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Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren laboratory for climate {2.,National climate Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china laboratory for climate {2. National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china {2. Admin- istration/National climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2.& ZHAO Ping3 1 laboratory for climate {2., National climate Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2.National meteorological Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china laboratory for climate {2. National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Progress in china’s climate change study in the 2.th century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2004年第S1期 5-13页

作者： ZHAI Panmao1,2. CHAO Qingchen1,2. ZOU Xukai1,2.1. laboratory for climate {2., china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2. National climate Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china)

studies on the 2.th century climate change in{2. have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in{2. has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 oC. More reliable results for the latter part of the 2.th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest{2., North{2. and Northeast{2., and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over{2. in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. studies suggest that climate change in{2. seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in{2. seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of{2.'s climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.

关键词： th century climate change china

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3 & ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044,{2. 2. State Key laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081,{2. 3. National climate Center, Chinese meteorological administration, beijing 100081,{2. Jiangsu Key laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China State Key laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China National climate Center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

Simulation of 1991-2.05 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2.3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2.Guangdong {2. Center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 National {2. Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou China Guangdong climate Center Guangzhou China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing climate Center (BCC),{2. (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2.05 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2. By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2.00, 2.01, 2.02.and 2.04), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32.d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Some characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第6期16卷 644-648页

作者： GAO Li, LI Jianping and REN Hongli (LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 10002., china Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, china National climate Center, laboratory of climate studies, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china) LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China National climate Center Laboratory of Climatic Studies China Meterological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Some important characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process are investigated, which include the invariability of atmospheric entropy range and local surface potential temperature, the conservation of the atmospheric mass intervened between any isentropic surface and the ground, and the isentropic surface intersecting with the ground. The analysis shows that the atmospheric reference state (ARS) for investigation on available potential energy (APE) should be defined objectively as the state which could be approached from the existing atmosphere by adiabatic adjustment, and be related to initial atmospheric state before adjustment. For the initial atmosphere state at any time, its corresponding ARS is different from the one at another time. Based on the above-mentioned conclusions, the reference state proposed by Lorenz cannot be obtained physically, so a new conception, the conditional minimum total potential energy, is put forward in order to objectively investigate atmospheric APE.

关键词： available potential energy adiabatic isentropic surface atmospheric reference state conditional minimum total potential energy.

Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2.1. National meteorological Centre, china meteorological administration,{2., china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china National meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2.& CUI Xuan 3 1 National climate Center,china {2. administration,beijing 100081,china 2.Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 10002.,china 3 National {2. Center,china {2. administration,beijing 100081,china National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological {2., beijing 100081, china Academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.2.℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.2.℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.