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Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli Ren Laboratory for climate Studies,national climate {3.,China Meteorological Administration,beijing 100081,China Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(PREC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Admin- istration/national climate {3. by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3.region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some *** the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction Predictor Error correction

Teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第7期51卷 1021-1035页

作者： LIU YunYun1,2,3.& DING YiHui2 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, China 2 national climate center, beijing 100081, China 3.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, {3. 100049, China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China national climate center Beijing China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Based on the Indian and Chinese precipitation data and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis circulation data, the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset and the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley has been discussed by the methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis. The results show that the date of ISM onset over Kerala in the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula is about two weeks earlier than the beginning of the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley. After the outbreak of ISM, the teleconnection mode sets up from the western coast of India via the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. It is different both in time and space from the telecon- nection mode which is from the northwest of India via the Tibetan Plateau to northern China. The for- mer mode is defined as the "south" teleconnection of the Asian summer monsoon, forming in the pe- riod of ISM onset; while the latter mode is called the "north" teleconnection, mainly occurring in the Asian monsoon culminant period. During the process of the "south" teleconnection’s formation, the Asian monsoon circulation has experienced a series of important changes: ISM onset, the northward movement of the south Asia high (SAH), the onset vortex occurrence, the eastward extension of the stronger tropical westerly belt, and the northeastward jump of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), etc. Consequently, since ISM sets up over Kerala, the whole Asian continent is covered by the upper SAH after about two weeks, while in the mid- and lower troposphere, a strong wind belt forms from the Arabian Sea via the southern India, BOB and the South China Sea (SCS), then along the western flank of WPSH, to the Yangtze River Valley and southern Japan. With the northward moving of the subtropical jet streams, the upper westerly jet stream and the low level jet have been coupled ver- tically over east Asia, while the Yangtze River Valley happens to locate in the ascending motion

关键词： Indian summer monsoon (ISM) the Meiyu over the Yangtze River Valley teleconnection mode

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3.1 national climate center,China Meteorological Administration,{3. 100081,China 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,{3. 100029,China 3.national Meteorological center,China Meteorological Administration,{3. 100081,China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Possible mechanism of the effect of convection over Asian-Australian “land bridge” on the East Asian summer monsoon onset

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Science China Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1223-1232页

作者： HE Jinhai1, WEN Min2, DING Yihui3.& ZHANG Renhe2 1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing University of Informa- tion Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, China 3. national climate {3., Chinese Meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China national climate center Chinese Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The Asian-Australian “land bridge” is an area with the most vigorous convection in Asian monsoon region in boreal spring, where the onset and march of convection are well associated with the onset of East Asian summer monsoon. The convection occurs over Indo-China Peninsula as early as mid-April, which exerts critical impact on the evolution of monsoon circulation. Before mid-April there are primarily sensible heatings to the atmosphere over Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula, so the apparent heating ratios over them decrease with height. However, after mid-April it changes into latent heating over Indo-China Peninsula due to the onset of convection, and the apparent heating ratio increases with height in mid- and lower troposphere. The vertical distribution of heating ratio and its differences between Indo-China Peninsula and Indian Peninsula are the key factors leading to the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt over the Bay of Bengal. Such mechanism is strongly supported by the fact that the evolution of the vertical heating ratio gradient above Indo-China Peninsula leads that of 850 hPa vorticity over the Bay of Bengal. Convections over Indo-China Peninsula and its surrounding areas further increase after the splitting. Since then, there is a positive feedback lying among the convective heating, the eastward retreat of the subtropical high and the march of monsoon, which is a possible mechanism of the advance of summer monsoon and convection from Indo-China Peninsula to South China Sea.

关键词： Asian-Australian 'land bridge', tropical convection, Indo-China Peninsula, the splitting of boreal subtropical high belt, East Asian summer monsoon onset.

GLOBAL climate CHANGES AND THE TOURISM OF CHINA

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 1996年第2期6卷 97-102页

作者： Ren Guoyu(national climate center,{3.People’s Republic of China) national climate center Beijing 100081 China

The future global climate changes induced by the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is receiving much attention from the scientific community as well as the public. Model simulations and palaeoclimatic data studies show an evident change in temperature and precipitation over China will occur under conditions of the global warming. Possible scenarios of the future climates are given here for China on the basis of synthesizing model simulations and palaeoclimatic data. Most parts of China will experience an increase in temperature, but the warming may be more remarkable in winter in h1e northern half of the country. Increase in precipitation will be seen in nearly every parts of the eastern China, and it will be larger in North and Northeast China. Impacts of the climate changes on the {3. tourism are assessed. Regions suitable for tourisin development in terms of climate comfortable index will shift northward. Some scenic spots and toruism facilities will be damaged due to sea level rise and increased rainfall. Some regions will benefit from the dimate change, but the tourism industry as a whole will be negatively affected.

