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Establishment of Statistical Model for Precipitation Prediction in the Flood Season in china

Meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第3期2卷 1-3页

作者： CHENG Zhi1,2 1.college of atmospheric sciences,lanzhou university,lanzhou 730000,china 2.Key Laboratory for Climate-Environment in East Asian Region,Institute of atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of sciences,Beijing 100029,china

[Objective] The research aimed to establish the regression model which was used to predict the precipitation in the flood season in china.[Method] Based on statistical model,North Atlantic oscillation index and the sea surface temperature index in development and declining stages of ENSO were used to predict East Asian summer monsoon *** the stations were divided into 16 zones,the same factors were used to establish the regression model predicting the station precipitation in the flood season in ***,it was compared with the model that predicted firstly the monsoon index and estimated the precipitation.[Result] The prediction results of summer precipitation during 2005-2009 by every model were *** was found that the model that the factor predicted indirectly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the station ***,the model that the factor predicted directly the regional precipitation was better than that predicted indirectly the regional *** prediction score P of optimum model that three factors predicted directly the regional precipitation reached averagely 74.2,and the anomaly correlation coefficient ACC was averagely *** from the comparison situation of positive and negative zone distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage between the predicted and observed values in 5 years,the prediction effects in the south and east of Northeast china,some areas in the south of Yangtze River,the coast of South china and most areas of Xinjiang were *** predicted positive/negative distribution of precipitation anomaly percentage tallied with that of observation.[Conclusion] The model could predict well summer precipitation in china.

关键词： East Asian monsoon index Linear regression Summer precipitation ENSO North Atlantic oscillation index china

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On the interannual variation in spring atmospheric inter-hemispheric oscillation linked to synchronous climate in china

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Progress in Natural science:Materials International 2009年第9期19卷 1125-1131页

作者： Chuhan Lu, Zhaoyong Guan * Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and college of atmospheric sciences, Nanjing university of Information science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, china Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and college of atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Based on NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data and surface observations of Chinese stations, inter-hemispheric oscillations (IHO) of spring atmospheric mass on an interannual basis in conjunction with the linkage to the synchronous climate over china are studied. Results suggest that the spring IHO exhibits a significant seesaw pattern for air mass at bi-hemispheric mid-high latitudes, with a consistent vertical circulation structure. The EOF decomposition of zonally mean surface pressures without signals of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) indicates that the EOF1 IHO feature is remarkable, with the corresponding time coeficients correlated with the spring IHO index (IIHO) at 0.93; the spring IHO bears a close relation to the synchronous climate in china, showing the surface pressure, temperature and relative humidity over the country to be in good correlation with IIHO; the spring duststorms in Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have bearing on IHO. Positive-phase IIHO promotes the strengthening of the Siberian high, during which zonal winds between 60°E and 150°W show a longitudinal teleconnection structure extending from the Arctic to Antarctica, leading to positive westerly wind anomalies over Asia, affecting the spring climate of china.

关键词： Air mass Inter-hemispheric oscillation (IHO) Spring climate china

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Local and non-local sources of airborne particulate pollution at Beijing——The ratio of Mg/Al as an element tracer for estimating the contributions of mineral aerosols from outside Beijing

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science china Chemistry 2005年第3期48卷 253-264页

作者： HAN Lihui1, ZHUANG Guoshun1,2,3, SUN Yele1 & WANG Zifa3 1. The Center for atmospheric Environmental Study, Department of Chemistry, Beijing Normal university, Beijing 100875, china 2. Center for atmospheric Chemistry Study, Department of Environmental science & Engineering, Fudan university, Shanghai 200433, china 3. LAPC/NZC, Institute of atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, china The Center for atmospheric Environmental Study Department of Chemistry Beijing Normal University Beijing China Center for atmospheric Chemistry Study Department of Environmental Science & Engineering Fudan University Shanghai China Institute of atmospheric Physics CAS LAPC/NZC Beijing China

A new element tracer technique has firstly been established to estimate the contri-butions of mineral aerosols from both inside and outside Beijing. The ratio of Mg/Al in aerosol is a feasible element tracer to distinguish between the sources of inside and outside Beijing. Mineral aerosol, inorganic pollution aerosol mainly as sulfate and nitrate, and organic aerosol are the major components of airborne particulates in Beijing, of which mineral aerosol accounted for 32%―67% of total suspended particles （TSP）, 10%―70% of fine particles （PM2.5）, and as high as 74% and 90% of TSP and PM2.5, respectively, in dust storm. The sources from outside Beijing contributed 62% （38%―86%） of the total mineral aerosols in TSP, 69% （52%―90%） in PM10, and 76% （59%―93%） in PM2.5 in spring, and 69% （52%―83%）, 79% （52%―93%）, and 45% （7%―79%） in TSP, PM10, and PM2.5, respectively, in winter, while only20% in summer and autumn. The sources from outside Beijing contributed as high as 97% during dust storm and were the dominant source of airborne particulates in Beijing. The contributions from outside Bei-jing in spring and winter are higher than those in summer, indicating clearly that it was related to the various meteorological factors.

