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Prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North China

Science China earth sciences 2008年第5期51卷 709-720页

作者： LANG XianMei Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction, institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, China Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently.

关键词： spring dust weather frequency prediction model iap9l-agcm hindcast experiment real-time prediction

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The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2,4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3 1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China 3. China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China 4. Graduate school of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100039, China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate school of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indochina Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2nd pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.

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Eclogites in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau and their geodynamic implications

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第15期54卷 2556-2567页

作者： ZHANG KaiJun1,2 & TANG XianChun2,3 1 Department of earth sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 2 Guangzhou institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, China Department of earth sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Guangzhou institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou 510640 China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Eclogites have been recently reported in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau, including in the central Qiangtang metamorphic belt, in the Basu metamorphic massif of the eastern Bangong-Nujiang suture zone, and at Songdo and Pengco in the eastern Lhasa terrane. Some typical ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic phenomena, e.g., garnet exsolution from clinopyroxene, were documented in the Basu and Pengco eclogites. The UHP metamorphism in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau marked by these eclogites generally took place in the Early Mesozoic. Along with exhumation of these eclogites, (post-) collision-related magmatism extensively occurred around the central Qiangtang belt, the eastern Ban-gong-Nujiang suture zone, and the eastern Lhasa terrane. The occurrence of these Early Mesozoic ec-logites manifests an out-of-sequence evolution of the Tethys, and they could be a product of diachro-nous collision between the eastern Qiangtang terrane and the irregular continental margin of the united western Qiangtang-Lhasa plate, along the linked eastern Bangong-Nujiang-central Qiangtang zone. The collision-related magmatic rocks could have been originated from lithospheric thickening, melting, or detachment due to the collision. The presence of UHP metamorphic rocks in central Qiangtang and Basu implies likely continental deep-subduction, and the denudation of these two metamorphic zones could have served as the source of the Triassic turbidites in the Songpan-garzê complex and the Ju-rassic turbidites in the western Bangong-Nujiang zone, respectively. However, studies of the eclogites in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau just began, and many principal aspects still remain to be explored, such as their distributions, typical lithologies and minerals, temperature-pressure conditions, timing of formation and exhumation, protoliths and tectonic setting, and relationship with the evolution of the Tethys and large-scale basins in Tibet.

关键词：地球动力学意义青藏高原榴辉岩

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A primary study of the correlation between the net air-sea heat flux and the interannual variation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone track and intensity

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2011年第6期30卷 27-35页

作者： WU Liang WEN Zhiping HUANG Ronghui Center for Monsoon and Environment Research/Department of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis is carried out to reveal the relationship between the interannual variation of track and intensity of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones （WNPTCs） in the tropical cyclone （TC） active season （July–November） and the global net air-sea heat flux （Q net ） in the preceding season （April–June）. For this purpose, a tropical cyclone track and intensity function （TIF） is defined by a combination of accumulated cyclone energy （ACE） index and a cyclone track density function. The SVD analysis reveals that the first mode is responsible for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the tropical central Pacific and the increased activity of western North Pacific （WNP） TIF, the second mode for the positive correlation between the upward heat flux in the North Indian Ocean and the northeastward track shift of WNPTCs and the third mode for the negative correlation between the upward heat flux in mid-latitude central Pacific and the northwest displacement of the WNP TC-active center. This suggests that Q net anomalies in some key regions have a substantial remote impact on the WNP TC activity.

关键词： tropical cyclone western North Pacific the net air-sea heat flux (Q net ) interannual variation

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Prediction of Debris-flow Danger Area by Combining Hydrological and Inundation Simulation Methods

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Journal of Mountain Science 2011年第1期8卷 1-9页

作者： CUI Peng Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and earth Surface Process Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 China Graduate school of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2oo8. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction. The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction. The rain- flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper, the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method, and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS. The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then, the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation. Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 24 Sep. 2oo8 as example, the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-, with error of 4.15% compared to the measured values. The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2, vs. the measured area of 144,097 m2, in error of 81.75%. The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m, consistent with the real maximum depth between lO and 15 m according to the field survey. The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration. The present methodology can be applied to predict debrisflow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.

关键词： Debris flow Arc-SCS model Inundation simulation Risk analysis Wenchuan earthquake

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A one-dimensional heat transfer model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and modeling of snow temperatures at Dome A, the summit of Antarctic Plateau

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Science China earth sciences 2010年第5期53卷 763-772页

作者： CHEN BaiLian1,3, ZHANG RenHe2, SUN ShuFen1, BIAN LinGen2, XIAO CunDe4,2 & ZHANG TingJun5 1 institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences, Beijing 100081, China 3 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, China 4 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research institute, Chinese Academy of sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China 5 The National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, usa 1. institute of atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China4. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou 730000 China5. The National Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado Boulder CO 80309-0449 USA

A vertical one-dimensional numerical model for heat transferring within the near-surface snow layer of the Antarctic Ice Sheet was developed based on simplified parameterizations of associated physical processes for the atmosphere, radiation, and snow/ice systems. Using the meteorological data of an automatic weather station (AWS) at Dome A (80°22′S, 70°22′E), we applied the model to simulate the seasonal temperature variation within a depth of 20 m. Comparison of modeled results with observed snow temperatures at 4 measurement depths (0.1, 1, 3, 10 m) shows good agreement and consistent seasonal variations. The model results reveal the vertical temperature structure within the near-surface snow layer and its seasonal variance with more details than those by limited measurements. Analyses on the model outputs of the surface energy fluxes show that: 1) the surface energy balance at Dome A is characterized by the compensation between negative net radiation and the positive sensible fluxes, and 2) the sensible heat is on average transported from the atmosphere to the snow, and has an evident increase in spring. The results are considered well representative for the highest interior Antarctic Plateau.

