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Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Science china Earth sciences 2005年第S2期48卷 155-172页

作者： XU Jianming, XU Xiangde, LIU Yu, DING Guoan, CHEN Huailiang, HU Jiangkai, ZHANG Jianchun, WU Hao, LI Weiliang, HE Jinhai, YANG Yuanqin & WANG Jiahe Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china state {2. laboratory of severe weather, Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china meteorological Bureau of Henan Province, Institute of meteorological sciences, Zhengzhou 450000, china National meteorological Centre of china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china National meteorological Information Centre of china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China state key {2. of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China meteorological Bureau of Henan Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences Zhengzhou 450000 China National meteorological Centre of china meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China National meteorological Information Centre of china meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2.04 to March 2.05, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution e

关键词： CMAQ-MOS point-area combination emission source influence emission inventory air quality.

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Estimation of Sand Transportation Rate for Fixed and Semi-Fixed Dunes Using meteorological Wind Data

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Pedosphere 2009年第1期19卷 129-136页

作者： HU Xia LIU Lian-You LI Shun-Jiang XIAO Bi-Lin LIU Mu-Xin key Lab of Environment Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal Univeristy Beijing 100875 （China） academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs/Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 （China） state key {2. of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture Institute of Soil Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing 21008 （China） Institute of Plant Nutrition and Resources Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences Beijing 100097 （China） Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 （China）

Taibus County, Inner Mongolia, china, lies in a farming-pastoral ecotone, where severe wind erosion and various aeolian sand hazards are prevalent and fixed and semi-fixed sand dunes occur frequently. This study was conducted to investigate the relationships between sand transportation rate and wind speed for the fixed and semi-fixed sand dunes based on field measurements. The annual quantity of soil erosion by wind was estimated using {2. wind data. The results indicated that the sand transportation rate in Taibus County in 2.00 was 57.38 kg cm-1 year-1 for the semi-fixed dunes and 4.56 kg cm-1 year-1 for the fixed dunes. The total duration of erosive winds covered 12.5% of the time of the year, and spring posed the highest potential of sand transportation. Wind with low speed (≤ 17 m s-1) and high frequency plays a dominant role in sand transportation, while strong wind (≥ 17 m s-1) with low frequency significantly enhanced the sand transportation. Erosive wind speed, directions, and frequency were three crucial dynamic factors influencing sand hazards in the farming-pastoral ecotone. The dominant factors intensifying sand and dust storms in Taibus County might be related to the favorable wind condition in combination with the durable drought, which led to land desertification and vegetation degradation.

关键词： fixed and semi-fixed dunes meteorological wind data sand transportation rate wind erosion

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Spatial character of the gaseous and particulate state compound correlation of urban atmospheric pollution in winter and summer

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第S2期48卷 64-79页

作者： XU Xiangde, SHI Xiaohui, XIE Lian, DING Guoan, MIAO Qiuju, MA Jianzhong & ZHENG Xiangdong state key {2. of severe weather, Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric sciences, North Carolina state University, Raleigh, NC2.695-82.8, USA National Climate Center, china meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china state key {2. of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China state key {2. of severe weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Department of Marine Earth and Atmospheric Sciences North Carolina State University Raleigh NC27695-8208 USA National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The spatial/temporal variation information of atmospheric dynamic-chemical processes at observation site points of the "canopy" boundary of beijing urban building ensemble and over urban area "surface", as well as the seasonal correlation structure of the gaseous and par-ticulate states of urban atmospheric pollution (UAP) and its seasonal conversion feature at observation points are investigated, using the comprehensive observation data of the beijing City Air Pollution Observation Experiment (BECAPEX) in winter and summer 2.03 with a "point-surface" combined research approach. By using "one dimension spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF)" principal component analysis (PCA) mode, the seasonal change of gaseous and particulate states of atmospheric aerosols and the association feature of pollutant species under the background of the complicated structure of urban boundary layer (UBL) are analyzed. The comprehensive analyses of the principal components of particle concentrations, gaseous pollutant species, and meteorological conditions reveal the seasonal changes of the complex constituent and structure features of the gaseous and particulate states of UAP to further trace the impact feature of urban aerosol pollution surface sources and the seasonal difference of the component structure of UAP. Research results suggest that in the temporal evolution of the gaseous and particulate states of winter/summer UAP, NOx, CO, and SO2.showed an "in-phase" evolution feature, however, O3 showed an "inverse-phase" relation with other species, all possessing distinctive dependent feature. On the whole, summer concentrations of gaseous pollutants CO, SO2. and NOx were obviously lower than winter ones, especially, the reduction in CO concentration was most distinctive, and ones in SO2.and NOx were next. However, the summer O3 concentration was more than twice winter one. Winter/summer differences in PM10 and PM2.5 particle concentrations were relatively not obvious, which ind

关键词： aerosol correlation structure principal component analysis.

