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Some evidence of drying trend over northern china from 1951 to 2.04

chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第23期51卷 2913-2925页

作者： MA Zhuguo1,2.& FU Congbin1,2.1. key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia, chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2. START {2. Center for temperate east asia, institute of Atmos-pheric physics, chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China START regional Center for temperate {2. asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over china were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern china in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern china was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest china and the central part of North china since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2. During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest china and the central part of North china in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast china, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern china, the western part of Northwest china is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest china, the central part of North china and Northeast china since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.

关键词：中国北方干燥趋向干旱索引气候背景

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Correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation Index in winter and eastern china Flood/Drought Index in summer in the last 530 years

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chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第21期50卷 2505-2516页

作者： FU Congbin & ZENG Zhaomei key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese Academy of sciences START {2. Center for temperate east asia, beijing 10002., china key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 China

The time series of winter North Atlantic Oscil-lation Index (NAOI) in the period of 142.-1983 developed by Glueck and summer Flood/Drought Index (FDI) of eastern china in the period of 1470-1999 from 100 stations are used in this paper to study the potential impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the {2. in china. The analysis has ex-plored some significant lag correlations between FDI and NAOI. The maximum positive correlation coefficients be-tween NAOI and area-mean FDI in eastern and northern china lagging 2.3 years reach at 0.001 significance level, and while there are also negative correlation between NAOI and FDI in central and southern china at significance level of 0.05-0.01. The correlation between FDI and NAOI is time-dependent, i.e. the correlation coefficients between two indices vary from period to period. The highest correlation appeared in the period of 1636-1742. around the Little Ice Age, with the significant level of far above 0.001. The second significant period was from 1951 to 1999, at the level of 0.005-0.002. Both the power spectrum analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation have presented an interesting phe-nomenon: the area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern china share almost the same oscillation periods with NAOI in the inter-annual, decadal and centurial scales’ oscillations, i.e. 4-5, about 10, 2.-30, around 50 and 80-100 years, etc. The Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic test reveals the significant trend and decadal abrupt changes in the series of area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern china in the past 530 years, while the NAOI in the past 400 years, did not show such trend at the significance level, but presented more frequent changes than those of FDI in china. This difference is per-haps due to the fact that the amplitude of the extremes of reconstructed NAOI series is less than that from instrumen-tal records.

关键词：中国洪水干旱气候变化大西洋振动系数

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Water-vapor source shift of Xinjiang region during the recent twenty years

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第5期17卷 569-575页

作者： Dai Xingang , Li Weijing , Ma Zhuguo and Wang Ping (key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 10002.,{12. laboratory for climate Change, chinese Meteorological Administration, beijing 100081,{12.) [a]key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [b]laboratory for climate Change {2. Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The aim of this paper is to investigate the climate water-vapor sources of Xinjiang region and their shifts during the past 2. years. First, the principle and steps are roughly regulated to seek the water-vapor sources. Second, the climate stationary water-vapor transport in troposphere is calculated to distinguish where the water vapor comes from by ERA-40 reanalysis. In addition, the collocation between the transport and the {2. column water vapor content is analyzed. The results show that the major vapor comes from the west side of Xinjiang for mid-month of seasons, apart from July while the water vapor comes from the north or northwest direction. The water vapor sources are different for different seasons, for example, the Caspian Sea and Mediterranean are the sources in January and April, the North Atlantic and the Arctic sea in July, and the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in October, respectively. In recent ten years more water vapor above Xinjiang comes from the high latitudes and the Arctic sea with global warming, and less from Mediterranean in comparison with the case of 1973—1986. In fact, the air over subtropics becomes dry and the anomalous water vapor transport direction turns to west or southwest during 1987—2.00. By contrast, the air over middle and high latitudes is warmer and wetter than 14 years ago.

关键词： global warming water-vapor source water-vapor transport precipitable water Xinjiang climate inter-decadal change.

