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The deformation pattern and fault rate in the Tianshan Mountains inferred from GPS observations

Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第8期51卷 1064-1080页

作者： YANG ShaoMin1,2, LI Jie1,3 & WANG Qi2,1 1 Research Center of Space Science and Technology, china University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, china 2 Institute of Seismology, china earthquake administration, Wuhan 430071, china 3 earthquake administration of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011, china Research Center of Space Science and Technology China University of Geosciences Wuhan China Institute of Seismology China Earthquake Administration Wuhan China earthquake administration of xinjiang uygur autonomous region Urumqi China

Based on GPS measurements conducted from 1992 to 2006, we present the current crustal movement velocity field for approximately 400 sites in the Tianshan Mountains and their adjacent areas, and estimate slip rates on the major faults using a 2-D elastic dislocation model. Our studies show slip rates within the range of 1―4 mm/a on the NW-SE trending strike-slip faults (such as Talas-Fergana fault) in the Tianshan Mountains. We also found the slip rates on the approximately WE-SN trending gently-dipping detachment fault vary from 10―13 mm/a for the southwest Tianshan Mountains to 2―5 mm/a for the eastern Tianshan Mountains, and to 6―12 mm/a for the Kyrgrz Tianshan. The GPS velocity field reveals that the total convergence is not uniformly distributed across the Tianshan Mountains, with 80%―90% of the N-S shortening absorbed along the southern and northern edges, and relatively little deformation accommodated within the interior. This first-order feature of strain pattern is explained best by underthrusting of adjacent blocks beneath the Tianshan Mountains along a basal detachment fault. We found the occurrence of historical M7―8 earthquakes somewhere in the locked ramp that connects the creeping and locking segments of the detachment, thereby resulting in elastic strain concentration and accumulation around it. The elastic strain confined in the upper crustal layer above the detachment ultimately releases through infrequent great earthquakes in the Tianshan Mountains, resulting in considerable folding and faulting at their margins. The Tianshan Mountains propagated outward and rose progressively as a wedge-shaped block.

关键词： Tianshan Mountains GPS slip rates tectonic deformation

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Theoretical critical value curve and driving force formation of ecological migration in the arid land

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第A1期51卷 196-203页

作者： ZHU Zi’an & ZHANG Xiaolei xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, urumqi 830011, china The Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, china xinjiang uygur autonomous region Development and Reform Commission, urumqi 830002, china xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China The Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China xinjiang uygur autonomous region Development and Reform Commission Urumqi China

干旱陆地的易碎的 eco 环境的特征确定它骚乱抵抗的能力更低。在干旱陆地的自然荒芜的绿洲在在宽 Gobi 沙漠散布的马赛克补丁。人口分发是极大地依赖于水资源。人口与驱散的分发，简单生产和生活被描绘风格，和贫穷和遥远。生态的迁居... 详细信息

干旱陆地的易碎的 eco 环境的特征确定它骚乱抵抗的能力更低。在干旱陆地的自然荒芜的绿洲在在宽 Gobi 沙漠散布的马赛克补丁。人口分发是极大地依赖于水资源。人口与驱散的分发，简单生产和生活被描绘风格，和贫穷和遥远。生态的迁居被执行的原因躺在生态的问题。生态的降级是生态的迁居的主要驱动力。然后，驱动力的力量取决于生态的降级的度。因此，是否执行生态的移植取决于生态的降级的程度。理论上，为在干旱陆地的精明的生态的移植的批评的值曲线通过生态学的相对问题的全面研究被提出，经济等等，在干旱陆地与生态的移植经验结合了，并且基于干旱环境的特征。在这篇文章，与这条曲线，理论研究和生态的迁居的一些实践从不做作的行为和生态的移植的驱动力形成的政府行为的观点被做了。它分析活跃驱动力(因素) 和否定力量(因素) ，并且指出预定和在干旱陆地实现生态的迁居的步骤。理论曲线表达某些创见和适用性，它为为实现生态的迁居工程评估生态的降级和理论底的度提供一个量的方法。

关键词：生态迁移临界值驱动力贫瘠地

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Seismic Risk region Determination by Information Entropy

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earthquake Research in china 1996年第2期10卷 81-90页

作者： Zhou Shiyong and Zhu LingrenSeismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011, china

During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and experiments. The information entropy concerning the dimension of the order in seismic distribution is systematically defined from the point of modern statistical physics in this paper. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with a strong shock occurrence time and the distribution of information with a strong shock occurrence place were approached through seismic data from the Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi, and Manasi regions in xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often noticeably drops in seismic region, and generally much lower in the epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.