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Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon

Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the onset and intera...

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“2.10年北京气象学会中青年优秀论文评选”学术研讨会

作者： QI YanJun~(1,2.3),ZHANG RenHe~(2.),LI Tim~4 & WEN Min~2.1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese academy of sciences,{2. 10002.,china 2.state key laboratory of severe weather,Chinese academy of meteorological sciences,{2. 100081,china 3 Graduate University of the Chinese academy of sciences,{2. 100049,china 4 International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu 96816,HI,USA

The role of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) on the seasonal and interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the analysis of observational *** is shown that the ISO significantly contributes to the establishment of low-level westerlies during the monsoon onset and developing *** effect of the ISO on the annual cycle of the monsoon is through nonlinear eddy momentum *** the interannual timescale,the Indian summer monsoon rainfall exhibits a significant out-of-phase relationship with the ISO intensity over the Indian monsoon *** strong ISO years it appears the weak monsoon when there is an abnormal high over the India subcontinent in the lower *** weak ISO years there exists an abnormal low and the strong monsoon appears.

关键词： intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) Indian summer monsoon interannual variation

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Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon *** Ⅰ:Observational Analysis

Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon *** Ⅰ:Ob...

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强化科技基础推进气象现代化——第2.届中国气象学会年会

作者： Liguang Wu,Huijun Zong,and Jia Liang key laboratory of {2. Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,china state key laboratory of severe weather,Chinese academy of {2. sciences,{12.,china

Large-scale monsoon gyres and the involved tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific have been documented in previous *** study is aimed to understand how monsoon gyres affect tropical cyclone *** the first part of this study,an observational study is conducted on monsoon gyres during the period 2.00-2.10,with a focus on their structures and the associated tropical cyclone formation.A total of 36 monsoon gyres are identified in May-October during 2.00-2.10,among which 31 monsoon gyres are accompanied with the formation of 43 tropical cyclones,accounting for 2..3% of the total tropical cyclone *** gyres generally are found on the poleward side of the climatological monsoon trough with a peak occurrence in *** about 1000 km outward from the center in at lower levels,the cyclonic circulation of the composited monsoon gyre shrinks with height and is replaced with negative relative vorticity above 2.0 *** maximum winds of the composited monsoon gyre appear 500-800 km away from the gyre center with a magnitude of 8-13 m s-1 at 850 *** agreement with previous studies,the composited monsoon gyre shows enhanced southwesterly flows and convection on the south-southeast side due to Rossby wave energy *** of tropical cyclones associated with monsoon gyres are found to form near the centers of monsoon gyres and the northeast end of the enhanced southwesterly flows,accompanying with weak vertical wind shear.

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海南岛附近区域热带气旋低层风场的变化特征

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气候与环境研究 2018年第3期23卷 299-310页

作者：薛霖李英王丙兰周荣卫中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室北京100081 南京信息工程大学南京210044 中国气象局公共气象服务中心北京100081

利用1979~2.15年JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)最佳路径资料(2.01~2.15年资料用于台风风圈结构分析)及ERA-interim(0.5°×0.5°)再分析数据,统计分析我国海南岛附近区域(15.5°N^2..5°N,106°E^116°E)热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)低层风场的变化特征。结果表明:(1)年均5.5个TC于4~12.主要以西偏北路径进入该区域,其中海南岛东南侧海域TC出现频率最高且强TC比例最多,而岛西北区域出现频率最低,强TC比例最少。(2.TC中心位于海南岛不同方位时,其外围低层风场分布具有不同的非对称特征,且大风出现比率也各有差异;TC中心位于海南岛上时出现大风比率最高,位于岛南侧时次之,位于岛北侧时最小。(3)该区域TC平均最大风速半径(RMW)为58.3 km;TC位于岛上时RMW最大,而位于岛西南侧最小。(4)TC近中心最大风速由海上向陆地急剧减小,其高值中心主要位于雷州半岛东侧及西侧海域。(5)研究区域内TC的34节风圈半径在TC环流的东侧大而西侧小,强TC大而弱TC小。(6)不同区域TC变形程度有所差异。平均而言,位于岛西南侧TC变形最大而位于岛东南侧时变形最小。

关键词：热带气旋低层风场风圈半径海南岛

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Origins of intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern South china Sea in boreal winter

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2017年第1期10卷 44-50页

作者： CAO Xi WU Ren-Guang Center for Monsoon System Research Chinese academy of sciences {2. key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China state key {2. of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

