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Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. department of atmospheric {2., {3. University, lanzhou 73.000, china 2. Training Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china department of atmospheric {2. Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Training Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.

Three-dimensional decomposition method of global atmospheric circulation

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第3期51卷 386-402页

作者： LIU HaiTao1,2.3. HU ShuJuan4, XU Ming5 & CHOU JiFan6,7 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100049, china 3.Beijing Climate Center, Beijing 100089, china 4 department of Mathematics, lanzhou University,{13., china 5 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 2.003., china 6 department of atmospheric sciences, lanzhou University,{13., china 7 china Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100089, china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing China Beijing Climate Center Beijing China department of Mathematics Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai China department of atmospheric {2. Lanzhou University Lanzhou China china Meteorological Administration Training Center Beijing China

By adopting the idea of three-dimensional Walker, Hadley and Rossby stream functions, the global atmospheric circulation can be considered as the sum of three stream functions from a global perspective. Therefore, a m... 详细信息

关键词： three-dimensional decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation generalized Walker Hadley and Rossby stream functions existence and uniqueness vertical motion

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO_2.on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature's trend prediction

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Science china Earth sciences 2004年第z1期47卷 131-141页

作者： LI Dongliang, QUO Hui, WANG Wen & WEI LiCold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, lanzhou 73.000, china {2. of {3. sciences, lanzhou University, lanzhou 73.000, china Cold & Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Science Lanzhou China department of atmospheric {2. Lanzhou University Lanzhou China

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 193. to 2.00 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2., and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2., respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93., 108a, 2.5a and 2.5a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 2.st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 2.st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2.concentration, Trw in the 2.st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 2.st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.2.℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3.1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.

关键词： Qinghai-Xizang railway, annual mean air temperature, sunspot cycle length (SCL), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2., prediction.

Computational stability of the forced dissipative nonlinear atmospheric equations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1999年第10期44卷 949-952页

作者： LI Jianping and CHOU Jifan LASG , Institute of atmospheric Physics , Chinese Academy of sciences , Beijing 100080,{2. {3. of atmospheric sciences , lanzhou University , lanzhou 73.000,{2. Beijing Meteorological College, Beijing 100081,{2. LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China department of atmospheric {2. Lanzhou University Lanzhou China Beijing Meteorological College Beijing China

A new concept of computational quasi-stability (CQS) is introduced to study the computational stability (CS) of the forced dissipative nonlinear (FDN) evolution equations. Based on the concept, the CQS criterion of difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations is obtained. So it provides the theoretical basis for designing the computational stable difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations.

关键词： computational stability (CS) computational quasi-stability (CQS) operator equation difference scheme forced dissipative nonlinear (FDN) equations.

Debating about the climate warming

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第1期16卷 1-6页

作者： WANG Shaowu1, LUO Yong2. ZHAO Zongci2. DONG Wenje2.and YANG Bao3.(1.{3. of atmospheric {2., School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, china 2. Laboratory for Climate Studies, china Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, china 3. Institute of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering, Chinese Academy of {2., lanzhou 73.000, china) department of atmospheric {2. School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2. All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3. The warming from 1975 to 2.00 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.

关键词： climate warming MWP LIA the 2.th century.

Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第5期49卷 554-560页

作者： FAN Ke1,2.3.& WANG Huijun2.1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of {3., Beijing 10002.,{2. 2. department of atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091,{2. 3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of {3., Beijing 100049,{2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China department of atmospheric Science Yunnan University Kunming China Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing China

The interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and its influence on East Asian climate during both boreal winter and spring are addressed. The results show that the positive AAO anomaly decreases the cold activity over East Asia during both boreal winter and spring. AAO-related barotropic meridional teleconnection from Antarctic to Arctic is found through analysis of mean me- ridional circulations. This meridional teleconnection is remarkable over Eurasia during boreal winter and over the Pacific Ocean during boreal spring. The results also show that zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in Southern Hemisphere has well positive correlation with that of Eurasia during boreal winter and has negative correlation with Pacific North American teleconnection (PNA) during boreal spring, which again display the meridional teleconnection. Thus, local meridional teleconnection is a possible linkage for interaction of circulations at mid-high latitudes between both hemispheres.

关键词： Antarctic Oscillation, Eurasian west wind, meridional teleconnection, mean meridional circulation.

Operator constraint principle for simplifying atmospheric dynamical equations

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第12期46卷 1053-1056页

作者： LI Jianping & CHOU Jifan1. National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china 2. department of atmospheric sciences, lanzhou University, lanzhou 73.000, china National Key Laboratory of atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences department of atmospheric {2. Lanzhou University

Based on the qualitative theory of atmospheric dynamical equations, a new method for simplifying equations, the operator constraint principle, is presented. The general rule of the method and its mathematical strictness are discussed. Moreover, the way that how to use the method to simplify equations rationally and how to get the simplified equations with harmonious and consistent dynamics is given.

关键词： simplification operator equation operator constraint principle.

Two possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第2期49卷 202-211页

作者： LUO Zhexian2. ZHOU Xiuji1 & GAO Shouting3.1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences, Beijing 100081, china 2. {2. of Space Information Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 3. Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 10002., china department of Environmental Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Chinese Academy of Meteorological sciences Beijing China Institute of atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The vortex self-organization is investigated in this paper by four groups of numerical experiments within the framework of quasi-geostrophic model, and based on the experimental results two types of possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization are suggested. The meso-scale to-pography may enable separated vortices to merge into a larger scale vortex; and the interaction of meso-γ and meso-β scale systems may make separated vortices to self organize a typhoon-like vor-tex circulation.

关键词： vortex, self-organization, meso-scale topography, interaction of different scales.

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

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Science Bulletin 2006年第1期51卷 80-88页

作者： Lü Junmei1,2.4, ZHANG Qingyun1, TAO Shiyan1 & JU Jianhua3.1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric Sci- ences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of {2., Beijing 10002., china 2. department of atmospheric sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, china 3. china Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, china 4. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of {2., Beijing 10003., china State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China department of atmospheric {2. Yunnan University Kunming 650091 China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China china Meteorological Administration Training Centre Beijing 100081 China

Based on the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from National Oceanic and At- mospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites, the Cli- mate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of pre- cipitation (CMAP) data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for At- mospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the mean intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated by using power spectrum analysis, band-pass filter, and diagnostic analyses. The processes of the onset and advance of monsoon over the southern part of Indo- china Peninsula, the east coast of Bay of Bengal, the South china Sea and the Indian subcontinent are explored. It is found that there is an abrupt change in OLR, precipitation and zonal wind during the onset and advance of the ASM. It is also indicated that the southern part of Indo{2. Peninsula and the adja- cent Andaman Sea is the region where the earliest onset of the ASM occurs in the 2.d pentad of May.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability onset advance.