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Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

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Wuhan university Journal of Natural sciences 2007年第4期12卷 669-676页

作者： ZHANG Ji1,2.YU Sujun3.. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process,chinese academy of {2./Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,chinese academy of {2.,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,china 2. Graduate university of the chinese academy of {2.,{13. 100049,china 3. School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong university,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,china Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process Chinese Academy ofSciences/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu 610041Sichuan China

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.

关键词： blind number theory groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation risk analysis

A new class of symmetric periodic solutions of the spatial elliptic restricted three-body problem

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Science china(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2009年第9期52卷 1404-1413页

作者： XU XingBo1,2.& FU YanNing1 1 Purple Mountain Observatory, chinese academy of {2., Nanjing 2.0008, china 2.Graduate university of chinese academy of {2., beijing 10003., china 1. Purple Mountain Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing 210008 China 2. Graduate university of chinese {2. of sciences Beijing 100039 China

We show that there exists a new class of symmetric periodic solutions of the spatial elliptic restricted three-body problem. In such a solution, the infinitesimal body is confined to the vicinity of a primary and moves on a nearly circular orbit. This orbit is almost perpendicular to the orbital plane of the primaries, where the line of symmetry of the orbit lies. The existence is shown by applying a corollary of Arenstorf's fixed point theorem to a periodicity equation system of the problem. And this existence doesn't require any restriction on the mass ratio of the primaries, nor on the eccentricity of their relative elliptic orbit. Potential relevance of this new class of periodic solutions to real celestial body systems and the follow-up studies in this respect are also discussed.

关键词： periodic orbits spatial restricted three-body problem symmetric orbits averaging

Some key technics of drop tower experiment device of National Microgravity Laboratory (china) (NMLC)

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Science china(Technological sciences) 2005年第3期48卷 305-316页

作者： ZHANG Xiaoqian 1 , YUAN Longgen 1 , WU Wendong 1 , TIAN Lanqiao 2.& YAO Kangzhuang 2.1. Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, chinese {3. of {2., beijing 100080, china 2. Institute of Mechanics, chinese {3. of {2., beijing 100080, china 1. Institute of Engineering Thermophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences 100080 Beijing China 2. Institute of Mechanics Chinese Academy of Sciences 100080 Beijing China

Drop tower is an important ground based facility for microgravity science experiment. The technical performances of the drop tower NMLC are advanced compared with similar facilities in the US, Germany and Japan. The main components such as drop capsule, deceleration devices, release mechanism present its advantages and creativities.

关键词： drop tower facility,drop capsule,deceleration devices,release mechanism.

Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第7期51卷 984-991页

作者： ZHANG YuJin1,2.& ZHOU GuangSheng1 1 State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, chinese academy of {2., beijing 100093. china 2.Graduate university of chinese academy of {2., beijing 100049, china 1. State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100093 China 2. Graduate university of chinese {2. of sciences Beijing 100049 China

In terms of chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2.and SRES-B2. in{3. from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast{3. Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern{3. (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.

关键词： driving mechanism vegetation terrestrial transect climatic change plant functional types

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North china using the year-to-year increment approach

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Science china Earth sciences 2009年第4期52卷 532-539页

作者： FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2.& GAO YuZhong3.1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of {2., beijing 10002., china 2.Graduate university of the chinese academy of {2., beijing 100049, china 3.Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 15003., china Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate university of the chinese {2. of {3. Beijing 100049 China Heilongjiang Meteorological Administ

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North china in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North china in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The prediction model makes a hindcast for {3.00-{3.07, with an average relative root mean square error of {3.% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North china during 1965-{3.06. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North china. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.

关键词： annual increment North china precipitation prediction prediction skill

“Double dawn”eclipse and the rotational variation of the earth

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chinese Science Bulletin 2000年第11期45卷 988-991页

作者： ZHANG Peiyu & HAN Yanben1. Purple Mountain Observatory, chinese academy of {2., Nanjing 2.0008, china 2. beijing Astronomical Observatory, chinese academy of {2., beijing 100012. National Astronomical Observatory, chinese academy of {2., beijing 100012. china Purple Mountain Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing China beijing Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing National Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

A record of 'double dawn' at State Zheng in the first year of the reign of King Yi in Western Zhou Dynasty in the chronicle 'Bamboo Annals' (Zhushu Jinian) is discussed. We think that it may be a record of an annular solar eclipse happening in 899 BC. The record and the AT, which describes the secular variation of the earth’s rotation, are analyzed and discussed.

关键词： solar eclipse earth’s rotation.

