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The mechanism of the effects of the upwelling mean on the ENSO event mature phase locking

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1266-1272页

作者： YAN BangLiang CMSR, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china CMSR Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The mechanism of the effects of the upwelling mean on the ENSO event mature phase locking is ex-amined by using a mixed-mode model. The results show that the positive feedback process of the ef-fects of the seasonal variation of the upwelling mean on the Kelvin wave is the mechanism of the locking of the event mature phase to the end of the calendar year. The memory of the Rossby waves for the sign-shifting of the sea surface temperature anomaly from positive to negative 6 months before the cold peak time is the other mechanism of the locking of the La Nia event mature phase to the end of the calendar year. The results here are different from previous ones which suggest that the balance between cold and warm trends of sea surface temperature anomaly is the mechanism involved. The cold trend is caused by the upwelling Kelvin wave from upwelling Rossby wave reflected at the western boundary, excited by the westerly anomaly stress over the central Pacific and amplified by the seasonal variation of the coupled strength in its way propagating westward. The warm trend is caused by the Kelvin wave forced by the western wind stress over the middle and eastern equatorial Pacific. The cause of the differences is due to the opposite phase of the seasonal variation of the upwelling mean to that in the observation and an improper parameterization scheme for the effects of the seasonal varia-tion of the upwelling mean on the ENSO cycle in previous studies.

关键词： Kelvin wave Rossby wave interaction between atmosphere and sea positive feedback

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2.and B2.scenarios

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1024-1030页

作者： BUEH Cholaw LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2.and B2.scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 2.st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North china increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North china implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North china, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North china, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

关键词：模拟亚洲东方季风气侯变化大气循环模型

An improved δ-Eddington approximation

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chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第4期44卷 304-309页

作者： QIU Jinhuaninstitute of atmospheric {2. , chinese academy of sciences , beijing 100029, china institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on an accuracy analysis of two-stream approximations, an improved δ-Eddington ap-proximation is developed. The approximation has much better accuracy than all exiting two-stream ap-proximations as the optical depth is less than unity. As the surface reflectance is zero and the opticaldepth is less than unity, errors in both transmission and reflection calculated by the present approxima-tion are more one time less than those by other two-stream approximations. In the case of aerosol opti-cal depth of2.6%, respectively. The errors are over 41% and one times lessthan those by Eddington or δ-Eddington.

关键词： radiation flux fractional factor of δ-function Eddington approximation.

Strengthening of the boreal winter Hadley circulation and its connection with ENSO

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第11期17卷 1327-1333页

作者： Ma Jie1,2.and Li Jianping2.1. College of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,{2. 2. LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{2.) College of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Acad. of Sci. Beijing 100029 China

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is carried out for the year-to-year variability of the boreal winter (DJF) mass stream function of the mean meridional circulation (MMC) during the period 1948—2.05. The results demonstrate that it is dominated by the equatorially asymmetric and symmetric modes. Further analysis shows that the former mode is linked with the boreal winter Hadley cell mainly on the decadal time-scale, and the latter on the interannual time-scale. The asymmetric mode index (AMI) with a clear upward trend contributes to the decadal strengthening of the boreal Hadley circulation, and is closely correlated with the tropical SST warming, especially in the region of Indo-west Pacific warm pool (INWP). Furthermore, the AMI also contributes to the abrupt change of the correlation coefficient between the boreal Hadley circulation and ENSO after 1976. The symmetric mode index (SMI) with robust and stable linkage with ENSO shows a significant interannual variability, suggesting that the variability of the Hadley circulation is mainly associated with ENSO on the interannual time-scale.

关键词： the Hadley circulation interannual time-scale decadal time-scale

2.02.The extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1031-1033页

作者： WANG Huijun LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2.02.and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the winter of 2.02.is of the warmest in the recent 54 years in North Asia, which was caused by both decadal scale and interannual scale variability. The interannual variability is proved to be as the main cause for the event, and it is related to the global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, with the strongest of them in the Eastern Hemisphere and in the middle and high latitude region of the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词：大气环流亚洲北部高强度暖冬现象天气资料

Prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North china

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第5期51卷 709-720页

作者： LANG XianMei Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china Center for Disastrous Climate Research and Prediction Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North china. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North china, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North china by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32.year (1970 -2.01) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the institute of atmospheric physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North china, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in china where dust weather occurs frequently.

