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Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 2. Training Center of chinese meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Training Center of chinese meteorological Administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

Subspace Search Method for Quadratic Programming With BoxConstraints

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 1999年第3期17卷 307-314页

作者： Zi-luan Wei(ICMSEC, chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china) 中科院计算数学与科学工程计算所北京

A subspace search method for solving quadratic programming with box constraints is presented in this paper. The original problem is divided into many independent subproblem at an initial point, and a search direction is obtained by solving each of the subproblem, as well as a new iterative point is determined such that the value of objective function is decreasing. The convergence of the algorithm is proved under certain assumptions, and the numerical results are also given.

关键词： subspace search method quadratic programing matrix splitting

MODELLING AND NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF A GAUGE PERIODIC TIME DEPENDENT GINZBURG-LANDAU MODEL FOR TYPE-Ⅱ SUPERCONDUCTORS

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 1997年第4期15卷 365-384页

作者： Zhi-ming Chen (Institute of Mathematics, chinese academy of Sciences, beijing, china) 中科院数学所北京

In this paper we seek the solutions of the time dependent Ginzburg-Landau model for type-Ⅱ superconductors such that the associated physical observables are spatially periodic with respect to some lattice whose basic lattice cell is not necessarily rectangular. After appropriately foring the gange, the model can be formulated as a system of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations with quasi-periodic boundary conditions. We first give some results concerning the existence, uniqueness and regularity of solutions and then we propose a semiimplicit finite element scheme solving the system of nonlinear partial dmerential equations and show the optimal error estimates both in the L2 and energy *** also report on some numerical results at the end of the paper.

关键词： Math QT MODELLING AND NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF A GAUGE PERIODIC TIME DEPENDENT GINZBURG-LANDAU MODEL FOR TYPE SUPERCONDUCTORS

Compositions of heavy minerals in Northeastern china sandlands and provenance analysis

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第11期50卷 1715-1723页

作者： XIE Jing1,2 & DING ZhongLi1 1 Institute of Geology and Geophysics, chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China

Sand samples deposited since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from the Hulun Buir, Horqin and Otin-dag sandlands were measured for their assemblages of heavy minerals and chemical compositions of detrital garnets and tourmalines. Heavy mineral assemblages of these three sandlands consist mainly of garnet, ilmenite, epidote and minor amphibole and magnetite. Garnets consist mainly of high Mg type-A ones (58% on average), and minor type-B ones. Toumalines are mainly composed of Mg-rich and minor Fe-rich ones. Compared with those of central-southern Mongolia and central Tarim, these three sandlands are derived from the Phanerozoic rocks of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt and the Archean and Paleoprotorozoic basement rocks of the North china Craton. Our results provide direct evidence that the present-day sands may be reworked from LGM ones. Differences of heavy mineral composi-tions occur between the samples of the three sandlands and Taklimakan Desert, indicating that the material of the western arid regions contributes little to the eastern sandlands.

关键词： heavy minerals,provenance,Northeastern china,garnet,tourmaline

Diagnosis of a Severe Rainstorm Event Induced by Eastly Wave and Vortex in Off Southeast Coast of china

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高原气象 2009年第5期28卷 1058-1066页

作者： ZHENG Feng1-3(1.chinese academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing 100081,china 2.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,china 3.Wenzhou meteorological Bureau,Wenzhou 325027,china) chinese academy of meteorological Sciences 北京 100081

Using the NCEP reanalysis at 1°×1° resolution in conjunction with satellite imagery,a study is undertaken of easterly wave related rainstorm events on August 3~4,2001 in seaboards between northern Fujian and southern Zhejiang,expounding the scheme for computing helicity,and exploring the rainstorm evolution and the genesis of the Yandang mountains-triggered a meso-vortex(Duan and Chen,2005) by means of helicity and Q vector ***,MM5V2 is employed to simulate the easterly wave caused meso-vorte...

关键词： Easterly wave Meso-vortex Helicity Q vector MM5 modeling

Dense fog events in the Yangtze Delta and their climatic characteristics

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第7期17卷 821-827页

作者： Zhou Zijiang~(**) Zhu Yanjun Ju Xiaohui (National meteorological Information Centre,beijing 100081,china) National meteorological Information Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on daily observation records of fog and atmospheric visibility from 24 meteorological stations in the Yangtze Delta in the period from 1954 to 2005,the identification standard of dense fog events(DFE)has been proposed in this paper,a quite complete time series of DFEs for the delta constructed,and the climate characteristics of these events analyzed *** results showed that there were 564 typical DFEs in the delta from 1954 to *** most frequent season for DFEs was from October to next April,when the number of the events accounted for 89.9% of the annual total,while the least frequent season was summer,when the number only accounted for 1.6% of the total due to higher temperature and more convective weather in the *** the Yangtze Delta, DFEs occurred less and were weaker in the 1960s,but turned to increase from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s,with an abrupt change in ***,DFEs occurred more frequently,intensively,and indeterministically,and in particular,most fre- quently in the 1980s and intensively in the *** both the frequency and intensity of DFEs decline apparently in the period of 2000—2005 in the delta.

关键词： the Yangtze Delta dense fog events(DFE) inter-annual variation Mann-Kendall method running-t test

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china 3 Heilongjiang meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of the chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China Heilongjiang meteorological Administration Harbin China

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

Simulations for terrestrial planets formation

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Science china(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2009年第5期52卷 794-803页

作者： ZHANG Niu 1,2 &JI JiangHui 2,3 1Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences,beijing 100049,china 2Purple Mountain Observatory,chinese academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,china 3 National Astronomical Observatories,chinese academy of Sciences,beijing 100012.china Graduate University of chinese academy of Sciences Beijing China Purple Mountain Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing China National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

In this paper,the formation of terrestrial planets in the late stage of planetary formation is investigated using the two-planet *** that time,the protostar formed for about 3 Ma and the gas disk *** the model,the perturbations from Jupiter and Saturn are *** of the mass of outer planet,and the initial eccentricities and inclinations of embryos and planetesimals are also *** results show that,terrestrial planets are formed in 50 Ma,and the accretion rate is about 60%-80%.In each simulation,3-4 terrestrial planets are formed inside"Jupiter"with masses of 0.15 -3.6M⊕.In the 0.5-4 AU,when the eccentricities of planetesimals are excited,planetesimals are able to accrete material from wide radial *** plenty of water material of the terrestrial planet in the Habitable Zone may be transferred from the farther places by this *** could also happen a few times between two major planets only if the outer planet has a moderate mass and the small terrestrial planet could survive at some resonances over time scale of 10 8 *** one of our simulations,commensurability of the orbital periods of planets is very ***,a librating-circulating 3:2 configuration of mean motion resonance is found.

关键词： astrophysics exoplanet planetary formation n-body simulation

Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2 & CHOU Jifan2,3 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 3. Training Center for china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型