关键词： Antarctic Ice Sheet near-surface layer energy transfer numerical model

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Variation of the Fe/Mn ratio of ferromanganese crusts from the Central North Pacific: implication for paleoclimate changes

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2005年第6期15卷 530-537页

作者： LU Zunli1**, LING Hongfei1*, ZHOU Feng1, JIANG Shaoyong1, CHEN Xiaoming1 and ZHOU Huaiyang2(1. State Key Laboratory for Mineral Deposits Research, Department of earth sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 2. Guangzhou institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China)Department of earth & Environmental Science, University of Rochester State Key Laboratory for Mineral Deposits Research Department of Earth Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Department of earth & Environmental Science University of Rochester Guangzhou institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou 510640 China

Contents of Fe, Mn and other elements in four ferromanganese crusts recovered from the central North Pacific are analyzed at high depth-resolution by electron microprobe for reconstructing factors controlling their deposition. Manganese (IV) in hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts is mainly supplied as colloidal precipitates from the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ), which concentrates high amounts of dissolved Mn (II). The iron is derived from carbonate dissolution and silicate particles of eolian dust. An increase in paleoproductivity during cooler climate would potentially lead to a decrease in Mn deposition due to enlargement of the OMZ which has a “temporary storage” effect for Mn. On the other hand, not affected by the OMZ, the iron entering the Fe-Mn crust would likely increase with the eolian dust input and surface productivity at glacial stages. As a result, the increasing Fe/Mn ratio should indicate a cooling climate. This is supported by the following observations. In the profile of the past 1 Ma, the variations of Fe/Mn ratio coincide with benthic oxygen isotope fluctuation in glacial-interglacial cycles. Three episodes with high Fe/Mn ratios, approximately at 2.6, 1.8 and 0.8 Ma, are detected within the past 3 Ma and coincide with major climate transitions and cooling events. The secular evolution pattern of Fe/Mn ratio in the Cenozoic is similar to the Pb isotope evolution which is mainly controlled by eolian dust and related to climate. The Fe/Mn evolution pattern is also broadly consistent with the global deep-sea oxygen isotope records. Therefore, Fe/Mn ratio recorded in the ferromanganese crusts may be a new proxy for climate change.

关键词： Fe/Mn ratio ferromanganese crust central North Pacific paleoclimate.

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Evolution of desertification in a two-dimensional energy balance model coupled with thermodynamics and dynamics

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Science China earth sciences 2010年第11期53卷 1726-1733页

作者： CHAO JiPing1,2 & LI YaoKun3,4 1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China 2First institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China 3State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, China 4Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, China 1. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China2. First Institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China4. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

The relationship between desert evolution and change in albedo has been investigated quasi-analytically using a zonal mean two-dimensional energy balance model which considers the radiation transmission process due to thermodynamics and bound- ary layer movement caused by kinetics. A climate state including temperature, zonal wind, meridional wind and vertical wind can be simulated according to the current zonal distribution of albedo. Given desert distribution, characterized by the value and distribution of albedo, the response of climate on albedo has been studied to analyze the evolution of desert climate. One significant result is that the simple model can reproduce mean meridional circulation. Another result indicates that climate corresponds to two equilibria. This happens when the junction temperature between vegetation and desert is higher than a certain critical value. As for the first equilibrium, the desert belt is predicted to move southward in the northern hemisphere with the increasing values of albedo, which corresponds to the current trend of climate change. For the second equilibrium, vegetation will expand northward with increasing values of albedo, which would indicate a narrowing of the desert belt. In order to determine if the two equilibria exist, new physical models are needed.

关键词： two-dimensional energy balance model desertification two equilibria

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Operator constraint principle for simplifying atmospheric dynamical equations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第12期46卷 1053-1056页

作者： LI Jianping & CHOU Jifan1. National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University

Based on the qualitative theory of atmospheric dynamical equations, a new method for simplifying equations, the operator constraint principle, is presented. The general rule of the method and its mathematical strictness are discussed. Moreover, the way that how to use the method to simplify equations rationally and how to get the simplified equations with harmonious and consistent dynamics is given.

关键词： simplification operator equation operator constraint principle.

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RECENT ADVANCES IN SPACE STUDIES OF THE EATRH SURFACE, METEOROLOGY AND CLIMAfE IN CHINA

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空间科学学报 1998年第S1期18卷 61-70页

作者： LU Da-ren(institute of atmospheric Physics, The Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029)

During past 2 years, Chinese scientists have conducted a series of scientific,technical, and application research relating to earth observation for satellite and payload development, meteorological and environmental monitoring, disaster reduction, resources surveying, and sustainable development of national economy and society. An short and incomplete review is given in this paper.

关键词： Chinese space research earth observation Satellite programs Remote sensing

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