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Comprehensive Approaches to Earthquake Prediction

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Earthquake Research in china 1999年第2期13卷 127-140页

作者： Zhang Guomin, Li Li, and Jiao MingruoCenter for Analysis and Prediction, china seismological bureau, beijing 100036,{2.

There may be various anomalies from fields of multi-discipline before large earthquakes, including seismological anomalies and the anomalous changes in crustal deformation, underground fluids, geochemistry, geomagnetic fields, ground resistivity, etc. Precursors of a single discipline only reflect the process of earthquake preparation from one aspect. Only when various precursors from multi-disciplined fields are put into a unified process of earthquake preparation can the process be understood and identified comprehensively. The comprehensive methods used in earthquake prediction are outlined in this paper. The relationship that the forthcoming main shock bears with the precursory features such as the time-space distribution, the order of the precursors, etc. is analyzed. Research shows that a few of the main shocks can be predicted with the comprehensive methods to some extent.

关键词： Earthquake prediction Comprehensive methods for earthquake prediction Precursors

TEMPORAL ORDERLINESS OF EARTHQUAKES (M≥8) ON china MAINLAND——A NEW APPROACH TO THE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

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地震地质 1991年第3期 237-240页

作者： Xu Dao-yi, Huang Jian-fa and Wang Xiang-nan(institute of Geology, State seismological {2., beijing 10002.)

Some great earthquakes of magnitude 8 or greater on china mainland repeatedly occurred at the intervals of 2.2. 94, 48, and 2. years. It incited us to study the time interval between every pair of great earthquakes (M≥8) on china mainland. The result shows that there are four groups of clear orderliness distinguished in the most disorder distribution of earthquakes. The distinguished orderliness can be used to estimate the occurrence of next great earthquakes in china.

关键词： Orderliness Earthquake prediction china mainland Earthquake migration Seismo-active period Taiji Sequence

Detailed Study of Holocene Paleoearthquakes of the Active Haiyuan Fault

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Continental Dynamics 2001年第2期6卷 59-66页

作者： MIN Wei, ZHANG Peizhen, DENG Qidong and MAO Fengying institute of Geology, china seismological bureau, {2., 10002. institute of Geology China Seismological Bureau Beijing 100029

Through studying eighteen trenches along the Haiyuan fault, ten paleoearthquakes since ten thousand years ago were determined. The paleoearthquakes have different rupture scales. The first and the last events were the rupturing along the entire fault, while the rest of them along the secondary segments of the fault. Temporally, the paleoearthquakes distributions are not uniform so that they are characterized by clustering and having back and forth spatially from the west to middle -east segment of the fault. The magnitude of earthquakes along the entire ruptured fault is about 8.5 and of those along the secondary ruptured segments is about 7.5.

关键词： trench paleoearthquake cluster Haiyuan

The Triggering Mechanism for the Largest Aftershock (M_S=6.3) of the Great Luhuo Event (M_S=7.6) in 1973

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Earthquake Research in china 2003年第1期17卷 42-50页

作者： Liu Guiping, Fu Zhengxiang and Ma Mingchina seismological {2., beijing 100036, china china seismological {2. Beijing 100036 China

The Great Luhuo Event ( M S=7 6) occurred on February 6, 1973 in Sichuan Province. There were a lot of aftershocks in the source area. The largest aftershock ( M S=6 3) occurred along a normal fault zone between the Xianshuihe Fault and the Ganzi Yushu fault. Based on the focal mechanism solution, surface rupture, coseismic dislocation and seismo\|geological tectonics of the event, an elastic dislocation model of the Great Luhuo Event with a strike slip mechanism was designed and the Coulomb Failure Stress Change ( ΔCFS) in the slip direction on normal faults along and surrounding the source zone due to the event was calculated. The results showed that the largest aftershock occurred in an area with ΔCFS >0, and that ΔCFS =4 5MPa. Therefore, the largest aftershock was probably triggered by the Coulomb Failure Stress Change.

关键词： The Great Luhuo Event The largest aftershock The Coulomb Failure Stress triggering

Study on Medium- and Long-term Strong Earthquake Risk Along the Zhangjiakou-Penglai Fault Zone

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Earthquake Research in china 2001年第2期15卷 155-163页

作者： Fu Zhengxiang, Liu Jie, and Li GuipingCenter for Analysis and Prediction, china seismological bureau, beijing 100036,{2. Center for Analysis and Prediction China Seismological Bureau Beijing 100036 China

The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North china Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 2.0-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2.10, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.

