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Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren laboratory for climate Studies,National climate Center,{3. meteorological administration,beijing 100081,{3. laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china {2. Admin- istration/National climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3.region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3.& ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key laboratory of {3. Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044,{2. 2. State Key laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of {3. Sciences, beijing 100081,{2. 3. National climate Center, Chinese {3. {13., beijing 100081,{2. 1. Jiangsu Key laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 2. State Key laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China 3. National climate Center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

Simulation of 1991-2.05 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2.3. DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2.Guangdong {2. Center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 National {2. Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong climate Center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing climate Center (BCC),{2. (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2.05 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2. By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2.00, 2.01, 2.02.and 2.04), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3. In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13. respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 3.2}d, 3.d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3.1 National climate Center,china {2. administration,beijing 100081,china 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 3.National {2. Center,china {2. administration,beijing 100081,china National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2.BIAN LinGen3.& DAI YongJiu2.1 meteorological Observation Center of{3.,{2. 100081,china 2.State Key laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,{2. Normal University,{2. 100875,china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{2. 100081,china meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological administration Beijing 100081 China State Key laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2.3.4, HAN YanBen2.& ZHANG YiJun3.1 Key laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites,{3.,{2., china 2.National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100012. china 3.Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{3.,{2., china 4 National Center for Space Weather,{3.,{2., china Key laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for EnvironmentalSatellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2.00 (Bastille Day) and 2. October 2.03.(2.OCT03. respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 3. MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 2.OCT03.event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 3. MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2.00, was far larger than that of the 2.OCT03.event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 2. October 2.03. when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 3.5 pfu measured on 14 July 2.00. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 2.OCT03.case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 2. October 2.03.captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系

Debating about the climate warming

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第1期16卷 1-6页

作者： WANG Shaowu1, LUO Yong2. ZHAO Zongci2. DONG Wenje2.and YANG Bao3.(1.Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, {3. 100871, china 2. {2. for climate Studies, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 3. Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 73.000, china) [a] Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing China [b] laboratory for climate Studies China Meterological Administration Beijing China [c] Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2. All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3. The warming from 1975 to 2.00 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.

关键词： climate warming MWP LIA the 2.th century.

Progress in china’s climate change study in the 2.th century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2004年第S1期 5-13页

作者： ZHAI Panmao1,2. CHAO Qingchen1,2. ZOU Xukai1,2.1. {3. for climate Studies,{2., beijing 100081, china 2. National climate Center,{2., beijing 100081, china)

Studies on the 2.th century climate change in china have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in china has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 oC. More reliable results for the latter part of the 2.th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest china, North china and Northeast china, and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over china in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. Studies suggest that climate change in china seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in china seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of china's climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.

关键词： th century climate change china

Sea-salt aerosol transport patterns over the Northern Hemisphere inferred from two subarctic ice core records

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第4期48卷 576-584页

作者： YAN Yuping1,2. KANG Shichang2.3.5, SUN Junying4,5, Paul A. Mayewski2.& QIN Dahe5 1. National {3. Center, china meteorological administration,{2., china 2. {3. Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100085, china 4. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,{2., china 5. Key laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment, Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 73.000, china 1. National climate Center China Meteorological Administration 100081 Beijing China 2. climate Change Institute University of Maine 04469 Orono ME USA 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 100085 Beijing China 4. Key laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences 730000 Lanzhou China 5. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences 100081 Beijing China

Atmospheric circulation reconstruction based on glaciochemical records requires knowledge of chemical concentration controls, such as source, transport pathway and strength. To gain insight into these processes, the relationships between glaciochemical records from two Northern Hemisphere sites (Mt. Logan in Yukon Territory and 2.D in southern Greenland) and instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) series are investigated. Calibrations between Mt. Logan sea-salt sodium (ssNa+) concentration and SLP series show that ssNa+ concentrations are closely correlated with the autumntime (SON) Aleutian Low and the summertime (JJA) North Pacific Subtropical High. Both the deepened Aleutian Low and enhanced North Pacific Sub- tropical High strengthen the transport of sea-salt aerosols from the North Pacific to the Mt. Logan region. Calibrations between 2.D ssNa+ concentrations and SLP series indicate that ssNa+ concentrations are closely related to the wintertime (Jan.) Icelandic Low. A deepening of the Icelandic Low strengthens winter storms and frequent cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and pushes more sea-salt laden air masses to the Greenland ice sheet. Therefore, ice core ssNa+ records from the Mt. Logan region can be considered as a proxy for reconstructing the au- tumntime Aleutian Low and summertime North Pacific Subtropical High, and the ssNa+ records from Greenland ice core (2.D) may provide a proxy for reconstructing the wintertime Icelandic Low.

关键词： sea-salt aerosol, ice core records, sea level pressure, subarctic regions.