关键词： IPCC GLOBAL climate CHANGES AND THE TOURISM OF CHINA

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3. DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China 2 Guangdong climate center, Guangzhou 510080, China 3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, China 4 {3. climate center, China Meteorological Administration, beijing 100081, China Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing climate center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3. In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13. respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 3. d, 3.d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Inertial theory of the mean Hadley circulation under the condition of nonstatic equilibrium

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Science China Earth Sciences 2006年第5期49卷 546-553页

作者： CHAO Jiping1 & LIU Fei2,3.1. national Marine Environmental Forecasting center, beijing 100081, China 2. Key Laboratory Regional {3.-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100029, China 3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100049, China national Marine Environmental Forecasting center Key Laboratory Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Tropical atmosphere is divided into two layers, the layer near the ground is the planet boundary layer, where the motion is linear, if the radiation equilibrium temperature is given at the top of the boundary layer, the vertical motion there can be obtained. It is the non-viscous ideal atmos- pheric layer above the boundary one, where the motion is nonlinear. After getting the conservation laws of angular momentum, potential temperature and potential vortex, the inertial theory of the Hadley circulation driven by the vertical motion of the boundary layer is established, followed by sev- eral examples of its application.

关键词： Hadley circulation, inertial theory, conservation laws of angular momentum, potential temperature and potential vortex.

Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai

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Science China Earth Sciences 2005年第7期48卷 939-949页

作者： SHAO Xuemei1, HUANG Lei1, LIU Hongbin2, LIANG Eryuan1, FANG Xiuqi3.& WANG Lili1 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100101, China 2. national climate {3., beijing 100081, China 3. beijing Normal University, beijing 100875, China Institute of Geographic Sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China national climate center Beijing 100081 China beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Using seven well-replicated Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies developed at Zongwulong and Shalike Mts. in the northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin annual precipitation from previous July to current June in the recent 1000 years was re- constructed for Delingha. The reconstruction can capture 63.1% of precipitation variance and the equation was stable over time. For the reconstructed precipitation, wet periods occurred in AD1520—163. and 193.—2001, whereas dry intervals in 1429—1519 and 163.—1741. In ad- dition, the magnitude in precipitation variation was lower before 143. with about 15 mm, but it increased to 3. mm during the period of 143. to 1850. After 1850, the precipitation variance de- creased again. In contrast to the increase in temperature, a decrease in annual precipitation was evident since the 1990s. The agreement in low-frequency variation between the reconstruction and the glacier accumulation and particulate content in Dunde ice cores during the recent several hundred years suggested that the precipitation reconstructed in this study was rather reliable, and represented a regional signal. This 1000-year reconstruction could benefit our understanding of climatic variation in decadal to century-scale in this region, and provide basic data to climate models and to prediction of future climate in the 21st century.

关键词： northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin tree-ring width series of Qilian juniper precipitation reconstruction in 1000 years.

The relationship between the canonical ENSO and the phase transition of the Antarctic oscillation at the quasi-quadrennial timescale

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2010年第6期29卷 26-34页

作者： LIU Changzheng XUE Feng national climate center Beijing 100081 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

A correlation analysis is performed to investigate the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and the Antarctic oscillation （AAO） at the quasi-quadrennial （QQ） *** is found that the cold tongue index （CTI） and the AAO index （AAOI） are negatively correlated with about a 7-month lead-time,while they are positively correlated with about a 15-month *** further explore this relationship,complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is employed in the QQ sea level pressure （SLP） anomalies from 1951 to *** results indicate that,during the ENSO cycle,there exists one kind of global tropical wave of wavenumber 1 （GTW1） propagating *** the traveling of GTW1,the tropical SLP anomaly tends to intrude into the southern ***,three strong signals travel synchronously along the circumSouth-Pacific path,and a relatively weak signal extends eastward and poleward over the South Ocean in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean *** the propagation of these signals,the AAO phase tends to be reversed *** a result,there exists an evident lead-lag correlation between CTI and *** can be concluded that ENSO plays a key role in the phase transition of AAO at the QQ *** is also noticed that this regular relationship is only evident in the canonical ENSO events,for which sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies extend westward from the tropical eastern *** the other hand,the similar relationships are not found among those atypical ENSO events for which SST anomalies spread eastward from the central Pacific,such as the 1982-1983.ENSO event.

关键词： ENSO Antarctic oscillation the quasi-quadrennial timescale the global tropical wave of wavenumber 1