关键词： spring dust weather frequency prediction model iap9l-agcm hindcast experiment real-time prediction

Input function and simulated distributions of tritium in the North Pacific

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Science china Earth sciences 2010年第3期53卷 441-453页

作者： BA Qi1,2.& XU YongFu1 1 State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2.Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china State Key Laboratory of atmospheric Boundary Layer physics and atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing China

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) of the North Pacific with a southern open boundary condition is used to simulate the distribution and transport of tritium in the North Pacific. First, the observed tritium in precipitation dataset of GNIP/ISOHIS is chosen, and used to develop an input function of tritium for the model domain from 1951 to 1997 in terms of the triangulation for interpolation. Then, the input function is used as an upper flux for the tritium model. The OGCM with tritium is integrated for 47 years with the initial condition of zero tritium concentrations. Compared with the observations from GEOSECS and WOCE, the model generates a meridional gradient of surface tritium concentrations and the high tritium concentrations in the subsurface layer, which is consistent with that indicated in the observations. The simulated time series of total tritium fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean shows a spike in 1963. The total inventory of tritium in the ocean changes slowly with time after 1975. Tritium enters the higher-latitude region, and then is mainly transported by the subsurface process towards the equatorial region, which is well simulated in the model. However, the difference mainly occurs at 30°N–40°N, which can be seen also in the simulation of CFCs. This difference may partly originate from the insufficient description of physical processes in the OGCM. Nevertheless, some uncertainties exist in the development of the tritium input function, which can also influence the simulated results.

关键词： North Pacific basin-wide ocean general circulation model tritium input function tritium distributions

The influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming on the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第3期52卷 323-332页

作者： LI ShuangLin Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

During the past decades, concurrent with global warming, most of global oceans, particularly the tropical Indian Ocean, have become warmer. Meanwhile, the Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) exhibits a deepening trend. Although previous modeling studies reveal that radiative cooling effect of ozone depletion plays a dominant role in causing the deepening of SPV, the simulated ozone-depletion-induced SPV deepening is stronger than the observed. This suggests that there must be other factors canceling a fraction of the influence of the ozone depletion. Whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming (IOW) is such a factor is unclear. This issue is addressed by conducting ensemble atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. And one idealized IOW with the amplitude as the observed is prescribed to force four AGCMs. The results show that the IOW tends to warm the southern polar stratosphere, and thus weakens SPV in austral spring to summer. Hence, it offsets a fraction of the effect of the ozone depletion. This implies that global warming will favor ozone recovery, since a warmer southern polar stratosphere is un-beneficial for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which is a key factor to ozone depletion chemical reactions.

关键词： tropical Indian Ocean warming Southern Hemispheric stratospheric polar vortex atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments planetary wave

North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the Western North Pacific typhoon frequency?

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第8期50卷 1251-1257页

作者： FAN Ke institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{2., china Department of atmospheric Science, Yun-nan University, Kunming 650091, china institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China

The relationship between the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the typhoon frequency has been studied in this paper. It follows that the index for the sea ice cover in the North Pacific (ISA) both in December-January-February (DJF) and in March-April-May (MAM) is negatively correlated with annual typhoon number over the western North Pacific (TNWNP) during 1965―2.04, with correlation coeffi-cients of -0.42.and -0.49 respectively (above 99% significant level). Large sea ice cover in the North Pacific tends to decrease TNWNP. Positive ISA (MAM) is associated with the tropical circulation and SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which may lead to unfavorable dynamic and thermal conditions for typhoon genesis over WNP from June to October (JJASO). The variability of the atmospheric circula-tion over the North Pacific, associated with the ISA anomaly in MAM is connected to the tropical at-mospheric circulation variability in MAM via the teleconnection wave train. Besides, as the tropical circulation has strong seasonal persistency from the MAM to JJASO, thus, the ISA in MAM-related variability of the tropical atmospheric circulation as well as the SST can affect the typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.

关键词： typhoon sea ice cover North Pacific teleconnection