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Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china 2 National meteorological Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the Asian summer monsoon

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1001-1012页

作者： SUN JianQi1, YUAN Wei2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 china meteorological administration training centre, beijing 1.0081. china 3 Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150030, china Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China china meteorological administration training centre Beijing China Heilongjiang meteorological Observatory Harbin China

Using correlation and EOF analyses on sea level pressure from 57-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation (APNPO) is identified. The APNPO reflects the co-variability between the North Pacific high and South Asian summer monsoon low. This teleconnec- tion pattern is closely related to the Asian summer monsoon. On interannual timescale, it co-varies with both the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); on decadal timescale, it co-varies with the EASM: both exhibit two abrupt climate changes in the middle 1960s and the late 1970s respectively. The possible physical process for the connections between the APNPO and Asian summer monsoon is then explored by analyzing the APNPO-related atmospheric circulations. The results show that with a strong APNPO, the Somali Jet, SASM flow, EASM flow, and South Asian high are all enhanced, and an anomalous anticyclone is produced at the upper level over northeast china via a zonal wave train. Meanwhile, the moisture transportation to the Asian monsoon regions is also strengthened in a strong APNPO year, leading to a strong moisture convergence over India and northern china. All these changes of circulations and moisture conditions finally result in an anoma- lous Asian summer monsoon and monsoon rainfall over India and northern china. In addition, the APNPO has a good persistence from spring to summer. The spring APNPO is also significantly corre- lated with Asian summer monsoon variability. The spring APNPO might therefore provide valuable in- formation for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon.

关键词： Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation East Asian summer monsoon South Asian summer monsoon wave train abrupt climate change

Persistent anomalous flows over the subtropical western Pacific insummer

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Chinese Science Bulletin 1998年第8期43卷 672-675页

作者： ZHUANG Shiyu\+1 and JI Liren\+2 1. National meteorological centre, china meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china 2. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100080, china National meteorological Ccntre China Meteomlcgical Administration Beijing China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

The distribution of global persistent anomalies shows that the subtropical western Pacific is a key region with high_frequency occurrence of persistent anomalies. Analyses of streamfunction anomalies, OLR anomalies etc. suggest that the convective heating related to Indian monsoon might be responsible for the development of WPA. The results of numerical experiment by two linear barotropic models support the observation.

关键词： persistent anomalies subtropical high Indian monsoon anomalous forcing.

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china Academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 1.0081.china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 National meteorological Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 1.0081.china National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,china meteorological administration,beijing 1.0081.china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Multiple time scale evaluation of the energy balance during the maize growing season,and a new reason for energy imbalance

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Science china Earth Sciences 2009年第1期52卷 108-117页

作者： GUO JianXia1,2,BIAN LinGen3 & DAI YongJiu2 1 meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological administration,beijing 1.0081.china 2 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,beijing Normal University,beijing 100875,china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing 1.0081.china meteorological Observation Center of china meteorological administration Beijing China State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

Energy imbalance is a common problem associated with the measurement of surface energy using the eddy covariance *** the evaluation of the energy balance,people usually pay more attention to the statistical result that the effective energy(the sum of sensible and latent heat) is systematically lower than the available energy(the difference of net radiation and ground heat flux).However,little attention has been paid to the existence of the reversed situation when the effective energy is larger than the available energy or their contribution to the overall energy closure *** this paper,based on the analysis of the energy balance on multiple time scales across the maize growth season,we conclude that the non-synchronization of energy components is the main reason for the existence of the reversed *** shifting the phase of the effective energy components half an hour ahead,the rates of energy closure over all time scales are improved and dramatically reduce the number of the half-hourly samples when the energy ratio exceeds 1 or is below *** to the characteristics of the energy distribution and transformation over multiple time scales,latent heat is always the main type of energy cost,and the residual of the energy balance increases with the growth of the maize plant surpassing the sensible heat for seventy *** is suggested that the heat storage and photosynthetic energy play an important role in the energy balance during the growing period of maize.

关键词： maize energy balance multiple time scale energy hysteresis

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 1.0081. china 4 National Climate Center, china meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou China Guangdong Climate Center Guangzhou China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing Climate Center (BCC), china meteorological administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2001年第18期46卷 1497-1502页

作者： CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 2. training Center of Chinese meteorological administration, beijing 1.0081. china Department of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China training Center of Chinese meteorological administration Beijing China

The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction.

关键词： short-term climate numerical prediction defects innovation.