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Inertial theory of the mean Hadley circulation under the condition of nonstatic equilibrium

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 546-553页

作者： CHAO Jiping1 & LIU Fei2.3 1. National Marine environmental Forecasting Center, beijing 100081,{2. 2. key laboratory regional climate-environment for temperate east asia, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 10002.,{2. 3. Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 100049,{2. 1. National Marine environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China 2. key laboratory regional climate-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 3. Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Tropical atmosphere is divided into two layers, the layer near the ground is the planet boundary layer, where the motion is linear, if the radiation equilibrium temperature is given at the top of the boundary layer, the vertical motion there can be obtained. It is the non-viscous ideal atmos- pheric layer above the boundary one, where the motion is nonlinear. After getting the conservation laws of angular momentum, potential temperature and potential vortex, the inertial theory of the Hadley circulation driven by the vertical motion of the boundary layer is established, followed by sev- eral examples of its application.

关键词： Hadley circulation, inertial theory, conservation laws of angular momentum, potential temperature and potential vortex.

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Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on {2.n summer monsoon evolution

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chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第35期57卷 4617-4626页

作者： ZHANG Ran 1,JIANG DaBang 1,2,3,LIU XiaoDong 4 & TIAN ZhiPing 2,5 1 climate Change Research Center,chinese Academy of sciences,beijing 10002.,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese Academy of sciences,beijing 10002.,china 3 key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for temperate east asia,chinese Academy of sciences,beijing 10002.,china 4 State key laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth environment,chinese Academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075,china 5 Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china 1. climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 3. key laboratory of {2. climate-environment Research for temperate east asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 4. State key laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi’an 710075 China 5. Graduate University of chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National Center for atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of asian summer *** results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South asian summer monsoon and northern east asian summer monsoon *** is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern east asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern east *** with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of asian monsoons.

关键词：青藏高原隆升喜马拉雅亚洲季风高原气候夏季季风次区域隆起演化建模

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regional soil moisture simulation for Shaanxi Province using SWAT model validation and trend analysis

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Science china Earth sciences 2010年第4期53卷 575-590页

作者： LI MingXing1,2.MA ZhuGuo1 & DU JiWen3 1 key laboratory of {2. climate-environment Research for temperate east asia,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese Academy of {12.,beijing 10002.,china 2.Graduate University of chinese Academy of {12.,beijing 100049,china 3 Shaanxi Administration of Meteorology,Xi’an 710014,china 1. key laboratory of {2. climate-environment Research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China3. Shaanxi Administration of Meteorology Xi’an 710014 China

The soil moisture in Shaanxi Province,a region with complex topography,is simulated using the distributed hydrological model Soil Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Comparison and contrast of modeled and observed soil moisture show that the SWAT model can reasonably simulate the long-term trend in soil moisture and the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture in the *** to NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalysis of soil moisture show that the trend of variability in soil moisture simulated by SWAT is more consistent with the *** model results suggested that high soil moisture in surface soil layers appears in the southern Shaanxi with high vegetation cover,and the Qinling mountainous region with frequent orographic *** deeper soil layers,high soil moisture appears in the river basins and *** regional soil moisture showed a generally decreasing trend on all soil layers from 1951 to 2.04,with a stronger and significant decreasing trend in deeper soil layers,especially in the northern parts of the province.

关键词： SWAT soil moisture content simulation validation trend analysis

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Spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time in chinese forests

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中国科学：地球科学英文版 2010年第8期53卷 1229-1240页

作者： ZHOU Tao1,2. SHI PeiJun1,2. JIA GenSuo3, LI XiuJuan1,2.& LUO YiQi4 1 State key laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, {2. Normal University, {2. 100875, china 2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, {2. 100875, china 3 key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for {12. east asia, chinese Academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 4 Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA 1. State key laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education Beijing 100875 China3. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China4. Department of Botany and Microbiology University of Oklahoma Norman OK 73019 USA

Capacity of carbon sequestration in forest ecosystem largely depends on the trend of net primary production (NPP) and the length of ecosystem carbon residence time. Retrieving spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time is important and necessary for accurately predicting regional carbon cycles in the future. In this study, a data-model fusion method that combined a process-based regional carbon model (TECO-R) with various ground-based ecosystem observations (NPP, biomass, and soil organic carbon) and auxiliary data sets (NDVI, meteorological data, and maps of vegetation and soil texture) was applied to estimate spatial patterns of ecosystem carbon residence time in {2. forests at steady state. In the data-model fusion, the genetic algorithm was used to estimate the optimal model parameters related with the ecosystem carbon residence time by minimizing total deviation between modeled and observed values. The results indicated that data-model fusion technology could effectively retrieve model parameters and simulate carbon cycling processes for {2. forest ecosystems. The estimated carbon residence times were highly heterogenous over china, with most of regions having values between 2. and 70 years. The deciduous needleleaf forest and the evergreen needleleaf forest had the highest averaged carbon residence times (73.8 and 71.3 years, respectively), the mixed forest and the deciduous broadleaf forest had moderate values (38.1 and 37.3 years, respectively), and the evergreen broadleaf forest had the lowest value (31.7 years). The averaged carbon residence time of forest ecosystems in china was 57.8 years.

