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Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and atmospheric predictability research

Science china Earth sciences 2006年第10期49卷 1111-1120页

作者： CHEN Baohua1, LI Jianping1,2.& DING Ruiqiang2.1. College of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,{2. 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002.,{2. 1. College of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12.days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (30°S―60°S, 30°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3―4 d. In addition, predictab

关键词： nonlinear, local, Lyapunov exponent, atmospheric predictability, maximal prediction time.

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Influence of atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical western North Pacific on the inter-decadal variations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange of water vapor

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第8期51卷 1179-1193页

作者： ZHAN RuiFen1,2.LI JianPing2.1Shanghai Typhoon institute of china Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 2.0030,{2. 2.tate Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),institute of atmospheric physics,chinese academy of sciences,Beijing 10002.,{2. 1. Shanghai Typhoon institute of china Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

This study investigates the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange(STE) of water vapor,emphasizes its interdecadal variations over Asia in boreal summer,and discusses the influences of atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) on them by using the Wei method with reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) for the years of *** climatology shows that the upward transport of water vapor across the tropopause in boreal summer is the most robust over the joining area of the South Asian Peninsula and Indian-Pacific Oceans(defined as AIPO).The upward transport over there can persistently convey the abundant water vapor into the stratosphere and then influence the distribution and variation of the stratospheric water *** analysis shows that interdecadal variations of the water vapor exchange over the AIPO are significant,and its abrupt change occurred in the mid-1970s and the early *** these three periods,as important channels of the water vapor exchange,the effect of Bay of Bengal-East Asia as well as South china Sea was gradually weakening,while the role of the WNP becomes more and more *** studies show that atmospheric heat sources over the Tibetan Plateau and the WNP are two main factors in determining the interdecadal variations of water vapor *** thermal influences over the Tibetan Plateau and the WNP have been greatly adjusted over the pass 44 *** synthesis influences the interdecadal variations of the water vapor exchange by changing the Asian summer monsoon,but their roles vary with time and *** after 1992.the influence of heat source over the Tibetan Plateau remarkably weakens,while the heat source over the WNP dominates the across-tropopause water vapor *** have important implications for understanding the transport of other components in the atmosphere and estimating the impact of human activities(

关键词： Tibetan Plateau tropical western North Pacific atmospheric heat source STE inter-decadal variations

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2.02.The extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation

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chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第10期48卷 1031-1033页

作者： WANG Huijun LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing {2., china LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science China

Features of an extra-strong warm winter event in North Asia in 2.02.and its accompanying anomalous atmospheric circulation were studied through diagnosis on the atmospheric reanalysis data set. Results show that the winter of 2.02.is of the warmest in the recent 54 years in North Asia, which was caused by both decadal scale and interannual scale variability. The interannual variability is proved to be as the main cause for the event, and it is related to the global scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, with the strongest of them in the Eastern Hemisphere and in the middle and high latitude region of the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词：大气环流亚洲北部高强度暖冬现象天气资料

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Operator constraint principle for simplifying atmospheric dynamical equations

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chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第12期46卷 1053-1056页

作者： LI Jianping & CHOU Jifan1. National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),{2., chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University

Based on the qualitative theory of atmospheric dynamical equations, a new method for simplifying equations, the operator constraint principle, is presented. The general rule of the method and its mathematical strictness are discussed. Moreover, the way that how to use the method to simplify equations rationally and how to get the simplified equations with harmonious and consistent dynamics is given.

关键词： simplification operator equation operator constraint principle.

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Adjoint method for the optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第8期48卷 1270-1279页

作者： LIU Feng1,2. HU Fei2.& ZHU Jiang2.1. College of Environmental sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, china {2., institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china 1. College of Environmental sciences Peking University 100871 Beijing China 2. lapc Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences 100029 Beijing China

The optimum planning of industrial pollutant sources, which optimizes the economic object without violating environmental constraints, is an important and hard task to be conquered. In this paper, an adjoint method is developed to solve the problem. The penalty function is in-troduced to deal with the environmental inequality constraints, and Lagrange function is con-structed to derive the adjoint equation and the gradient of the object function. In this means, the gradient of the object function can be calculated by solving the adjoint equation, and the infor-mation from the gradient is used to make the object function descend and approach to an optimal solution after some iterations. A two-dimensional, simplified model is used for numerical experi-ments. The theoretical derivations are verified by the results of the experiments. Furthermore, the adjoint method is shown to be of excellent convergence and efficiency, which is adaptive to the fast development of air quality numerical models and super computers.

关键词： optimum planning, industrial pollutant sources, adjoint equation, penalty function, gradient.

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Variations of near-surface atmospheric CO_(2.and H_(2.O concentrations during summer on Muztagata

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第1期49卷 18-26页

作者： XU Baiqing1,2. YAO Tandong1,2. LU Anxin2. GUO Xuejun, LIU Xianqin2.& LI Zhen2.1. Laboratory of Environment and Process on Tibetan Plateau, institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 100085,{2. 2. Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment, Jointly Established by Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engi-neering Research institute and institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, chinese academy of sciences and chinese academy of Meteorological sciences,{2. Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730000,{2. 1. Laboratory of Environment and Process on Tibetan Plateau Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100085 China 2. Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment Jointly Established by Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou 730000 China

Expeditions during the summers of 2.02.and 2.03 implemented continuous monitoring of near-surface (2.m height) atmospheric CO2.and H2. concentrations at the 4500 m elevation on Muztagata. The resultant data sets reveal a slight decrease of CO2.concentrations (of about 5 μmol·mol?1) and changes in the diurnal variations from the end of June to the middle August. The daily maximum CO2.concentrations occur between 02.30―05:30 AM (local time) and the minimum levels occur between 12.00―15:30 PM. The atmospheric CO2.concentrations in the summer of 2.02.were around 5 μmol·mol?1 lower than those during the same period of 2.03, whereas the diurnal amplitude was higher. In contrast, we found that the daily mean atmospheric H2. content in 2.03 was much lower than that in 2.02.and there exists a striking negative correlation between CO2.and H2. con-centrations. We therefore suggest that the near-surface atmospheric CO2.concentration is affected not only by photosynthesis and respiration, but also by the air H2. content in the glaciated region around Muztagata.