关键词： Information entropy Small earthquake activity Seismic risk region.

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Calculation of the h-value during Superposing of Strong earthquake Sequences and Its Application in earthquake Prediction

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earthquake Research in china 1999年第3期13卷 38-48页

作者： Yang Xin and Yu XingbaoSeismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011, china

For a strong earthquake swarm, the key to estimate the frequency attenuation coefficient h-value of ensuing strong earthquake sequence accurately lies in quantitative calculation and subtraction of the foreshock sequence *** the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm sequence as an example, we analyzed and compared the h-values when foreshock effect has been subtracted or not subtracted. The result shows that the boundary between the two great difference is the M56.6 earthquake on April 11,1997. The h-values with foreshock effect subtracted are all Iess than 1 before the moderately strong earthquakes, but after the earthquake, the h-values are all greater than 1. On the contrary, the h-values with foreshock effect do not show this kind of turning *** test results shows that quantitatively subtracting foreshock effect is beneficial to the judgement of the trend of the activity of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm. This provides the basis for accurately grasping sequence development

关键词： earthquake swarm Sequence analysis earthquake frequency aftershock frequency attenuation h-value Jiashi.

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Research of the Modern Tectonic Stress Field and Seismicity Characteristics on the Northeastern Side of Pamirs

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earthquake Research in china 2000年第4期14卷 57-65页

作者： Gao Guoying and Wen HepingSeismologieal Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011 , china Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region Urumqi 830011 China

According to the earthquake focal mechanism solutions of 55 moderately strong earthquakes onthe northeastern side of Pamirs,the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes ith M_s≥6.0 since this century and the characteristics of hypocenter depth distribution of earthquakeswith M_s≥3.0 since 1980 in this region,the article discusses the relation between regional tee-tonic stress fields and strong earthquake *** result shows that the hypocenter disloca-tion is mostly strike-dip,partly dip-slip,and the direction of the principal compressional stressis nearly *** distributive characteristics of strong shock activity is obvious,with the gen-eral trend that the west is strong and the east is weak,which can be divided into three imephases,and each with relative principal active region The depth near Pamirs aren reaches200km,shallower obviously when externding to NE,less than or equal to 40km near the Kalpinblock,and the article discusses the result.

关键词： Tectonic stress field Seismicity Principal compressional stress

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Determination of regions With Medium-Term Risk of Strong earthquakes: Pre-warning Active Faults

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earthquake Research in china 1996年第1期10卷 104-109页

作者： Ge Shumo and Wei RuopingSeismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region,urumqi 830011,china

To predict the area with frequent seismicity and the future risky region of strong earthquakes on the time scale of one or several years is a very important and urgent problem that needs to be *** the basis of active fault research,pre-warning active faults that have been active recently will be discussed; then the medium-term risky region of strong earthquakes will be delimited around the pre-warning active *** method proves to be effective.

关键词： Seismic risk region Medium-term prediction Active fault

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A priliminary study on the sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1998年第6期11卷 16-23页

作者： XIN YANG GUO YING GAO Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, rümqi 830011, china 1. Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region 830011 ürümqi China

The sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi, xinjiang strong earthquake swarm are analyzed and studied in this paper. The result shows that before the M S=6.6 earthquake, value h of sequence frequency attenuation coefficient was less than 1, then value h was more than 1. Before occurrence of M S6.0 earthquakes the energy is released either in a continuously strengthened way or a sharply strengthened way, and before M S5.0 earthquakes the sequence frequency shows calm. The study on the focal mechanism solution of the strong earthquake swarm shows that the source faults are mainly in a right lateral, strike slip way and the faults have characteristics of tensor shear.

