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An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2.1. National meteorological Center, beijing 100081,{2. 2. chinese academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china National meteorological Center Beijing China chinese academy of {2. {3. Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2.02. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). Parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern Pacific and the South china Sea in 2.00, including the 2.—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

^(40)Ar/^(3.)Ar dating of shear deformation of the Xianshuihe fault zone in west Sichuan and its tectonic significance

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Science china Earth sciences 2004年第9期47卷 794-803页

作者： ZHANG Yueqiao1, CHEN Wen2. 3.& YANG Nong1 1. Institute of Geomechanics, chinese academy of Geological {2., beijing 100081, china 2. Institute of Geology, chinese academy of Geological {2., beijing 10003., china 3. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, chinese academy of {2., beijing 10002., china Institute of Geomechanics Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geology Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on field geological survey, structural measurements and classical Ar/Ar dating of mica, biotite and K-feldspar, we obtain cooling ages for Miocene left-lateral shear along the Xianshuihe fault zone. The results document two thermal events during the sinistral shear. The early event (12.10 Ma) corresponds to rapid cooling of the Zheduoshan granitic massif from above 700℃ to below 3.0℃. The late event (5-3.5 Ma) corresponds to cooling of granites intruded along the eastern side of the fault zone. These dating results provide important thermochronological constraint on the timing of late Cenozoic eastward extrusion of the Chuan-Dian Block in the SE Tibetan margin.

关键词： Xianshuihe fault zone, Zheduoshan granitic massif, sinistral shear deformation, 40Ar/3.Ar dating, late Cenozoic.

Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1021-1035页

作者： LIU YunYun1,2.3.& DING YiHui2.1 chinese {3. of {2. sciences, beijing 100081, china 2.National Climate Center, beijing 100081, china 3.Graduate University of chinese {3. of sciences, beijing 100049, china chinese academy of {2. {3. Beijing China National Climate Center Beijing China Graduate University of chinese academy of {2. Beijing China

Based on the Indian and chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern china. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South china Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion

关键词： Indian summer monsoon (ISM) the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley teleconnection mode

Two possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第2期49卷 202-211页

作者： LUO Zhexian2. ZHOU Xiuji1 & GAO Shouting3.1. chinese academy of {2. sciences, beijing 100081, china 2. Department of Space Information Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china Department of Environmental Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China chinese academy of {2. {3. Beijing China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The vortex self-organization is investigated in this paper by four groups of numerical experiments within the framework of quasi-geostrophic model, and based on the experimental results two types of possible mechanisms for vortex self-organization are suggested. The meso-scale to-pography may enable separated vortices to merge into a larger scale vortex; and the interaction of meso-γ and meso-β scale systems may make separated vortices to self organize a typhoon-like vor-tex circulation.

关键词： vortex, self-organization, meso-scale topography, interaction of different scales.

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2. DING Yihui3.& ZHANG Renhe2.1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.0044, china 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), {2. academy of meteorological sciences, beijing 100081, china 3. National Climate Center, {2. meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, china Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate Center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-china Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-china Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-china Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-china Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-china Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-china Peninsula to South china Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-china Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Based on Support Vector Machine

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Wuhan University Journal of Natural sciences 2006年第4期11卷 897-900页

作者： YUAN Lifeng 1, 2., ZHANG Youshui 3. 1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, chinese academy of {2., Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, china 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of {2., beijing 100049, china 3. Institute of Geographical {2. and Natural Resources Research, chinese academy of {2., beijing 100101, china Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041 Sichuan China ***

Seven factors, including the maximum volume of once flow , occurrence frequency of debris flow , watershed area , main channel length , watershed relative height difference , valley incision density and the length ratio of sediment supplement are chosen as evaluation factors of debris flow hazard degree. Using support vector machine （SVM） theory, we selected 2.9 basic data of 3. debris flow channels in Yunnan Province as learning samples in this study. We create a debris flow hazard assessment model based on SVM. The model was validated though instance applications and showed encouraging results.

关键词： debris flow hazard assessment support vector machine (SVM)

SHRIMP zircon U-Pb geochronology of early Mesozoic felsic igneous rocks from the southern Lancangjiang and its tectonic implications

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Science china Earth sciences 2006年第10期49卷 1032-1042页