关键词： atmospheric CO2 and H2. concentration, continuous monitoring, glaciation region, Muztagata.

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Strengthening of the boreal winter Hadley circulation and its connection with ENSO

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第11期17卷 1327-1333页

作者： Ma Jie1,2.and Li Jianping2.1. College of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000,{2. 2. LASG, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002.,{2.) College of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is carried out for the year-to-year variability of the boreal winter (DJF) mass stream function of the mean meridional circulation (MMC) during the period 1948—2.05. The results demonstrate that it is dominated by the equatorially asymmetric and symmetric modes. Further analysis shows that the former mode is linked with the boreal winter Hadley cell mainly on the decadal time-scale, and the latter on the interannual time-scale. The asymmetric mode index (AMI) with a clear upward trend contributes to the decadal strengthening of the boreal Hadley circulation, and is closely correlated with the tropical SST warming, especially in the region of Indo-west Pacific warm pool (INWP). Furthermore, the AMI also contributes to the abrupt change of the correlation coefficient between the boreal Hadley circulation and ENSO after 1976. The symmetric mode index (SMI) with robust and stable linkage with ENSO shows a significant interannual variability, suggesting that the variability of the Hadley circulation is mainly associated with ENSO on the interannual time-scale.

关键词： the Hadley circulation interannual time-scale decadal time-scale

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The statistical characteristics of the atmospheric water over tropical western Pacific ' warm pool' during TOGA COARE IOP

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chinese Science Bulletin 1997年第12期42卷 1005-1009页

作者： WEI Chong and XUAN Yuejianinstitute of atmospheric {2., chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences Fkijing China

THIS note gives the statistical analyses of continuous measurements with high time resolution(5 min)of atmospheric water(including precipitable water vapor,vertically path-integratedcloud liquid water content and rain intensity)over the tropical western Pacific at a fixed point(2.S,158°E)during TOGA COARE IOP(1992.11—1993-02..Some comparisons are madebetween these statistical results and those of the measurments obtained during previous meteo-

关键词： microwave remote sensing western Pacific ’ warm pool’ cloud liquid water water vapor tropical precipitation.

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Numerical simulation of Meiyu front and the diagnosis of moist vorticity vector

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第11期17卷 1341-1347页

作者： Ping Fan1,2.and Luo Zhexian2.1. institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing {2., china 2. Nanjing University of Information sciences & Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china) institute of atmospheric {2. Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nanjing University of Information sciences & Technology Nanjing 210044 China

Moist vorticity vector is introduced to study the development and evolution of mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Meiyu front precipitation with the Advanced Regional Predication System (ARPS). In this study, the heavy rainfall is simulated to investigate the genesis, development and dissipation of middle scale convective vortex, which occurred from 0000 UTC 3 July to 12.0 UTC 5 July over the Jianghuai River valley. Moist vorticity vector (MVV) has zonal, radial and vertical components in its 3D spatial distribution. The simulation shows that the vertical component of moist vorticity vector well demonstrates the spatial distribution characteristics of middle scale convective vortex, especially in the process of Meiyu front precipitation. Diagnosis upon zonal, radial averaged and mass-integrated quantities of MVV shows that its vertical component and the surface precipitating ratio are in phase with a correlation coefficient of 0.68, indicating that the vertical component of MVV is closely associated with the Meiyu front precipitation. In addition, the tendency of the vertical component of MVV is mainly determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal and radial gradient of condensational or depositional heating.

关键词： moist vorticity vector mesoscale convective vortex Meiyu front precipitation

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Seasonal variation of global stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第12期17卷 1466-1475页

作者： Guo Dong1,2. Lu Daren2.and Sun Zhaobo1(1. institute of atmospheric {2., Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 2. LAGEO, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china) institute of atmospheric {2. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China LAGEO Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

By Wei formula in pressure coordinate, the stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange (STME) is diagnosed globally for 44 years from 1958 to 2.01 using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis datasets. Regions of mass flux into the stratosphere are found over Indonesia, bay of Bangladesh and the mid-west coast of South Africa. Compensating mass outflow from the stratosphere appears mainly over mid-latitudes near large-scale troughs. Upward and downward transport of mass at the middle and high latitudes accompany with each other. Mass flux into troposphere is stronger in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. Strong downward mass flux into the troposphere occurs in eastern Asia the whole year with nearly stable sites. Although the area of eastern Asia accounts for only 5.6% of that of the northern hemisphere (NH), its net mass exchange reaches 15.83% of that of the NH, which means that research on STME of eastern Asia is greatly important to that of the NH and even the global areas. Air across the tropopause enters more from stratosphere to troposphere than that from troposphere to stratosphere, which is possibly related with systematic bias of the assimilated datasets and with persistent rise of the tropopause height. Contributions of the mass exchange and the mass flux exchange in the NH and southern hemisphere (SH) on their latitudes increase from equator to pole, with larger contributions in the NH. Mass exchange and mass flux exchange per areas at high latitudes are larger than that at low latitudes, which means greater mass exchange efficiency at high latitudes.

关键词： stratosphere troposphere mass exchange seasonal variation.

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