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Relationship and its instability of ENSO--chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

Science China Earth sciences 2007年第1期50卷 145-152页

作者： SU MingFeng1,2 & WANG HuiJun1 1 nansen-zhu international {3. Center, {3., chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10003., China nansen-zhu international {3. Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100039 China nansen-zhu international {3. Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3.decades climate changes over China, especially North China's drying and northwest China's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3.8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962 and 1976―1991, but low during 1963.1975 and 1992―2000.

关键词： PDSI variations droughts and wet Spells ENSO instability.

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Use of the advanced microwave sounding unit data to improve typhoon prediction

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials international 2009年第3期19卷 369-376页

作者： Guo Deng a,*, Dalin Zhang b, Tong zhu c, Angsheng Wang d a National Meteorological Center, beijing 100081, China b Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, Maryland 20742, USA c Cooperative {3. for {3. in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Colorado 80523. USA d institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China National Meteorological Center Beijing 100081 China Department of atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland Maryland 20742 USA Cooperative institute for research in the Atmosphere Colorado State University Colorado 80523 USA institute of atmospheric physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The effects of incorporating the advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU-A) data with a modified zhu-Zhang-Weng vortex- bogussing algorithm on typhoon prediction are examined through the use of the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The AMSU-A data contain the vertical distribution of the retrieved temperature from satellite brightness temperature, with the geopo- tential height and wind fields derived through a series of statistical and diagnostic calculations. The advantages of the modified vortex- bogussing algorithm include the incorporation of realistic asymmetric typhoon structures, the balanced dynamics with the background field, the easiness to implement and the effcient computations. To test the effciency of this vortex-bogussing algorithm, the Typhoon Dan event in 1999 is simulated by incorporating the derived AMSU-A fields into the initial conditions of the MM5 modeling system. Results show significant improvements in the track and intensity of the storm, as compared to the simulation without the AMSU-A data. Therefore, this modified vortex-bogussing algorithm can be easily implemented on any typhoon modeling system, which will improve the real-time forecast of tropical cyclones.

关键词： AMSU Satellite retrieval Typhoon prediction

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Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

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Science Bulletin 2005年第17期 109-115页

作者： JIANG Dabang1, 2 & WANG Huijun1 1. nansen-zhu international {3. Center, {3., chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment {3. for Tem-perate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948―2002 as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmos-pheric research, it is revealed that East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are re-corded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models’ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro-nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.

关键词： East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal weakening global warming natural change.

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Covarying modes of the Pacific SST and northern hemispheric midlatitude atmospheric circulation anomalies during winter

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials international 2008年第10期18卷 1261-1270页

作者： Yimin zhu~(a,b,*) Xiuqun Yang~a Qian Xie~b Yongqiang Yu~c ~a Department of A tmospheric Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093.China ~b institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China ~c LASG,institute of atmospheric physics,{3.,{3.,China Department of atmospheric Science Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology Nanjing 211101 China LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The interannual-to-interdecadal relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the northern hemispheric midlati- tude’s atmosphere represented by the circumpolar vortex was documented with the global oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data of recent 50 *** covarying modes of the Pacific SST and northern circumpolar vortex anomalies during winter were examined using the sin- gular value decomposition and wavelet analysis *** is the interannual,ENSO-related mode and the other is the interdecadal, North Pacific SST-related mode with a period of around 20 *** two modes exhibit distinct spatial *** the interannual mode,the SST anomaly is characterized by a typical ENSO pattern with the principal signature in the tropical eastern Pacific and secondary one in the central North Pacific,while the atmospheric anomaly is regional,characterized by a Pacific-North American *** the inter- decadal mode,large SST anomaly is located in the central North Pacific,while the atmospheric anomaly is zonally global,associated with the midlatitute’s standing long-wave *** the central North Pacific is colder,the long-wave is stronger,and vice *** investigations suggest that the interdecadal mode could involve an interaction between "two oceans and an atmosphere".