作者： PENG Touping1,2. WANG Yuejun1, FAN Weiming1, LIU Dunyi3. SHI Yuruo3.& MIAO Laicheng4 1. Key Laboratory of Isotope Geochronology and Geochemistry, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, chinese academy of {2., Guangzhou 510640, china 2. Graduate University of chinese academy of {2., beijing 10003., china 3. SHRIMP isotope Laboratory, chinese academy of Geological {2., beijing 10003., china 4. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, chinese academy of {2., beijing 10002., china Key Laboratory of Isotope Geochronology and Geochemistry Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou China Graduate University of chinese academy of {2. Beijing China SHRIMP isotope Laboratory Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The SHRIMP zircon U-Pb geochronology of three typical samples, including two monzo nitic granites from the Lincang batholith and a rhyolite from the Manghuai Formation are presented in the southern Lancangjiang, western Yunnan Province. The analyses of zircons for the biotite monzonitic granites from the northern (02.X-13.) and southern (2.JH-10) Lincang batholith show the single and tight clusters on the concordia, and yield the weighted mean 2.6Pb/2.8U ages of 2.9.4 ± 3.0 Ma and 2.0.4 ± 3.6 Ma, respectively, representing the crystallized ages of these granites. The zircons for the rhyolitic sample (02.X-95) from the Manghuai Formation give a weighted mean 2.6Pb/2.8U age of 2.1.0 ± 5.0 Ma. These data suggest that the igneous rocks from the Lincang granitic batholith and Manghuai Formation have a similar crystallized age. In combination with other data, it is inferred that both were generated at a narrow age span (~2.0 Ma) and were originated from the postcollisional tectonic regime. An early Proterozoic 2.6Pb/2.8U apparent age of 1977±44 Ma is additionally obtained from one zircon from the biotite monzonitic granite (southern Lincang batholith), indicative of devel- opment of the early Proterozoic Yangtze basement in the region. These precisely geochronological data provide important constraints on better understanding the Paleozoic tectonic evolution of the Tethys, western Yunnan Province.

关键词： SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating, Middle Triassic, Lincang granitic batholith, Manghuai Formation rhyolite, southern Lancangjiang.

Spectral analysis of quasi-stationary sea surface topography from GRACE mission

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第11期48卷 2040-2048页

作者： ZHANG Zizhan1,2.& LU Yang1,3.1. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, chinese academy of {2., Wuhan 43.077, china 2. Graduate School of the chinese academy of {2., beijing 10003., china 3. Unite Center for Astro-geodymics Research, chinese academy of {2., Shanghai 2.003., china Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China Graduate School of the chinese academy of {2. Beijing China Unite Center for Astro-geodymics Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai China

During the last two decades satellite altimetry has offered an abundance of meas-urements of the sea surface resulting in the improvement of global mean sea surface height (MSSH) and marine geoid determination. On the other hand, with the launching of new genera-tion gravity satellites, some high accuracy long-wavelength gravity models are available. These breakthroughs give us a great opportunity for new estimation of quasi-stationary sea surface topography (QSST). In this paper, the new gravity model GGM01C derived from GRACE mission is briefly presented, and a new global high precision and high-resolution QSST is determined based on the GGM01C model and the global MSSH. The spectral features of the QSST esti-mated by GGM01C and EGM96 gravity model to degree/order 2.0 are discussed by spectral analysis. As a result, the QSST is mainly composed of long waves, medium waves partially and short waves scarcely, its power spectral structures are different between the zonal direction and the meridional direction, there are great differences between the two models, which maybe ex-plain why the ocean currents derived from the two gravity models by Tapley show different pat-terns.

关键词： quasi-stationary sea surface topography, mean sea surface height, GGM01, fast Fourier transform, spectral analysis

Application of the moist vorticity vector in the analysis of a heavy rainfall event in North china

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2007年第12期17卷 1457-1465页

作者： Zhao Yu1,2.3. Wang Jianguo4 and Xue Deqiang2.1. Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese {3. of {2., beijing 10002., china 2. Shandong Provincial meteorological Observatory, Jinan 2.003., china 3. Graduate University of chinese {3. of {2., beijing 10003., china 4. Shandong Provincial meteorological Bureau, Jinan 2.003., china) Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Shandong Provincial meteorological Observatory Jinan 250031 China Graduate University of chinese academy of {2. Beijing 100039 China Shandong Provincial meteorological Bureau Jinan 250031 China

The moist vorticity vector (MVV), defined as (ζa×▽qv)/ρ introduced by Gao et al. is used to study a heavy rainfall event in North china. The MVV has zonal, meridional and vertical components in a three-dimensional framework. Analysis of domain-mean and mass-integrated quantities shows that the variation of the vertical component of the MVV closely follows the variation of the cloud hydrometeors, with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.95, indicating that the vertical component of the MVV is strongly associated with midlatitude convection. Further analysis shows that the vertical component of the MVV reflects the interaction between the horizontal vorticity and the horizontal specific humidity gradient, which can associate dynamic and thermodynamic processes with cloud microphysical processes. Thus, this study can help to understand how the interaction between circulations and clouds aids the development of convection, and the MVV can be used to trace the development and evolution of heavy rainfall.

关键词： moist vorticity vector heavy rainfall modeling study.