determining the wa-ter-balance dynamics of the riparian ecosystem threatened by groundwater depletion. Transpiration and sap flow were measured using the heat-pulse technique. The results were then projected up to the stand level to investigate the stand’s water-use in relation to climate forcing in the desert riparian forest in an extreme arid region. This study took place from April through October 2003 and from May through October 2004. The experimental site was selected in the Populus euphratica Forest Reserve (101o10' E, 41o59' N) in Ejina county, in the lower Heihe River basin, china. The sapwood area was used as a scalar to extrapolate the stand-water consumption from the whole trees’ water consumption measured by the heat-pulse velocity recorder (HPVR). Scale transferring from a series of individual trees to a stand was done according to the existing natural variations between trees under given environmental conditions. The application of the biometric parameters available from individual tree and stand levels was proved suitable for this purpose. A significant correlation between the sapwood area and tree diameter at breast height (DBH) was found. The prediction model is well fitted by the power model. On the basis of the prediction model, the sapwood area can be cal-culated by DBH. The sap-flow density can then be used to extrapolate the stand-water use by means of a series of mathematical models.

关键词： sap flow heat-pulse technique sapwood area scale transferring extreme arid region Populus euphratica

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Operational retrieval of Asian sand and dust storm from FY-2C geostationary meteorological satellite and its application to real time forecast in Asia

Operational retrieval of Asian sand and dust storm from FY-2...

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“2010年北京气象学会中青年优秀论文评选”学术研讨会

作者： X.Q.Hu~(1,3),N.M.Lu~1,T.Niu~2,and P.Zhang~1 1 Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites(KLRCV),National Satellite meteorological Center,china meteorological administration(NSMC/CMA),Beijing 100081,china 2 Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services(CAWAS),Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,china meteorological administration(CMA),Beijing 100081,china 3 institute of remote sensing applications,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,china

This paper describes an operational retrieval algorithm for the sand/dust storm(SDS) from FY-2C/SVISSR (Stretched-Visible and Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer) developed at the National Satellite meteorological Center (NSMC) of *** algorithm,called Dust Retrieval Algorithm based on Geostationary Imager(DRAGI), is based on the optical and radiative physical properties of SDS in mid-infrared and thermal infrared spectral regions as well as the observation of all bands in the geostationary imager, which include the Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) in split window channels,Infrared Difference Dust Index(IDDI) and the ratio of middle infrared reflectance to visible *** also combines the visible and water vapor bands observation of the geostationary imager to identify the dust clouds from the surface targets and meteorological *** output product is validated by and related to other dust aerosol observations such as the synoptic weather reports,surface visibility,aerosol optical depth(AOD) and ground-based PM *** the SDS-IDD product and a data assimilation scheme,the dust forecast model CUACE/Dust achieved a substantial improvement to the SDS predictions in spring 2006.

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A semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian global nonhydrostatic model and the polar discretization scheme

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第12期50卷 1885-1891页

作者： YANG XueSheng1,CHEN JiaBin2,HU JiangLin1,CHEN DeHui1,SHEN XueShun1,ZHANG HongLiang1 1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,china 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,institute of Atmospheric Physics,Beijing 100029,china State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing China

The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System(GRAPES) is a newly developed global non-hydrostatic numerical prediction model,which will become the next generation medium-range opera-tional model at china meteorological administration(CMA).The dynamic framework of GRAPES is featuring with fully compressible equations,nonhydrostatic or hydrostatic optionally,two-level time semi-Lagrangian and semi-implicit time integration,Charney-Phillips vertical staggering,and complex three-dimensional pre-conditioned Helmholtz solver,*** the singularity of horizontal momentum equations at the poles,the polar discretization schemes are described,which include adoption of Arakawa C horizontal grid with ν at poles,incorporation of polar filtering to maintain the computational stability,the correction to Helmholtz equation near the poles,as well as the treatment of semi-Lagrangian interpolation to improve the departure point accuracy,*** balanced flow tests validate the rationality of the treatment of semi-Lagrangian departure point calculation and the polar discretization during long time *** and Suarez tests show that the conservation proper-ties of GRAPES model are quite good.

关键词： nonhydrostatic, global model, semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian, polar discretization, conservation

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GRASSLAND desertIFICATION AND MICROmeteorological CHANGES IN NAIMAN

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中国沙漠 1998年第4期 65-71页

作者： LI Sheng gong\ ZHAO Ha lin\ HE Zong ying CHANG Xue li\ Yoshinobu HAROZONO ① (institute of desert Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, china) (① National institute of Agro Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba 305, Japan)

１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩｎｆｌｕｅｎｃｅｏｆｌａｎｄｄｅｓｅｒｔｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｎｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｃｈａｎｇｅｈａｓｉｎｔｈｅｐａｓｔｆｅｗｄｅｃａｄｅｓｂｅｃｏｍｅｔｈｅｒｅｓｅａ... 详细信息

１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＩｎｆｌｕｅｎｃｅｏｆｌａｎｄｄｅｓｅｒｔｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｎｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｃｈａｎｇｅｈａｓｉｎｔｈｅｐａｓｔｆｅｗｄｅｃａｄｅｓｂｅｃｏｍｅｔｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｆｏｃｕｓｏｆｍａｎｙｓｃｈ...

关键词： Grassland\ Grazing intensity\ Micrometeorology\ desertification

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Cloud Type Climatology over the Tibetan Plateau:A Comparison of ISCCP and MODIS/TERRA Measurements with Surface Observations

Cloud Type Climatology over the Tibetan Plateau:A Comparison...

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中国气象学会2006年年会“气候变化及其机理和模拟”分会场

作者： YUEQING LI1,2, XIAODONG LIU3 AND BAODE CHEN4 1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Resource, Environment and Earth Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, china 2institute of Plateau meteorology, china meteorological administration, Chengdu, china 3institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, china 4 Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California, USA

Area averaged seasonal climatology of high, middle and low clouds over the Tibetan Plateau was obtained from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D2 and the Moderate Resolutio

关键词： Cloud Type Tibetan Plateau ISCCP MODIS/TERRA

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VERIFICATION OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN TYPHOON SOUDELOR(1513) WITH THE MODEL EVALUATION TOOLS(MET)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2016年第3期5卷 85-91页

作者： Sangil Pak Hakil Ri Central meteorological Forecasting institute,State Hydro-meteorological administration Central meteorological Forecasting institute State Hydro-meteorological Administration

The extreme rainfall forecast performances of both of ECMWF-IFS and ECMWF-EPS with MET version 5.1 were examined in landing Typhoon Soudelor(1513) with 60 h lead times. In this study the programs for converting ECMWF's forecast data(both of ECMWF-IFS and ECMWF-EPS) format into that needed by MET were developed. Also, during landfall, the observed maximum 6-hour accumulated rainfall was investigated, and then the verification of extreme rainfall in Soudelor was carried out. Results showed that while traditional verification gives relatively low scores, by the method for object-based diagnostic evaluation(MODE) the significant rainy areas were well predicted in this case study.

关键词： extreme rainfall Model Evaluation Tools

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