关键词： mineral aerosol local sources non-local sources dust storm re-suspended dust element tracer technique.

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Using lightning locating system based on time-of-arrival technique to study three-dimensional lightning discharge processes

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science china Earth sciences 2010年第4期53卷 591-602页

作者： ZHANG GuangShu1,WANG YanHui1,QIE XiuShu2,ZHANG Tong1,ZHAO YuXiang1,3,LI YaJun1 & CAO DongJie11 Laboratory for Climate Environment and Disasters of Western china,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of sciences,lanzhou 730000,china 2 Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation(LAGEO),Institute of atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of sciences,Beijing 100029,china 3 Department of Physics,Tianshui Normal college,Tianshui 741001,china Laboratory for Climate Environment and Disasters of Western china Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China Laboratory for Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of Physics Tianshui Normal College Tianshui China

A time-of-arrival(TOA) system based on GPS technology for locating VHF radiation sources from lightning has been developed and used in observation sites in the northern Shandong Province,*** 3D images of the lightning progression have been obtained successfully for the first time in *** 3D-channel evolutions of typical negative CG,positive CG and IC lightning flashes have been discussed together with the data of fast electric field *** was found that significant differences existed between the negative and positive CG lightning flashes in terms of the initiation and propagation of the radiation *** preliminary breakdown of a negative CG lightning flash propagated at a speed about 5.2×104 m/*** stepped leader of negative CG lightning flashes was trigged by negative initial ***,it propagated downward at a speed of 1.3×105 m/*** initial process of the positive CG lightning flashes was also a propagation process of negative *** streamers propagated dominantly horizontally in the positive charge region and accumulated positive charges at the origin of the lightning,and as a consequence,initiated downward positive streamers.A new type of lightning discharge that was triggered by a narrow bipolar pulse(NBP) is discussed in this *** NBP was originated at altitude of about 10.5 km in the upper positive charge *** a distinct difference from normal IC flash,its channels extended horizontally all around and produced a lot of radiation *** source power of the NBP could approach 16.7 kW,which is much greater than that of normal lightning discharge ranging between 100 mW and 500 *** 3D propagation of this new type of lightning discharge was observed and obtained for the first time in *** possible initiation mechanism of this new type of light-ning is discussed here.

关键词： time-of-arrival(TOA) technique three dimensional lightning locating system discharge process narrow bipolar pulse new-type of IC lightning

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A one-dimensional heat transfer model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and modeling of snow temperatures at Dome A, the summit of Antarctic Plateau

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science china Earth sciences 2010年第5期53卷 763-772页

A vertical one-dimensional numerical model for heat transferring within the near-surface snow layer of the Antarctic Ice Sheet was developed based on simplified parameterizations of associated physical processes for the atmosphere, radiation, and snow/ice systems. Using the meteorological data of an automatic weather station (AWS) at Dome A (80°22′S, 70°22′E), we applied the model to simulate the seasonal temperature variation within a depth of 20 m. Comparison of modeled results with observed snow temperatures at 4 measurement depths (0.1, 1, 3, 10 m) shows good agreement and consistent seasonal variations. The model results reveal the vertical temperature structure within the near-surface snow layer and its seasonal variance with more details than those by limited measurements. Analyses on the model outputs of the surface energy fluxes show that: 1) the surface energy balance at Dome A is characterized by the compensation between negative net radiation and the positive sensible fluxes, and 2) the sensible heat is on average transported from the atmosphere to the snow, and has an evident increase in spring. The results are considered well representative for the highest interior Antarctic Plateau.

关键词： Antarctic Ice Sheet near-surface layer energy transfer numerical model

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Interhemispheric atmospheric mass oscillation and its relation to interannual variations of the Asian monsoon in boreal summer

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science china Earth sciences 2010年第9期53卷 1343-1350页

作者： LU ChuHan, GUAN ZhaoYong & CAI JiaXi Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and college of atmospheric sciences, Nanjing university of Information science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, china Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education and college of atmospheric sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and precipitation records of Chinese stations, we have investigated the relationship of interhemispheric oscillation of air mass (IHO) with global lower-level circulation and monsoon anomalies in boreal summer. Our results show that the summer IHO explains a greater portion of variance in the abnormal distribution of atmospheric mass over 30°S-60°N as well as the Antarctic. The IHO strongly correlates to the variations of sea level pressure (SLP) in these regions. It is shown that IHO has some influences on both atmospheric mass transports and water vapor fluxes over 30°S-60°N in association with three anomalous cyclonic circulations over land areas of the eastern hemisphere, which is in close relation to the changes in summer monsoon intensity in eastern Asia and western Africa. Composites of summer rainfall anomalies in china for high and low IHO-index years indicate that the eastern Asian summer monsoon is more intense, with positive precipitation anomaly centers in northern and northeastern parts of china, as opposed to the negative center over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in stronger IHO years. In weak IHO years, a feeble summer monsoon appears in eastern Asia, leading to positive center of precipitation anomalies displaced into the MLRYR. Furthermore, a teleconnection in wind fields between the western African and eastern Asian monsoon regions was observed in the middle and higher troposphere in the scenario of IHO. The anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulations along the path of this Africa-East Asia teleconnection were found to be just over the diabatic heating (cooling) centers, suggesting that diabatic forcings are responsible for the formation of this Africa-East Asia teleconnection.