关键词： carbon residence time carbon cycle forest ecosystem data-model fusion inverse modeling genetic algorithm

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A quasi-geostrophic wavelet-spectrum model for barotropic atmosphere and its numerical solution

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2004年第11期 48-54页

作者： DAI Xingang 1,2*, WANG Ping 3 and CHOU Jifan 2 (1. key laboratory of regional climate-environment for temperate east asia, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese Academy of sciences, START regional Center for temperate east asia, beijing 10002., china 2. Department of atmospheric sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 3. College of physics, Peking University, beijing 100871, china) keylaboratoryof{2.climate-environmentfortemperateeastasia InstituteofAtmosphericPhysicsChineseAcademyofSciencesSTARTRegionalCenterforTemperateEastAsiaBeijing100029China Collegeofphysics PekingUniversity.Beijing100871China Departmentofatmosphericsciences LanzhouUniversityLanzhou730000.China

A quasi-geostrophic wavelet-spectrum model of barotropic atmosphere has been constructed by wavelet-Galerkin method with the periodic orthogonal wavelet bases. In this study a wavelet grid-spectrum transform method is designed to decrease the tremendous computation of the nonlinear interaction term in the model, and a two-dimensional Helmholtz equation from the model in a wavelet spectrum form is derived, and a solution with high precision under the periodic boundary condition is obtained. The numerical investigation manifests that the wavelet-spectrum model (WSM) could keep on running for a long time under the forcing of heating and topography. Although its numerical solution is compatible with the grid model (GM), the WSM is of a higher precision and faster convergence rate than GM's. A stationary solution comes forth when the model is forced only by the surface heating, whereas a quasi-periodic oscillation with a period about 15 days appears as considering the topography in the model. The latter oscillation, to some extent, is very similar to the Rossby index cycle of atmosphere over middle and high latitudes.

关键词： plane barotropic atmosphere wavelet-spectrum model wavelet grid-spectrum transform.

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Natural interdecadal weakening of east asian summer monsoon in the late 2.th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2.& WANG Huijun1 1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese Academy of {2., beijing 10002., china 2. key laboratory of regional climate-environment Research for Tem-perate east asia, chinese Academy of {2., beijing 10002., china

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2.02.as derived from the United States National Centers for environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmos-pheric Research, it is revealed that east {2.n summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 2.th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2.greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for climate Prediction and Research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 2.st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 2.th century.

关键词： east asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

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Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960-2.08

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Science Bulletin 2012年第Z1期 278-288页

作者： QIAN Cheng1,YAN ZhongWei1* & FU CongBin1,2.1 key laboratory of {2. climate-environment for temperate east asia,institute of atmospheric physics,chinese Academy of {12.,beijing 10002.,china 2.institute for climate and Global Change Research,School of atmospheric {12.,Nanjing University,Nanjing 2.0093,china

The temperature thresholds and timings of the 2. climatic Solar Terms in china are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2.08 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition *** in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are *** results show that in terms of the mean situation over china,the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased,especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years(1998-2.07) compared with in the *** number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the *** timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period(around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d,especially by 15 d for Rain Water,while those during the cooling period(around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5-6 *** characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global ***,the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents,more prominently in the spring than in the *** warming tendencies for Rain Water,the Beginning of Spring,and the Waking of Insects are the largest,2.43?C,2.37?C,and 2.2.?C,respectively,for the period 1961-2.07 in china as a *** particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms,namely the Waking of Insects,Pure Brightness,Grain Full,and Grain in Ear,are found to have advanced almost *** semi-arid zones in northern china,advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant,12.16,4-8,4-8,and 8-12.d,respectively,for the period *** quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation,especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.

关键词： Twenty-four Solar Terms climate change ensemble empirical mode decomposition human adaptation

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