Current status and future of acid rain in china

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chinese Science Bulletin 1997年第24期42卷 2076-2081页

作者： DING Guo’an, XU Xiaobing, FANG Xiumei, JIN Shaping, XU Xia, Tang Jie, LIU Qijun, WANG Shufeng and WANG Wenxing1. chinese academy of Meteorological {2., {3. 100081, china 2. chinese academy of Environment {2., {3. 100012. china chinese academy of Meteorological {2. Beijing 100081 China

As a part of the national key project of acid rain research, chemical element analysis of rainwater has been carried out based on observation of acid rain network in chinese MeteorologicalAdministration over the years of 1992.and 1993. Samples of precipitation collected from eachacid rain station were taken according to the standard established by chinese MeteorologicalAdministration. pH value was measured with pH meter (accuracy of 0. 01) made in

关键词： acid rain current status future.

Quaternary marine transgressions in eastern china

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Journal of Palaeogeography 2012年第2期1卷 105-125页

作者： Lin Jingxing1, 3. Dai Luping2. 3.1. Institute of Geology, chinese academy of Geological {2., beijing 10003., china 2. Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental {2., Institute of Oceanology, chinese academy of {2., Qingdao 2.6071, china 3. College of Earth Science, Graduate {13. of chinese academy of {2., beijing 100049, china Institute of Geology Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing 100037 China College of Earth Science Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology and Environmental sciences Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao 266071 China

Based on the data from 117 holes (9151 samples) and the research on ecology and palaeoecology of Foraminifera combined with that on Ostracoda, diatoms, pollen and spores, eight marine transgressions have been recognized in the great plain regions through the Quaternary sequences and two marine transgressions have been found since the Late Pleistocene in the coastal plain (bedrock coast) areas. In the North china Plain, these are in ascending order:the Bohai transgression in the Early Pleistocene, the Haixing and Huanghua transgressions in the Middle Pleistocene, the Baiyangdian and Cangzhou transgressions in the Late Pleistocene, and the Tianjin transgression in the Holocene. In the Yangtze River Delta region the Rugao and Zhoupu transgressions occurred in the Early Pleistocene, the Shanghai, Jiading, and Wangdian transgressions in the Middle Pleistocene, the Jiangyin and Ge Hu transgressions in the Late Pleistocene, and the Zhenjiang transgression in the Holocene. In the coastal plain (bedrock coast) areas of North china, the Cangzhou transgression was recorded in the Late Pleistocene and the Tianjin transgression in the Holocene, whereas in South china the Fuzhou transgression took place in the Late Pleistocene and the Changle transgression in the Holocene. The transgressions correspond to warm periods and regressions to cold periods. The younger transgressions were not only of shorter duration, but also of larger magnitude. These findings point to the existence of four flood event strata since the Middle Pleistocene: two in the late Middle Pleistocene and another two in the Late Pleistocene.

关键词： Quaternary marine transgressions palaeoclimate eastern china

Critical slope gradient for compulsory abandonment of farmland on the hilly Loess Plateau

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chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第5期43卷 409-412页

作者： TANG Keli+1, ZHANG Keli 1,2.and LEI Aling 1,3.1. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, chinese academy of {2., Yangling 712.00, china 2. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua university, beijing 100084, china 3. Water Resources C Institute of Soil and Water Conservation Chinese Academy of Sciences Yangling China Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University Beijing China Water Resources Conservation Bureau of Yangtze River Ministry of Water Resources Wuhan China

Scientific evidence for the upper limit of farmland is proposed. Shallow gully erosion is one of erosion types distributed extensively on sloping farmland in the hilly regions of the Loess Plateau. Field observation and aerial photos interpretation, as well as laboratory experiments show that the shallow gully erosion occurring on the steeper farmland in the hilly regions of the Loess Plateau is an important factor leading to intensive erosion on slope, because of its extensive distribution and intensive runoff collection. The data on the formation, development and distribution of shallow gullies on sloping farmland indicate that critical slope gradient for shallow gully initiation ranges from 15 to 2. degrees with an average of 18.2.degrees. Therefore, it is suggested that critical slope gradient for compulsory abandonment of farmland on the hilly Loess Plateau should be kept within the critical slope gradient for shallow gully initiation to prevent shallow gully formation in order to control soil loss more effectively. But as the first step, the cultivation on the slopes with slope larger than 2. degrees where the maximum erosion occurs should be strictly forbidden.

关键词： hilly region of Loess Plateau upper limitation for farmland shallow gully erosion erosion dynamic.