关键词： Sea surface temperature atmospheric circulation ENSO Decadal variability

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Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

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Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 892-901页

作者： YAN Qing1,2*, ZHANG ZhongShi3.1*, WANG HuiJun1,4, JIANG DaBang1,4,5 & ZHENG WeiPeng6 1 nansen-zhu international {3. {3., institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, China 3.Bjerknes {3. for Climate {3., Uni{3., Bergen N-5007, Norway 4 Climate Change {3. Center, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China 5 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment {3. for Temperate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China 6 National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, China nansen-zhu international {3. {3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Bjerknes centre for Climate research UniResearch Climate Change research Center Chinese Academy

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3.to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3.C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3.data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词： Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature permanent El Ni?o numerical modeling extreme warming

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Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian Paleoenvironmental Patterns

Impact of Topography and Land-Sea Distribution on East Asian...

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中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所2006学术年会

作者： ZHANG Zhongshi~(1,2),WANG Huijun~2,GUO Zhengtang~(3.1),and JIANG Dabang~2 1 institute of Geology and Geophysics,chinese academy of sciences,{3. 2 nansen-zhu international research Center,institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,{3. 3.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,institute of Earth Environment, chinese academy of sciences,Xi’an 710075

Much geological research has illustrated the transition of paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating the initiation of the East Asian monsoon and inland-type ***,there is a dispute about the causes and mechanisms of the transition,especially about the impact of the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea *** numerical sensitivity experiments under dirent land-sea distributions and Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau topography conditions are performed here to simulate the evolution of climate belts with emphasis on changes in the rain band,and these are compared with the changes in the paleoenvironmental patterns during the Cenozoic recovered by geological *** consistency between simulations and the geological evidence indicates that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern. Furthermore,the simulations show the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern comes into being when the Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau reaches 1000-2000 m high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.

关键词： Paratethys Sea retreat Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau uplift paleoenvironmental pattern precipitation field Turan Plate

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A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation on the dust aerosol distribution

A Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) and its simulation o...

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中国气象学会2008年年会大气环境监测、预报与污染物控制分会场

作者： Xu Yue1,2, Huijun Wang1, Zifa Wang1 and Ke Fan11nansen-zhu international {3. Center, {3., chinese academy of sciences, beijing, China. 2Graduate School of the chinese academy of sciences, beijing, China.

A new global three-dimensional transport model of mineral dust aerosols is developed and evaluated. The dust model is embedded in a general circulation model with conservative dynamical core and unique consideration of the polar transportation, which make the model stable in simulations. Comprehensive parameterizations of the emission and deposition processes from Wang et al. [2000] are modified to match the surface conditions and meteorological fields of the climate model. A 20-year simulation from the dust model gives an estimation of dust mobilization of 1974 ± 3. Tg yr-1 and a global dust burden of about 25 Tg for the particles smaller than 10 μm. The vertical distribution, temporal variation on different time scales and surface concentration of the simulated mineral dust aerosols are compared with both observations and simulations from other models. The evaluation results show that the new dust model has the ability to reproduce the principal features of global dust transportation. The main deficiency of the model is the underestimation of the dust activity in East Asia during spring and the overestimation of the concentration in Central Pacific, which have also been reported by other model simulations. The global mean optical thickness of dust at 0.63.μm is 0.028 ± 0.004 in the model, which is comparable to the magnitude of sulphate aerosols. Such result indicates that both anthropogenic and natural sources need to be considered when evaluating the climate feedback of aerosols.

