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Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 2. training {2. of chinese meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China training center of {2. meteorological Administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2.& ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate center, china {2. Administration, beijing 100081, china 2.National {2. center, china {2. Administration, beijing 100081, china 3 chinese Academy of {2. Sciences, china {2. Administration, beijing 100081, china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3 & ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), {2. Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 3. National Climate center, {2. meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1021-1035页

作者： LIU YunYun1,2.3 & DING YiHui2.1 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{2., china 2.National Climate center,{2., china 3 Graduate University of chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate center Beijing China Graduate University of chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on the Indian and chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern china. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South china Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion

关键词： Indian summer monsoon (ISM) the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley teleconnection mode

Dipole anomaly in the Arctic atmosphere and winter Arctic sea ice motion

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第9期48卷 1529-1536页

作者： WU Bingyi1, ZHANG Renhe1 & WANG Jia2.1. chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{2., china 2. International Arctic Research center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China International Arctic Research center University of Alaska Fairbanks USA

This paper investigates a previously-ignored atmospheric circulation anomaly-di- pole structure anomaly in the arctic atmosphere, and its relationship with the winter sea ice mo- tion, based on analyses of the International Arctic Buoy Programme Data (1979―1998) and datasets from the National center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for the period of 1960―2.02. The dipole structure anomaly is the second-leading mode of EOF of monthly mean SLP north of 70°N during the winter season (Oct.―Mar.), which accounts for 13% of the variance. One of its two anomaly centers is over the Canadian Archipelago; the other is situated over northern Eurasia and the Siberian marginal seas. Due to the dipole structure anomaly’s strong meridionality, it becomes an important mechanism to drive both anomalous sea ice export out of the Arctic Basin and cold air outbreaks into the Barents Sea, the Nordic Seas and northern Europe.

关键词： dipole anomaly, winter season, Arctic, sea ice motion, sea ice export.

Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1034-1039页

作者： LI Jianping1,2.& CHOU Jifan2.3 1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002.,{2. 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,{2. 3. training center for{2. meteorological Administration, beijing 100081,{2. LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China training center for{2. meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

关键词：整体分析理论气侯体系应用不定性计算法则气侯科学数字模型

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate center,china {2. Administration,beijing 100081,china 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 3 National {2. center,china {2. Administration,beijing 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2.BIAN LinGen3 & DAI YongJiu2.1 meteorological Observation center of{2. meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,china 2.State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,beijing Normal University,beijing 100875,china 3 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing 100081,china meteorological Observation center of{2. meteorological Administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis

Simulation of 1991-2.05 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2.3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2.Guangdong Climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 National Climate center, china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou China Guangdong Climate center Guangzhou China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing Climate center (BCC),{2. meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2.05 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2. By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2.00, 2.01, 2.02.and 2.04), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32.d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布