关键词： earthquake swarm sequence characteristics focal mechanism solution focal displacement feature Jiashi

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The Strong earthquake Swarm in Jiashi, xinjiang in 1997 and Three Successful Predictions of Impending earthquakes

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earthquake Research in china 1998年第4期12卷 14-29页

作者： Zhu Lingren, Su Naiqin, and Yang MalingSeismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011, china

A strong earthquake swarm including 7 earthquakes with M≥6.0 occurred in Jiashi, xinjiang region from January to April, 1997, which is rare for intraplate seismicity. They occurred in Tarim Basin which is relatively stable, has no discovered surface rupture and where the deep-seated tectonics are not clear. The Seismological Bureau of xinjiang region has made three successful impending predictions for the strong aftershocks and succeeding earthquakes in Jiashi. The injuries and deaths of people have been greatly reduced because of effective measures taken by the local government, and the social and economic results are remarkable. The article introduces a summary of the strong earthquake swarm and the main processes of the prediction, sums up the scientific bases of an impending prediction, and shows that the occurrence of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm revealed some important scientific problems which should be studied further. The practice of the Jiashi earthquake prediction indicates again

关键词： Jiashi earthquake Prediction.

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Study on Self-Affine Fractal and Multi-Fractal Features of Geomorphic System in the Tianshan Area of xinjiang region, china

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earthquake Research in china 2003年第3期17卷 256-264页

作者： Li Meng, Zhu Lingren and Long HaiyingSeismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, urumqi 830011, china Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region Urumqi 830011 China

In this paper, we use the standard deviation method and the fixed mass method to study the self affine fractal and multi fractal features along two topographic profiles across different tectonic geomorphic elements in the Tianshan area of xinjiang region, china. The results show that in the studied scaling range, the two profiles display different scaling fractal features, and the form and value range of multi fractal spectra D q also show different characteristics. The study suggests that the landforms are not completely random, but are deterministically random. The fractal dimension values in different scaling ranges express the mode, intensity and spatial dimension of the endogenic and exogenic processes. Meanwhile, a boundary point between the macroscopic and microscopic scales of geomorphic process is suggested to be about 5 km. These results are of significance in quantitative study of geomorphic dynamics.

关键词： Tianshan Geomorphology Self affine fractal Multiple fractal Dynamics

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Ecological response to the climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in xinjiang

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第6期48卷 765-777页

作者： CHEN Xi1, LUO Geping1, XIA Jun2, ZHOU Kefa1, LOU Shaoping3 & YE Minquan4 1. xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, urumqi 830011, china 2. Institute of Geographical and Resources Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, china 3. urumqi Meteorological-satellite Land Station, urumqi 830011, china 4. Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region, Urümqi 830011, china Correspondence should be addressed to Chen Xi xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China Institute of Geographical and Resources Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China urumqi Meteorological-satellite Land Station Urumqi China Seismological Bureau of xinjiang uygur autonomous region Urümqi China

The Tianshan Mountains is a high and huge mountain body lying across the central part of xinjiang, china, and is also the main area where the runoff forms in xinjiang. In this paper, a set of RS-based study methods is put forward for deriving the information about the natural change of the ecology in arid areas, and the relationship between the climate change trend and the corresponding ecological response on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is analyzed from the scales of the land cover ecosystems and landscapes based on the observed data of climate, hydrology, modern glaciers and lakes on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years and the satellite RS data since recent 10 years by using the RS and GIS technologies. The results are as follows: (1) The overall trend of climate change on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains since recent 40 years is that both air temperature and precipitation are increased, especially the increase amplitudes of air tempera-ture, precipitation and annual runoff volume are high since the decade of the 1990s; (2) the in-tegrated indexes of the vegetation in all the geographical divisions on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are obviously increased since recent 10 years, especially in the artificial oases and the foothill belts, such a change trend is advantageous for improving the vegetation ecology; and (3) the vegetation ecology in the arid areas is extremely sensitive to the climate change, the vegetation coverage and the biomass on the northern slope of the Tianshan Moun-tains are continuously increased because of the climate change since recent 10 years, their in-crease amplitudes in the plains and during the late stage are obviously higher than that in the mountainous regions and during the early stage.

关键词： north slope of the Tianshan Mountains, climate change, hydrological change, natural change of ecology,RS and GIS, vegetation index.

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