关键词： mineral dust aerosols, transport model, emission and deposition, optical thickness

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Studies on wind environment around high buildings in urban areas

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Science China Earth sciences 2005年第Z2期48卷 102-115页

作者： LIU Huizhi, JIANG Yujun, LIANG Bin, zhu Fengrong, ZHANG Boyin & SANG Jianguo LAPC, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, {3., China Department of {3. sciences, School of physics, Peking University, beijing 1000871, China State Key Laboratory of Turbulence and Complex System, Peking University, beijing 1000871, China LAPC Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Department of atmospheric sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 1000871 China State Key Laboratory of Turbulence and Complex System Peking University Beijing 1000871 China

High buildings or architectural complex in urban areas remarkably distort the urban surface wind fields. As the air flow approaches,local strong wind may appear around the buildings. The strong wind makes the pedestrians on sidewalks, entrances and terrace very uncomfortable and causes the pedestrian level wind environment problem. In this studies, hot-wire wind measurement, wind scouring in wind tunnel and numerical computation were carried out to evaluate the wind environment of tall buildings in the prevailing flow conditions in beijing areas. The results obtained by three techniques were compared and mutually verified. The conclusions drawn from three approaches agree with each other. Also the advantages and limitations of each method were analyzed. It is suggested that the combination of different techniques may produce better assessment of wind environment around high buildings.

关键词： high buildings in urban areas, wind environment, wind tunnel, numerical simulation.

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利用归一化植被指数研究植被分类、面积估算和不确定性分析的进展

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气候与环境研究 2004年第4期9卷 687-696页

作者：陈朝晖朱江徐兴奎中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心北京100029

植被在全球生态系统中扮演着重要的角色。陆地生态系统与全球气候变化也是息息相关。利用遥感资料对植被进行分类 ,并估算植被覆盖面积已成为一个极具活力的研究方向 ,其结果的准确度及误差来源受到不同程度的重视。作者对利用遥感资料... 详细信息

植被在全球生态系统中扮演着重要的角色。陆地生态系统与全球气候变化也是息息相关。利用遥感资料对植被进行分类 ,并估算植被覆盖面积已成为一个极具活力的研究方向 ,其结果的准确度及误差来源受到不同程度的重视。作者对利用遥感资料研究植被分类 ,进行面积估算 ,分析其不确定性三个方面的研究进展进行了回顾和讨论 ,探索进一步利用遥感资料分析植被信息的可行性。

关键词：归一化植被指数植被分类面积估算不确定性

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年际增量的预测方法在北大西洋飓风频次的季节预测(英文)

年际增量的预测方法在北大西洋飓风频次的季节预测(英文)

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第28届中国气象学会年会

作者： Ke Fan1,2 1 nansen-zhu international {3. Center,{3.,chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100029,China 2 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment {3. for Temperate East Asia chinese academy of Science,beijing 100029,China

基于年际增量的预测方法发展高效的飓风季节（6月1日-11月3.日）内大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风）频次的预测模型。首先预测大西洋热带风暴频次的年际增量再预测大西洋热带风暴频次。通过以下两个途径考察年际增量预测方法的应用潜力:（1... 详细信息

基于年际增量的预测方法发展高效的飓风季节（6月1日-11月3.日）内大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风）频次的预测模型。首先预测大西洋热带风暴频次的年际增量再预测大西洋热带风暴频次。通过以下两个途径考察年际增量预测方法的应用潜力:（1）将年际增量的预测方法分别与原始变量线性和非线性Poisson预测模型比较（图）;（2）与Gray等（2009,2010）发展大西洋热带风暴频次的预测系统比较。研究表明,年际增量的方法及预测模型有较高的预测技巧。相对于大西洋热带风暴的气候预测平均的绝对误差4.1,在2004-2009年际增量的预测模型预测技巧提高了29%,1985-2009的交叉检验的回报的预测技巧提高46%,高于同期Gray等（2009,2010）的预测技巧。作者已基于年际增量的方法发展了有效的东亚夏季降水、气温,西太平洋台风频次和登陆气旋数的预测模型,此项工作表明它还可以应用到大西洋热带风暴（包括飓风频次）的季节预测中。

关键词： year-by-year increment Atlantic named tropical storm prediction model

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