关键词： Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone Medium- andlong-term strong earthquake prediction Earthquake occurrence probability

Vulnerability Analysis in Earthquake Loss Estimate

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Earthquake Research in china 1998年第4期12卷 4-12页

作者： Chen Yong, Chen Qifu, and Chen LingCenter for Analysis and Prediction, china seismological bureau, beijing 100036,{2.

The adobes in Costa Rica have almost the same vulnerability as the old civil houses in china, which represent vulnerability in the worst case. On the other hand, the high quality buildings in Costa Rica have the same vulnerability as the reinforced concrete buildings in china due to the adoption of state-of-art techniques in design and construction, which represent the vulnerability of the best case. The macroeconomic vulnerability defined by Chen et al. falls in the middle of the two extreme cases of the inventory studied because the total macroscopic loss is the sum of losses of different types of buildings and facilities. Therefore the macroeconomic vulnerability must be greater than that of the best case and less than that of the worst. The use of macroscopic vulnerability in earthquake loss estimate is easy, simple and feasible. The vulnerability plots are preliminary in nature and should be refined with additional earthquake loss data.

关键词： Vulnerability Inventory Earthquake loss Macroeconomic vulnerability.

Newly-generated Seismic Rupture Zone:Identification,Type Division and Seismogeological Significance

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Earthquake Research in china 2000年第1期14卷 66-78页

作者： Xiang Hongfa, Zhang Wanxia, Guo Shunmin and Xu Xiweiinstitute of Geology, china seismological bureau, {2. 10002., china institute of Geology China Seismological Bureau Beijing 100029 China

The results of geological research show that those phenomena such as surface geology,geomorphology,deep geophysical field,and time-space distribution of seismicities can be usedas the main seismogeological indicators to identify the newly-generated seismic rupture zone(NSRZ).According to their formation and evolution process,the NSRZs can be divided intothree types:pre-rupture-isolated,quasi-rupture-discontinuous and *** a pre-rupture-isolated NSRZ,the seismicity is dominated by medium-small *** a quasi-rupture-discontinuous NSRZ,the frequency and intensity of strong earthquakesincrease and there may even be the largest earthquake to occur.A major-rupture-connectedNSRZ is the segment where rupture has entered the mature stage;in such a zone,theintensity and duration of seismic activity depend on the constitutive condition and regionalstress field in the zone.

关键词： Newly-generated seismic rupture zone (NSRZ) Identification Type division Seismogeological significance

ON THE APPLICATION OF SPHERICAL HARMONIC ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC FIELD TO A LOCAL REGION

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1985年第5期30卷 650-655页

作者：吴文京 institute of geophysics Stare Seismological Bureau Beijinghe spherical harmonic analysis of geomagnetic field gives a convenient mathematical form for its global distribution and by means of observations made on the earth's surface makes analytid continuations upwards to the entire free space and downwards into the earth. It makes possible the discrimination between the internal and external sources of the field and attributes physical significance to each term of the harmonic series.

The spherical harmonic analysis of geomagnetic field gives a convenient mathematical form for its global distribution and, by means of observations made on the earth’s surface makes analytid continuations upwards to the entire free space and downwards into the earth. It makes possible the discrimination between the internal and external sources of the field, and attributes physical significance to each term of the harmonic series.

关键词： LOCAL discrimination convenient spherical harmonic fitting distr inherent latter fitted

A study of the microbial mineralization in submarine black smoker chimneys from the Okinawa Trough

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2009年第2期28卷 87-95页

作者： FENG Jun LI Jianghai CHU Fengyou National Earthquake Response Support Service China Earthquake Adiministration Beijing 100049 China School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China Second institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Hangzhou 310012 China

Large amounts of microfossil records discovered in the seafloor black smoker chimney are reported from the Okinawa Trough. They are well preserved and can be divided into four types of filamentous microfossils. It suggests that the fossils may be derived from sulfur or iron oxidation chemolithotrophic prokaryotes and fungi. Based on the comparison studies of the microbial mineralization processes, two steps of biomineralization were hypothesized：（1） biology controlled mineralization; and （2. biology induced mineralization. At the early stage of the mineralization, the biology controlling mineralization is dominating; at the later stage, the biology inducing mineralization is the main mechanism. The composition of the fluids and the species of the microbes will determine the types of the minerals formed.

关键词： microfossils biomineralization black smoker Okinawa Trough