This study investigates the origins of intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern South china Sea（SCS） region in boreal *** is found that intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern SCS have different origins on the 10-2.-day and 30-60-day time *** the 10-2.-day time scale,large rainfall anomalies over the southern SCS are preceded by strong northerly wind anomalies associated with the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）,by about two *** the 30-60-day time scale,the strong EAWM-related northerly wind anomalies almost appear simultaneously with large rainfall anomalies over the southern *** addition,obvious large rainfall anomalies occur over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean about one week before the peak southern SCS rainfall *** indicates that the convection and related circulation anomalies with origins over the tropical Indian Ocean may play an important role in inducing intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern SCS on the 30-60-day time scale,but not on the 10-2.-day time scale.

关键词： Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies southern South china Sea boreal winter 10-2.-day and 30-60-day time scales

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CHANGES IN MONSOON AND TROPICAL CYCLONE EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST china FROM 1960 TO 2.12

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2015年第1期4卷 12-17页

作者： ZHIZ HONG SU FUMIN REN JIN WEI XIAOHONG LIN SHUNJI SHI XUEMING ZHOU laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen meteorological Bureau {2. key laboratory of severe weather (La SW),Chinese academy of meteorological sciences (CAMS) Fujian meteorological Observatory laboratory of Straits Meteorology Xiamen meteorological Bureau state key {2. of severe weather (La SW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) Fujian meteorological Observatory

Using daily precipitation data from 110 stations in Southeast china from 1960 to 2.12.the extreme precipitation(EP)events associated with monsoon and tropical cyclones were examined using the Objective Synoptic Analysis *** Southeast china,the extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones(TEP),which mainly occur in the summer(July–September),accounted for 2..9%of the total extreme precipitation amount,with 40–50%in the coastal *** the regional mean TEP amount showed an inconspicuous trend,total EP and monsoon EP(MEP)both showed an increasing trend,with the MEP trend being statistically *** there was little change in the frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Southeast china,the TEP contribution to frequency increased with increasing EP threshold and the frequency of TEP with daily precipitation of more than 300 mm showed an increasing trend in the background of global climate *** upward trend in the highest-threshold TEP events presents a challenge for mitigation of the damage associated with tropical cyclones.

关键词： extreme precipitation changes tropical cyclone monsoon Southeast china

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The characteristics and regularities of the climate change over the past millennium in china

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Science Bulletin 2011年第Z2期 2985-2985页

作者： ZHOU XiuJi state key {2. of severe weather, Chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china

Research on global climate change has been at the frontier of the contemporary sciences. Discussion and debate about climate warming in the recent century has attracted the attention of the world. Debate has focused on whether the greenhouse effect produced by human activities is a major factor responsible for modern climate warming and whether the warming trend will persist in the future.

关键词： over

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Data Assimilation of Dust Aerosol Observations for CUACE/Dust Forecasting System

Data Assimilation of Dust Aerosol Observations for CUACE/Dus...

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第三届中日韩气象学术会议

作者： T.Niu~1 S.L.Gong~(2.1) G.F.Zhu~3 H.L.Liu~1 X.Q.Hu~4 C.H.Zhou~1 Y.Q.Wang~1 ~1Center for Atmosphere Watch & Services(CAWAS)Chinese academy of meteorological {2. china meteorological Administration(CMA) beijing 100081 china ~2.ir Quality Research Division Science & Technology Branch Environment Canada 4905 Dufferin Street Toronto Ontario M3H 5T4 Canada ~3state key laboratory of severe {12. Chinese academy of meteorological {2. china meteorological Administration(CMA) beijing 100081 china ~4National Satellite meteorological Center china meteorological Administration(NSMC/CMA) beijing 100081 china

＜正＞A data assimilation system （DAS） was developed for the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment-Dust （CUACE/Dust） forecast system and applied in the operational forecasts of sand and dust storm （SDS） in spring *** system is based on a three dimensional variational method （3D-Var） and uses extensively the measurements of surface visibility and dust loading retrieval from the Chinese geostationary satellite *** results show that a major improvement to the capability of CUACE/Dust in forecasting the short-term variability in the spatial distribution and intensity of dust concentrations has been achieved,especially in those areas far from the source *** seasonal mean Threat Score （TS） over the East Asia in spring 2.06 increased from 0.2. to 0.31 by using the data assimilation system, a 41% *** assimilation results usually agree with the dust loading retrieved from FY-2. and visibility distribution from surface meteorological stations, which indicates that the 3D-Var method is very powerful for the unification of observation and numerical modeling results.

关键词： data assimilation 3D-Var method visibility satellite dust loading

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