关键词： interhemispheric oscillation Asian monsoon precipitation china boreal summer

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Elemental composition of aerosols collected in the glacier area on Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibetan Plateau, during summer monsoon season

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Chinese science Bulletin 2007年第24期52卷 3436-3442页

作者： LI ChaoLiu1,2, KANG ShiChang1,3 & CONG ZhiYuan1,2 1 Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, china 2 Graduate university of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100039, china 3 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric sciences, CAS, lanzhou 730000, china Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS Beijing 100085 China university of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric sciences CAS Lanzhou 730000 China

In order to investigate the elemental composition in atmospheric aerosols and its sources in the glacier area over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), seven totally suspended particle samples were collected continuously at the col of the Zhadang glacier (30°28′N,90°39′E,5800 m a.s.l.), Nyainqêntanglha Range, southern TP, from June to October 2006. Twenty-seven elements (Li, Be, B, Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Fe, Mn, Zn, Ga, As, Rb, Sr, Y, Cd, Cs, Ba, Tl, Pb, Bi, Th, U) were analyzed by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). The result indicates that the concentrations of most elements (especially crustal elements) are lower than values at the Nam Co Station during the same period of 2005, and also much lower than other sites in the TP such as Wudaoliang and Waliguan. This suggests that elemental compositions of aerosols in the Zhadang glacier area may represent the background levels of the middle/upper troposphere over the TP. Crustal enrichment factors (EFs) reveal that several elements (e.g. B, Zn, As, Cd, Pb and Bi) may have anthropogenic sources. The southern TP is mainly influenced by the summer Indian monsoon during the sampling period. Backward air mass trajectory analysis suggests that air masses in the region may originate from South Asia. Therefore, anthropogenic pollutants from South Asia may be transported by the summer Indian monsoon to the region which clearly affects the atmospheric environment in the southern TP during the summer monsoon season.

关键词：元素组成浮质冰河西藏夏季

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Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

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Chinese Physics B 2016年第1期25卷 831-837页

作者：侯威颜鹏程李淑萍涂刚胡经国 National Climate Center Beijing 100081China college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Jilin Meteorological science Institute Changchun 130062China Department of Physics Yangzhou university Yangzhou 225002China

By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern china. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern china is multi-fractal and long- range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

关键词： multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis return intervals drought risk

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Computational properties of a new horizontal staggered grid

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science china Earth sciences 2005年第9期48卷 1559-1568页

作者： LIU YudiState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, china Institute of Meteorology, PLA university of science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Ph Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing China

This paper presents a new horizontal staggered grid (LE grid), which defines h at a gridpoint, and both u and v at the same mid-gridpoint along the x and y directions. A general method is used to deduce the dispersion relationships of describing inertia gravity waves on LE grid and Arakawa A―E grids, which are then compared with the analytical solution (AS) in re- solved or under-resolved cases, using two-order central difference or four-order compact differ- ence scheme from the frequency and group velocity. Results show that in both resolved and under-resolved cases, no matter whether two-order central difference or four-order compact dif- ference scheme is used, the frequency and group velocity discrete errors on LE grid in describing inertia gravity waves are smaller than those of Arakawa A―E grids. At the same time, it is only on LE or Arakawa grid C that the employment of a compact difference scheme of higher difference precision can improve their accuracy in describing inertia gravity waves. However, as for the other four grids (Arakawa A,B,D and E), when the difference precision increases, the accuracy of simulating inertia gravity waves decreases.

关键词： horizontal staggered grid, inertia gravity wave, LE grid, Arakawa A-E grid, compact difference scheme, central difference.

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The relationship between spatial extent and duration of severe droughts in china over the last 50 years

The relationship between spatial extent and duration of seve...

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2010 Second IITA International Conference on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IITA-GRS 2010)

作者： ZHANG Da-quan college of atmospheric sciences lanzhou university lanzhou china 730000FENG Guo-lin Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center china Meteorological Administration Beijing china 100081

Correlation between spatial extent and duration of severe droughts process and its statistical law is analyzed using Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） through a newly developed system of drought process monitoring. Results indicate that during the period from late 1990s to early 2000s,the percentage of severe drought （PDSI＜-3.0） in china is unprecedented since 1960 under the background of global warming and the variation of the distributions of droughts coverage areas in different seasons is uneven. The distribution of spatial extent and durations of severe droughts follows a power-law,e.g. the spatial-temporal characteristics of severe droughts is independent to their scaling,namely,being scale free. In general the area of severe droughts is correlated closely with its duration,while the deviations of the linear fit from its correlation is also high.

关键词： drought duration distribution power-law

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